Is the crypto winter over?

[johnarb]

You personally own more crypto than this fund!
https://www.fidelity.ca/en/products/funds/ace/
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And its 1.68% expense ratio is hardly competitive with anything.

I think you're missing the point of the excitement, this is like a test case (ninja) move

Now that the bitcoin spot ETF's are available, any investment fund can easily allocate now

This is an existing fund, called All-in-One Conservative fund (they also put higher allocation on 2 other funds) and they just added the allocation to bitcoin spot ETF

Imagine if you're someone that bought this fund a year ago, never knowing about bitcoin or wtf it is, now, you'll have an allocation to bitcoin and you have no vote, if you don't want it, you'll have to sell the A-I-O Conservative fund

Once we hear from the other institutions, i.e. Blackrock, that's when things will get very interesting, but this one happened when the bitcoin spot ETF is less than 1 month old

 

[NoahA]

Yeah, but I'm still gonna short this MOFO whenever I feel it's gonna reverse on me. As for the current rally, I'm fully expecting it to go up to 47,600.

View attachment 333506

I will never short, but I keep buying the 2x ETF BITX and plan to take profits, and then scale in again, hopefully lower, over and over again. What scares me is if I sell, and price doesn't drop but just keeps climbing. Then I will be stuck chasing.

 

[schizo]

I will never short, but I keep buying the 2x ETF BITX and plan to take profits, and then scale in again, hopefully lower, over and over again. What scares me is if I sell, and price doesn't drop but just keeps climbing. Then I will be stuck chasing.

Don't feel bad, you're not the only one.

Here's a simple approach that can mitigate your problem. Scale in as the market goes up and scale out for the opposite. This way, you're always in the market but your exposure would be increased on the way up and reduced on the way down.

Note: Just to be clear, this is NOT averaging down as prices are falling.

 

[NoahA]

Don't feel bad, you're not the only one.

Here's a simple approach that can mitigate your problem. Scale in as the market goes up and scale out for the opposite. This way, you're always in the market but your exposure would be increased on the way up and reduced on the way down.

Note: Just to be clear, this is NOT averaging down as prices are falling.

I'm actually not scared to average in as it goes lower because I'm mostly certain the lows are in so those lower prices are a god send. I have to think through the pros and cons of your approach.

The other thing I wonder about is how to use the 2x ETF, which is futures based, and hence does suffer some decay, and when to use just one of these new ETFs. I have a position in the top 3 (BITC IBIT FBTC), and also a good chuck of the 2x BITX. I wonder if there would also be a good way to play the 1x vs. 2x ones. There is just too much fear of that gap up over a weekend or something like this. So maybe after a bit run up, sell the 2x and buy the 1x, and when I think we hit a low, take on more leverage by selling the 1x and going into the 2x.

Now I do also have significant exposure via holding actual bitcoin in cold storage which I assume I will hold for years, but I'm also playing the ETFs with the hope to increase bitcoin exposure faster vs. just buying and holding. Of course if I play it wrong and miss having a full position on during that "god candle", then this will suck.

 

[semperfrosty]

Sell everything and go all in on Bitcoin. Haven’t done it yet.

May well be the best thing you do and in the current BTC climate I cant advise directly against it,but any Bitcoiner will tell you that the downturns hurt.Even when youre nicely in the black,going backwards from where you were has a significant emotional drawdown.

I would suggest getting straight in with something worthwhile so that you are exposed to the upside and set a base for your average buy in,then I would DCA over the next 6 months.

Ive kept it pretty standard,I remove some of the volatility by buying daily at a set rate.The only deviation being that I add some lump sums after a significant downturn say 3,4 or 5 % and then DCA again from there.

To up the ante,there is a strategy I like where you DCA at a standard rate whilst price moving up or within 1%.Where price hits below the 1% you 1.2,1.5 or 2x your DCA.You can calibrate your aggression and you are investing more at the lower prices.

Be interested to see what you decide.Youve taken the time to research and interact so its probably now time to trust your instincts.

Good luck mate.

 

[johnarb]

May well be the best thing you do and in the current BTC climate I cant advise directly against it,but any Bitcoiner will tell you that the downturns hurt.Even when youre nicely in the black,going backwards from where you were has a significant emotional drawdown.

I would suggest getting straight in with something worthwhile so that you are exposed to the upside and set a base for your average buy in,then I would DCA over the next 6 months.

Ive kept it pretty standard,I remove some of the volatility by buying daily at a set rate.The only deviation being that I add some lump sums after a significant downturn say 3,4 or 5 % and then DCA again from there.

To up the ante,there is a strategy I like where you DCA at a standard rate whilst price moving up or within 1%.Where price hits below the 1% you 1.2,1.5 or 2x your DCA.You can calibrate your aggression and you are investing more at the lower prices.

Be interested to see what you decide.Youve taken the time to research and interact so its probably now time to trust your instincts.

Good luck mate.

