Is the crypto winter over?

[NoahA]

I read a book about a decade ago that was advocating that you take mini retirements every so often. The authors argument had two points. 1 - go do the exciting things while you’re in good shape and can enjoy them (ex: climb Kilimanjaro). 2 - you’ll never be able to retire like your parents and grandparents did. You’ll work till you die so make sure you do things when you can.

This is all one big game of musical chairs. We all clearly see there aren't enough chairs, but the music hasn't stopped yet. I agree with you, but if you know today that you will never retire, then why on earth even work towards something. And if you don't work towards something, then your economy and country collapses. Every time us guys approach a girl, we have to assume there is a small chance that she will fuck. If for whatever reason we know that any time and effort we spend on her will not be reciprocated, then might as well not even approach. So if the message truly is to do something today because you will work until you die, then I see no point in even trying. (But I think you're totally right!)

And I totally understand about the farmland. After bitcoin, farmland is the next best thing to own!

 

[The_Krakenite]

Believe me, deaddog has been corrected on his flawed thinking before. Can't beat an old dog new tricks.

I can imagine him telling a German after WWI that paying 99.999% of your wages to England and France for 10-generations is not such a bad thing. Other people have lived in serfdom before, and the world still went on... See?

 

[schizo]

Flipping short at 41,000

Flipped back to long 39600

 

[deaddog]

I honestly hate this argument. People today work 2 jobs, not to pay off their house that was 2 times their yearly income, but to pay for rent on a property that they don't own and to put food on the table.

The old generation was expected to leave the house at 18 because they could. Today, even a 30 year old probably cannot afford to live on their own. Being young today and starting out is nothing like it was 30 years ago.

You got caught up in consumerism. Someone managed to convince you that you need all the the modern convieniences.
You're aware of how we walked to school barefoot in a snowstorm uphill both ways. That was the way it was so someone in marketing convinced us that our kids should have it easier. Everything comes with a cost. When I look back at where we were, for an hours labor I could buy a pack of smokes, 2 hrs for a case of beer and 6 or 7 hrs for a tank of gas. About the same as today, It's just that we now have to have more stuff.

 

[NoahA]

You got caught up in consumerism. Someone managed to convince you that you need all the the modern convieniences.
You're aware of how we walked to school barefoot in a snowstorm uphill both ways. That was the way it was so we someone in marketing convinced us that our lids should have it easier. Everything comes with a cost. When I look back at where we were, for an hours labor I could buy a pack of smokes, 2 hrs for a case of beer and 6 or 7 hrs for a tank of gas. About the same as today, It's just that we now have to have more stuff.

Jesus, you're as delusional about this as you are with bitcoin.

My dad bought his townhouse in 1999 for $172k on an hourly wage of maybe around $27. Rates were around 6% and kept dropping in his favor after this. Today, my wage is $29 and townhouses in my city are around $900k. You do the math and tell me how to make it work. I don't even drink alcohol or smoke.

 

[deaddog]

Jesus, you're as delusional about this as you are with bitcoin.

My dad bought his townhouse in 1999 for $172k on an hourly wage of maybe around $27. Rates were around 6% and kept dropping in his favor after this. Today, my wage is $29 and townhouses in my city are around $900k. You do the math and tell me how to make it work. I don't even drink alcohol or smoke.

Theres my point. You think you need a town house. What about a rundown apartment or condo. Maybe a mobile home.
Your Dad made 27 bucks and hour 25 years ago. How come you're only making 29. Hell 25 years ago I was making a minumum of 500 bucks a day and usually more.
Ya gotta do what ever it takes. Go get a second job.

 

[johnarb]

You’ve definitely got ballz. I couldn’t go all in on anything other than real estate

You think I got ballz going all-in on bitcoin and I think the opposite and you're the biggest risk-taker going all-in on real estate (especially farm land)

You ever read the Black Swan (Taleb)?

I started seeing a world full of alternate realities, full of survivorship biases

You think you own your farmland? you feel safe?

