Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
LOL Dude, this was same shit that I was talking about in the past and yet you didn't believe me.
Also most people mistakenly think the futures is the tail because it's a mere derivative of the spot market. But it really isn't, since the notional is MUCH MUCH greater than the spot. This isn't just Bitcoin, it's the same for other futures market as well. If you can manipulate the futures market, you can manipulate the cash market as well.
I wish they would manipulate down to 60k. I have plenty of buy orders waiting to get hit!
If futures really do set the price, what happens when there is no spot available at that price?
And now that ETF is available, it would be even easier to wag the tail. But it's worth noting that this is used more often to pump up the price rather than to drive it down.
Next price!
Right, but my point is if futures say price is 60k, but what if exchanges don't have any at that price? I thought the price is set by the prices at several exchanges. But you are suggesting the futures price can move independently of the exchange price. Futures never deal with delivery, but exchanges have to worry about delivery. So I don't see how futures can be used as a way to price Bitcoin for delivery.Next price!
Yes, sorry I remember you said this as well, I did not believe Blackrock or Fidelity would do such a thing since why risk their trillions of AUM for a measly billions of $ position on bitcoin. Apparently it's not illegal(?)
It looks like a double attack operation
The 2nd thread from Whalepanda is about a big whale margin long position 110k btc's
It's been unwinding/selling into the btc spot etf's buying and is down to 47k. Once it's down, bitcoin goes up much stronger than now
Under normal circumstances, the futures and the spot prices will move in lockstep. Whenever they diverge, the arbs would step in and take advantage, thereby bringing the two back in balance. But there are times, especially with high vol, when the futures would temporarily diverge and create an imbalance, such as when there's a flurry of stops being triggered or shorts getting squeezed. During those times, the futures would usually lead the spot price.
First, AFAIK Bitcoin futures are settled in cash and don't take delivery among traders, whereas the physical exchanges do swap bitcoins among the two counterparties. So when the futures trade at 60k, it has no direct impact on the spot prices as far as delivery is concerned (viz. "price Bitcoin for delivery"). But it can lead the spot price down (or up) by creating these sudden spurts of price imbalance as mentioned above. And these can be manipulated by big whales. I'm not entirely sure this is the reply you were looking for.
We are getting close. I agree with everything you are saying. But I guess the best way to illustrate what I am saying is with an analogy of price controls. The government can set the price of bread let's say but a bakery cannot produce it because the cost of flour is more than the maximum price that they can sell the bread for. So then there is no bread. Likewise, if the futures price gets so far away from where spot price is, then there won't be any supply. So how can you have the future price saying one thing when spot price is saying that the only seller is two times higher? This would show the manipulation. And this is also why I think it has to be the spot price that leads and not the futures price.I'm not entirely sure this is the reply you were looking for.