Is the crypto winter over?

[NoahA]

I still don't think it's a good idea to average down. It's just a bad habit that will ultimately bite you in the ass somewhere down the road. Most traders that blow up are usually those who take on big risk, and martingal happens to be the biggest culprit.

Anyway, if you're already holding spot bitcoin, why bother adding more needless risk with the ETFs? I would simply use ETF as a hedge instead.

Simply because I do believe we are in a bull market, and I have studied the effects. Here I compare BTC spot vs. BITX. I highlight 4 different areas to compare, although I'm not suggesting you can time these entries precisely. Obviously during a drop, the 2x BITX drops faster, and here, shown via the black calculator, we see a drop of 20% for spot vs 40% for BITX.

If you somehow timed the bottom last September and entered long, shown in the green color, BTC is up 95% vs. BITX up 225% (no idea why its more than double.)

What if you enter right at the beginning when BITX starts trading, shown via red, and you suffer the drop and then climb back up. Spot gets you +53% vs +83% for the 2x BITX.

And the worst case scenario is shown in yellow. You start at the beginning, but for some reason get out when BTC dipped down to 38k just a week ago. Spot has you up 21%, but BITX was up only 10%, so it under-perfomed.

Obviously for a long term hold and with prices dropping, it can get dangerous, but I do think a move up to ATH's is pretty much guaranteed, and the halving coming up in less than 2 months should also help the bull thesis. I do also plan to take profits along the way, and because I will be scaling in at lower prices, it means that an eventual bounce, even during a downtrend, will greatly improve the math of how this all works.

Clearly if I was doing this when bitcoin was 69k, if BITX existed, then the move down to 16k would be a catastrophe, but I really do think the worst is behind us now.

 

[NoahA]

I was thinking tonight about how I argued with John a few years back as he was calling out each $1k that bitcoin went higher, and so I decided to look up those posts. I haven't gotten there yet, but its interesting to read my first few posts in the crypto forum.

I'm like a fucking Michael Saylor, (without the huge bitcoin stash.. LOL)... but I completely went 180 just like him. This is what I said back then....

So in my opinion, BTC will never be a store of value. Its a great tool to trade and gamble, but it will never achieve "store of value" status.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/selling-bitcoin.356020/#post-5323235

I also said this...

So maybe it makes sense to hold a few percent of your net worth in BTC and accept that you might lose it all

And now most of my money is in bitcoin.

And here is the first time I seem to be arguing with John. Funny enough, it was over Tether, and I even mention in another post how @RedDuke was right!!! Tether obviously hasn't collapsed yet, and even though I wouldn't personally hold tether long term, its interesting to see my thought process.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-price-thread.315402/page-305#post-5331799

All of this was happening in February 2021, and by the end of 2021, I was already scooping up big chunks of bitcoin. What a shame that my timing was so bad. If I had only started in February of 2020, just before Covid hit, I could have done my research, and by summer and fall gotten to participate in that amazing rally.

 

[NoahA]

And I found the post I was looking for!!!! Here is what I said...

If BTC is so wonderful, why does it need the constant pumping?

John says: What do you mean?

Your constant updates each time BTC goes 1k higher. You don't seem to update us when it drops 1k.

The SEC might come down hard on this pump and dump scheme... LOL

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bitcoin-price-thread.315402/page-301#post-5328194

Jesus christ... what a humbling experience. Please accept my apologies John.

Edit: Further down I say.... "I do of course believe it will go higher, but I also think it will be zero one day as the market will move to a coin that is more superior."

 

[NoahA]

And it gets worse... In April 2021, I said this in relation to Tether:

So I think most logical people are justified in missing out.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/how-to-value-bitcoin.357951/page-7#post-5369961

Sigh... I was the dumb one.

Good thing is that I was finally nice to John!

I do love your posts John. No matter how much people disagree with you, you always come back with facts and references. You're a wonderful ET poster to converse with.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...y-trading-journal.354996/page-26#post-5368279

 

[schizo]

Flipped back to long at just north of 43.1K.

As for the current rally, I'm fully expecting it to go up to 47,600.

 

[johnarb]

Jesus christ... what a humbling experience. Please accept my apologies John.

There is no need, my friend. I was not that nice, either, and I am also sorry!

 

[schizo]

It's been a good rally the last 4 days, but I don't think it's sustainable. So I expect to see a pullback from here, possibly down to 45K, before reversing back up again.

 

[NoahA]

So I expect to see a pullback from here, possibly down to 45K, before reversing back up again.

I need it bad... don't have my full position on and I don't want to keep chasing.

 

[schizo]

I need it bad... don't have my full position on and I don't want to keep chasing.

LOL unfortunately, as soon as I posted that, the damn thing shot up by almost 1000 points! I'm still gonna wait until it comes down though.

 

[long]

LOL unfortunately, as soon as I posted that, the damn thing shot up by almost 1000 points! I'm still gonna wait until it comes down though.

This is the strongest weekend action in a while. I’m sorta getting the feeling that spot BTC is gonna spike hard during the Super Bowl today.