Is the crypto winter over?

[NoahA]

I'm not trading btc short term, the volatility was too stressful for me,

I feel the same thing. I had to get out of my 2x BITX ETF in one account because I didn't want to see it drop. These leveraged plays have downsides. But if I'm trading these new ETFs with so little fees, I doubt I would be worried about even a trip down to 50k because I know its coming back, and there is no decay. But with even 2x leverage, if it takes 1 month to recover, the position does take a hit.

Its interesting looking at the BITO vs BTC chart. It has yet to break ATH. Its a futures product, not leveraged, but I guess there is still decay. Imagine holding this long term. Of course no need to now with the ETFs.

I decided to put in a bunch of sell orders for my SOL position. Gonna start liquidating at around $190 and sell 1 SOL for each dollar higher. Already set 1/3 of the sell orders, just before it tanked... LOL. Hopefully that wasn't the top! But I figure if we are just getting started for this bull market, and since SOL is showing serious strength compared to the other alts, it should break ATHs at least. I understand that many alts will never come back, but SOL seems to be growing in adoption so I expect higher prices and my orders to be filled.

 

[schizo]

I'm not trading btc short term, the volatility was too stressful for me

These leveraged plays have downsides. But if I'm trading these new ETFs with so little fees...

I've been also thinking about switching over to daytrading one of these bitcoin ETFs. They seem to have good liquidity with small enough spreads that makes it worth considering.

 

[NoahA]

I've been also thinking about switching over to daytrading one of these bitcoin ETFs. They seem to have good liquidity with small enough spreads that makes it worth considering.

IBIT would have the best spreads I think since they have the biggest volume. And my thinking is that if I'm caught in a drawdown, like now, if its not a leveraged play, it will just come back. So just hold it. Of course I've also missed out on big profits over just holding because of the intense rally, but that will slow down at some point. It would be kind of like what @theapprentice is doing in the ES thread. He just buys every dip and waits... LOL... But with bitcoin, I know that's going up, but with ES, who knows.

 

[schizo]

But with bitcoin, I know that's going up,

Well, I hate to break it to ya, but it doesn't look all that good ATM. From a technical point of view, this looks downright ugly. The horizontal line is the previous ATH in 2021, which we really shouldn't have breached, and the diagonal is the obvious trendline albeit an important one IMO. Let's see how it goes, but damn I don't trust this at all.

(It shouldn't have fallen this much in the first place.)

 

[NoahA]

Let's see how it goes, but damn I don't trust this at all.

I'm focused more on the narrative. If ETFs continue to buy and have net inflows, then price has to go higher. Saylor is also buying again this weekend I think. Even if it takes a month to break 73k, I think there is nothing wrong with that. I hardly doubt that the top for this cycle is already in.

The first week was technically also down, even though there were net inflows into the ETFs from the very first day. So I think this is just a blimp, and although the PA might not look good, I just don't think bitcoin is gonna follow traditional PA all that much.

 

[jbusse]

I feel the same thing. I had to get out of my 2x BITX ETF in one account because I didn't want to see it drop. These leveraged plays have downsides. But if I'm trading these new ETFs with so little fees, I doubt I would be worried about even a trip down to 50k because I know its coming back, and there is no decay. But with even 2x leverage, if it takes 1 month to recover, the position does take a hit.

Its interesting looking at the BITO vs BTC chart. It has yet to break ATH. Its a futures product, not leveraged, but I guess there is still decay. Imagine holding this long term. Of course no need to now with the ETFs.

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I decided to put in a bunch of sell orders for my SOL position. Gonna start liquidating at around $190 and sell 1 SOL for each dollar higher. Already set 1/3 of the sell orders, just before it tanked... LOL. Hopefully that wasn't the top! But I figure if we are just getting started for this bull market, and since SOL is showing serious strength compared to the other alts, it should break ATHs at least. I understand that many alts will never come back, but SOL seems to be growing in adoption so I expect higher prices and my orders to be filled.

BITO has a significant dividend yield, about 12.4% the past 12 months. Adding a couple years of that back to your BITO chart and it's about the same as BTC.

 

[NoahA]

Oh, and technically, this drop isn't nearly as large as the earlier one on March 5 yet, and that came off an initial rejection at ATH. So I guess as ugly as it is, its not actually ugly.

 

[johnarb]

I'm focused more on the narrative. If ETFs continue to buy and have net inflows, then price has to go higher. Saylor is also buying again this weekend I think. Even if it takes a month to break 73k, I think there is nothing wrong with that. I hardly doubt that the top for this cycle is already in.

The first week was technically also down, even though there were net inflows into the ETFs from the very first day. So I think this is just a blimp, and although the PA might not look good, I just don't think bitcoin is gonna follow traditional PA all that much.

Yup, feel the same way, think we'll be back to $73k by Monday

I'm actually tempted to do a short term long perp futures btc trade when I get back home if btc is still below 68k

popcat is all time high right now, no worthy pullback to buy the dip on my alt position

 

[NoahA]

BITO has a significant dividend yield, about 12.4% the past 12 months. Adding a couple years of that back to your BITO chart and it's about the same as BTC.

Really?? How? I thought it was an ETF based on bitcoin futures, so I'm not understanding where the dividend comes from. But if this explains the price discrepancy, and when you add it back in the price tracks properly, then that is really good!

 

[schizo]

I'm focused more on the narrative. If ETFs continue to buy and have net inflows, then price has to go higher. Saylor is also buying again this weekend I think. Even if it takes a month to break 73k, I think there is nothing wrong with that. I hardly doubt that the top for this cycle is already in.

The first week was technically also down, even though there were net inflows into the ETFs from the very first day. So I think this is just a blimp, and although the PA might not look good, I just don't think bitcoin is gonna follow traditional PA all that much.

Well I hope you're right. But I've seen so many similar PAs in the past that it's hard to merely shrug it off. These so-called "inflows" in my view are merely the late comers, aka the dumb money who end up as bag holders. The selling you see now are orchestrated by the smart money. Anyway, it's too early to tell but I wouldn't overleverage myself if I were you.