I don't want to speak for long ,but I believe he was being facetious

No one will go all in with their (family's) net worth (life savings) without having spent at least 1,000 hours studying and researching Bitcoin

And most people, even the high net worth are not liquid, think of someone worth $100M will probably have the bulk of it in real estate and equities (index funds?), sure they can liquidate but imagine the tax implications, not to mention escrow, and T+2 plus the liabilities side of the assets, margin for equities and mortgages for real estate or other real properties

That's why on a recent interview with Elon, he mentioned that Tesla sold their bitcoin holdings for liquidity needs, because bitcoin worked perfectly as a corporate treasury cash equivalent, highly liquid, 24/7/365

SpaceX did not sell their bitcoins because it did not need liquidity

So when haters on ET asking me why I'm a cult brain-washed Bitcoiner all-in, they do not understand that bitcoin the asset is not as risky as they think since they have not studied it

Bitcoin is volatile, yes, which is why you need to pull up the Sharpe ratio for the past year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years, then you can tell us the risk and volatility of Bitcoin the asset

 

[Ed48]

I'm actually not scared to average in as it goes lower because I'm mostly certain the lows are in so those lower prices are a god send. I have to think through the pros and cons of your approach.

The other thing I wonder about is how to use the 2x ETF, which is futures based, and hence does suffer some decay, and when to use just one of these new ETFs. I have a position in the top 3 (BITC IBIT FBTC), and also a good chuck of the 2x BITX. I wonder if there would also be a good way to play the 1x vs. 2x ones. There is just too much fear of that gap up over a weekend or something like this. So maybe after a bit run up, sell the 2x and buy the 1x, and when I think we hit a low, take on more leverage by selling the 1x and going into the 2x.

Now I do also have significant exposure via holding actual bitcoin in cold storage which I assume I will hold for years, but I'm also playing the ETFs with the hope to increase bitcoin exposure faster vs. just buying and holding. Of course if I play it wrong and miss having a full position on during that "god candle", then this will suck.

It's much, much harder than people think to beat buy & hold.

There's no point trading in and out, unless you can significantly outperform buy & hold. It just ain't worth the stress.

Anyway, good luck with whatever you decide.

 

[semperfrosty]

I don't want to speak for long ,but I believe he was being facetious

No one will go all in with their (family's) net worth (life savings) without having spent at least 1,000 hours studying and researching Bitcoin

And most people, even the high net worth are not liquid, think of someone worth $100M will probably have the bulk of it in real estate and equities (index funds?), sure they can liquidate but imagine the tax implications, not to mention escrow, and T+2 plus the liabilities side of the assets, margin for equities and mortgages for real estate or other real properties

That's why on a recent interview with Elon, he mentioned that Tesla sold their bitcoin holdings for liquidity needs, because bitcoin worked perfectly as a corporate treasury cash equivalent, highly liquid, 24/7/365

SpaceX did not sell their bitcoins because it did not need liquidity

So when haters on ET asking me why I'm a cult brain-washed Bitcoiner all-in, they do not understand that bitcoin the asset is not as risky as they think since they have not studied it

Bitcoin is volatile, yes, which is why you need to pull up the Sharpe ratio for the past year, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years, then you can tell us the risk and volatility of Bitcoin the asset

Aaah I see.My facetiousness radar must be off.

Either way,I think its reasonable advice for someone with the FOMO and eager to get in.

Do it so you enjoy the ride.Lots to love about Bitcoin,the tech,the possibilities and the community.Try not to make it about each and every fluctuation of the price because your balls are on the line.

 

[schizo]

I'm actually not scared to average in as it goes lower because I'm mostly certain the lows are in so those lower prices are a god send. I have to think through the pros and cons of your approach.

The other thing I wonder about is how to use the 2x ETF, which is futures based, and hence does suffer some decay, and when to use just one of these new ETFs. I have a position in the top 3 (BITC IBIT FBTC), and also a good chuck of the 2x BITX. I wonder if there would also be a good way to play the 1x vs. 2x ones. There is just too much fear of that gap up over a weekend or something like this. So maybe after a bit run up, sell the 2x and buy the 1x, and when I think we hit a low, take on more leverage by selling the 1x and going into the 2x.

Now I do also have significant exposure via holding actual bitcoin in cold storage which I assume I will hold for years, but I'm also playing the ETFs with the hope to increase bitcoin exposure faster vs. just buying and holding. Of course if I play it wrong and miss having a full position on during that "god candle", then this will suck.

I still don't think it's a good idea to average down. It's just a bad habit that will ultimately bite you in the ass somewhere down the road. Most traders that blow up are usually those who take on big risk, and martingal happens to be the biggest culprit.

Anyway, if you're already holding spot bitcoin, why bother adding more needless risk with the ETFs? I would simply use ETF as a hedge instead.

 

[schizo]

Another stellar perfomance. Haven't seen 2 days of back-to-back thrust in a while, right? Hope to see 47k tomorrow.