Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
The Twitter thread on Jesse Myers above has interesting comments... we're seeing the data clearly, the daily and weekly ETF's bitcoin purchases are public... and yet, it's like we live inside a bubble that no one else is paying attention to
Does everyone else not inside this bubble believe that the ETF daily inflows will suddenly decrease? Like overnight, there will be 0 inflows to Blackrock or Fidelity or that there will be massive outflows?
Otherwise, FUCK! this is the greatest insider info the btc market is signaling.... prolly nothing...
Low time preference is a skill we've all learned as Bitcoiners. We shall continue to wait
Does everyone else not inside this bubble believe that the ETF daily inflows will suddenly decrease? Like overnight, there will be 0 inflows to Blackrock or Fidelity or that there will be massive outflows?
Otherwise, FUCK! this is the greatest insider info the btc market is signaling.... prolly nothing...
Low time preference is a skill we've all learned as Bitcoiners. We shall continue to wait
I saw this also on Twitter, but some people pointed out that 6K coins is an incredibly small account, and that Glassnode only survered 3 OTC desks, so this was hardly exhaustive. I of course also fully agree that there is a supply shock coming, but this chart only shows maybe good trend, but its not the full picture.
I think we need to consider that there is about 100k extra coins that went into the ETFs, above and beyond what went out of GBTC, and they had to come from somewhere. The chart above has the highest reading at only 8k coins, so I think its fair to say that this chart is only a drop in the ocean of what is out there.
But to end off with a bullish tweet, I saw this post the other day. Based on this chart, it suggests a cycle top of 1.7-2.2m.
https://x.com/danieleripoll/status/1758319810335871148?s=20
Holy mother of god…..I’m gonna sell my fishing boat and buy more bitcoin! That chart is going to be my new wallpaper. We should all print it and hang it in public places!
Yes, fully agree with you that this chart only highlights the trend situation at OTC desks, which are deals that have some kind of conditions. I would guess the conditions are imposed by the sellers' (i.e. +10% to +20% above Coinbase price for a block of 1000 or 5,000 or newly mined coins free of tainted history)
Otherwise, if there is no premium, the sellers can just sell limit on Coinbase. A little bit of ancient history, I was selling on LocalBitcoins in 2013 premium of +15%, picking up at MoneyGram locations, then turning around and buying same amount at Coinbase... until I found out it was illegal without an MSB license and quickly stopped
Anyway, even with what I assume is a premium, the OTC desks are not attracting sellers to keep the inventory at a high level. The ETF's are going to exchanges for sure as they need to buy by end of day, from what I understand
That is also the reason I mentioned Jesse Myers Twitter thread as the OTC deals have their own limits
Bottom line:
We've never had a cycle where every business day in the US, there is a buy order of hundreds of millions of $ for bitcoins, is it going to end?
The halving is in a couple of months, the supplies of new bitcoins is going to get cut in half, 80% of the existing bitcoins have not moved in a year...
This bull market cycle is very, very different than previous ones and I think the ETF issuers understand this
In the beginning, Blackrock and Fidelity were neck in neck, the past week or so, Blackrock buyers have turned up the heat... things are not slowing down
I cannot give any more wild price targets until bitcoin passes $69k, though, my promise to schizo
I’d like to hear the pitch BR is giving to potential large ETF investorsYes, fully agree with you that this chart only highlights the trend situation at OTC desks, which are deals that have some kind of conditions. I would guess the conditions are imposed by the sellers' (i.e. +10% to +20% above Coinbase price for a block of 1000 or 5,000 or newly mined coins free of tainted history)
Otherwise, if there is no premium, the sellers can just sell limit on Coinbase. A little bit of ancient history, I was selling on LocalBitcoins in 2013 premium of +15%, picking up at MoneyGram locations, then turning around and buying same amount at Coinbase... until I found out it was illegal without an MSB license and quickly stopped
Anyway, even with what I assume is a premium, the OTC desks are not attracting sellers to keep the inventory at a high level. The ETF's are going to exchanges for sure as they need to buy by end of day, from what I understand
That is also the reason I mentioned Jesse Myers Twitter thread as the OTC deals have their own limits
Bottom line:
We've never had a cycle where every business day in the US, there is a buy order of hundreds of millions of $ for bitcoins, is it going to end?
The halving is in a couple of months, the supplies of new bitcoins is going to get cut in half, 80% of the existing bitcoins have not moved in a year...
This bull market cycle is very, very different than previous ones and I think the ETF issuers understand this
In the beginning, Blackrock and Fidelity were neck in neck, the past week or so, Blackrock buyers have turned up the heat... things are not slowing down
I cannot give any more wild price targets until bitcoin passes $69k, though, my promise to schizo
Wait a minute. This is very interesting to me as I have no idea how an OTC desk works. The idea always was, I thought, to move large quantities without moving the price. But you of course have to wonder why the person who has more to gain would agree to this. If you want to buy at 50k, but worry that your orders that are broken up push price up to 51k, then the seller would of course be happy to sell at the higher end. So it makes sense that in order to sell a large block, the seller will want to take the higher price now since he knows the buyer would end up pushing the price there anyway, so asking for a premium for a large quantity makes sense. But at the same time, how is an ETF going to eat the extra 20% premium paid over the spot price? if I buy the ETF when its trading at 50k, but the block trade is done at 53k at the end of the day, it would mean I'm actually down, so I have to think this through. Very interesting...
I knew it... you're way more advanced than I thought. All along I figured you're just an average guy who got into bitcoin and slowly started to accumulate, but it seems that you are way more of an OG than I first though! Wasn't SBF doing this very same thing? And if I recall, the problem always was how to move so much cash because he was moving it between US and Asia from what I somewhat recall.
This is exactly why I think the 4 year cycle model won't work the same way anymore. On the flip side, with so much bitcoin locked away, and with price being set at the margins, it means that perhaps even a smaller amount of bitcoin traded can push price. So will the pumps and dumps actually be bigger? It has always been thrown around that roughly 2m bitcoins were on exchanges. But when price dumps, its probably only 10k or 20k coins that are actually traded. If ETFs gobble up more bitcoin, perhaps now only 2k or 5k bitcoins exchanging will be enough to cause a 20% pump or dump... is this possible?
Real estate for example is very difficult to price right now because there are so few transactions. The sellers almost seem to be in control in some markets because a buyer who has the cash has limited options, so they are forced to bid higher for the few houses for sale. These few sales literally price the whole market, but the reason there are so few sales is because people are locked into their houses, or priced out from buying. We need forced sellers for the price to drop. So although anecdotally real estate has way lower values today, the prices don't reflect that yet.
I cannot give any more wild price targets until bitcoin passes $69k, though, my promise to schizo
Who cares about schizo... he makes most of his money trading ES!!!
So lets hear it!On a side note, I started to think a bit more about what deaddog said. He is only trading BITO, while I'm going into BITX for the 2x leverage. My biggest holding is the BITB ETF, from Bitwise, since they support the core devs. One of my fears of the ETFs is them losing the coins. I want to have significant exposure to the ETFs because its in a tax free account, but also because its easier to sell. I don't want to sell the coins in cold storage that are spread out over multiple UTXO's. I literally want to wait until my UTXO with 1m sats is actually a very significant amount of money.
But its almost like even though the fee on something like BITO, futures based, might be higher than BITB, spot based, and maybe there is a bit of decay with the futures product as well... it might almost be safer since all it does is track the price. There is no way for a rugpull, even if accidental. I'm sure nobody is going to insure a bitcoin ETF and provide $10B in insurance. Remember those stories from months ago where some transactions had like 60 BTC fees paid to the miner cause the sender fucker up? I think those miners returned the fees, but still, its a huge risk. It doesn't take much for someone to fuck up and those bitcoin are gone, and although I'm not sure what would happen, the ETF going to zero is a remote possibility.
This is very true, I don't know what the price premiums that would be acceptable to both parties. In the past, 10-15 even 20% premium when price was $1,000 or less was nothing, but now, even a 10% premium is $5k and as far as miner premiums of 15% for newly minted bitcoins, I think that has not been a concern as much as it was in the past
Haha, it wasn't advanced at all. It was more like eBay buying and selling (except it was illegal, some people got arrested and made the news and that's when I stopped)
LocalBitcoins was very popular in the past, by its name, it was really geared towards in-person buying, the site is the escrow, and like eBay, reputation is everything (ratings), similar to the darknet marketplaces, but I digress
However, besides in-person meetup/exchanges, LocalBitcoins allowed for money remittances, enter MoneyGram and Western Union sellers. I did MoneyGram only as it was convenient for me, there's a few RiteAid places around the cities that I frequented
This was no KYC transactions when the big gubmnts had not cracked down on LocalBitcoins, then they had to institute KYC, but getting out of the subject, the premium was built-in to the site, you can click +10% or +15% or even a custom % on top of Bitstamp price, so it automatically adjusted even when you sleep
I was also a buyer for a long time before I tried selling, because if you can find an online remittance company that accepted credit cards, then you could buy bitcoins that way, which I did since I didn't have extra money, lol, and Coinbase did not accept credit cards at that time. The other thing with this is that you can buy from remote places like in South America or Asia, as long as you can send remittances. One last note on this was the farthest buyer I had was from Poland
PaxFul was another p2p marketplace, I bought items on Amazon wishlist, not bad if you're an Amazon Prime member anyway but the premiums were even higher than LocalBitcoins
This is nothing like the arb-trades big millions of $ that SBF claimed he did with the Kimchi trades premiums on Korean exchanges/Japanese markets
I am very anxious for the next 2 years, this hundreds of millions of $ of bitcoin buying every US business day is just mind-boggling. Will it ever slow down or even turn negative?
Something interesting that is happening is the outflows from gold funds at this time that we're getting massive inflows to bitcoin spot etf's, this could be the start of what we've talked about, bitcoin will demonetize gold, and we know the price of bitcoin when it flips gold market cap
And while that happens, I would be surprised if the REIT's or real estate funds don't start bleeding out as the funds start going into the bitcoin spot etf's
And then at some point, the bond funds, tech/growth funds... in no particular order
- Bitcoin will demonetize all of these store-of-value, money-proxy assets
But let's not get ahead of ourselves... If the bitcoin spot etf inflows start to dry up, then perhaps that thesis is not correct. Everyday and every week, we watch...
I heard a stat yesterday that said the ETFs have been buying roughly 9k BTC per day while current mining only produces about 900 BTC per day. I’m still rolling that around in my head. Curious to hear what you guys think of it. My experience with supply/demand numbers is entirely in raw material commodities and I’ve never seen a spread of those proportions.
Bitcoin supply is inelastic, doesn't matter the demand nor the price, only 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes (on average)
If bitcoin price goes to $100k tomorrow, the same 900 bitcoins will not increase, if gold goes to $10k/oz tomorrow, there will be more gold being mined per day
The bitcoin spot etf's is something that we've never had before... a demand that keeps buying regardless of price
In April, the mining rewards (new bitcoins) will be reduced by half, 3.125 per block (every 10 minutes) or 450 bitcoins/day