1. You have a loan against it 50% LTV

• You got some income from farming, then 1 day, the govt says shutdown everything, some disease going around called vid-co-9102 none of your workers are allowed to work, banks start calling in loans, none of the banks want to approve new loans

2. You own the farmland 100% clear

• You think you own it? Nah, you're renting it every year from the govt with property tax, they make you think you own it, one year say you don't want to pay, they take your land
• One day they discover gold/uranium,oil, and the govt wants to do eminent domain take your property, they do value assessment, give you comps from a many years ago, not enough sales
• Some problem with historical title, sitting blue ballz native indian land
• DEA find some cocoa growing on your land, they say you were farming cocaine for the loasin cartel, they freeze all your financial accounts ,banks, stocks, retirement and take your land, civil forfeiture
• A corrupt politician working with wealthy developers want your land, they setup some Fed sting, put some kiddie pr0n on your devices, you're locked up in prison, your farm go on auction for pennies on the $

But yea, you think going all-in on bitcoin, a liquid asset 24/7/365 global trading markets, not anchored in any country, you keep your mouth shut, you can live anywhere in the world,

Oh but one day it's possible Bitcoin can get hacked.... sure, it's possible. Lindy effect

The very best hackers been working on it for over 10 years, some wallets worth millions, 10's of millions, 100's of millions, even billions of $ if only someone could hack the bitcoin wallet address

 

[long]

S

You think I got ballz going all-in on bitcoin and I think the opposite and you're the biggest risk-taker going all-in on real estate (especially farm land)

You ever read the Black Swan (Taleb)?

I started seeing a world full of alternate realities, full of survivorship biases

You think you own your farmland? you feel safe?

1. You have a loan against it 50% LTV

• You got some income from farming, then 1 day, the govt says shutdown everything, some disease going around called vid-co-9102 none of your workers are allowed to work, banks start calling in loans, none of the banks want to approve new loans

2. You own the farmland 100% clear

• You think you own it? Nah, you're renting it every year from the govt with property tax, they make you think you own it, one year say you don't want to pay, they take your land
• One day they discover gold/uranium,oil, and the govt wants to do eminent domain take your property, they do value assessment, give you comps from a many years ago, not enough sales
• Some problem with historical title, sitting blue ballz native indian land
• DEA find some cocoa growing on your land, they say you were farming cocaine for the loasin cartel, they freeze all your financial accounts ,banks, stocks, retirement and take your land, civil forfeiture
• A corrupt politician working with wealthy developers want your land, they setup some Fed sting, put some kiddie pr0n on your devices, you're locked up in prison, your farm go on auction for pennies on the $

But yea, you think going all-in on bitcoin, a liquid asset 24/7/365 global trading markets, not anchored in any country, you keep your mouth shut, you can live anywhere in the world,

Oh but one day it's possible Bitcoin can get hacked.... sure, it's possible. Lindy effect

The very best hackers been working on it for over 10 years, some wallets worth millions, 10's of millions, 100's of millions, even billions of $ if only someone could hack the bitcoin wallet address

All your points are valid except the property tax part. The federal government doesn’t tax property, only income. The land I currently own is only taxed by the county to fund roads and schools. Property inside city limits is taxed by the city for the same purposes at a much higher rate (usually 5x to 10x the country rate). I’ve heard of places in the US that don’t have property taxes but I can’t give an example. It’s great that bitcoin will allow you to live anywhere during Armageddon but I plan to stay where I’m at.

 

[johnarb]

S

All your points are valid except the property tax part. The federal government doesn’t tax property, only income. The land I currently own is only taxed by the county to fund roads and schools. Property inside city limits is taxed by the city for the same purposes at a much higher rate (usually 5x to 10x the country rate). I’ve heard of places in the US that don’t have property taxes but I can’t give an example. It’s great that bitcoin will allow you to live anywhere during Armageddon but I plan to stay where I’m at.

I made up all those scenarios in a short time and I'm not a real-estate expert, so there's probably a lot more smaller risks that I can't even imagine and some do not have to be severe, maybe some border crossing migrants start posing risks on you and your family, maybe you hire security, there's time and monetary costs, who knows maybe firing a gun was involved, and someone is injured, but no one died, think of all the legal costs, court dates, stress on you and your family

Real-estate is illiquid asset. Most people think of all the great returns, the flippers, the long term investors, the casual homeowners, but the reason for the great returns can be attributed to leverage (mortgage, 20% dp, 5 to 1), force hodl for most participants (imagine if RE traded every business day, bid and ask, people will panic and sell when they are down, causing mini crashes)

Armaggedon be damned, you can go all-in on bitcoin and live in the middle of San Francisco or in the suburbs of Iowa, the point is that being able to visualize all the risks, I made up some non-zero probabilities on RE farmland and I've been doing the same thing on bitcoin for the past 10 years

I get sick. I get injured and brain turns to mush, I die, Flood, fire, theft, hackers...

I get it, you're not going anywhere and you're willing to take those very low-probability risks, but remember you're also taking them for your family and loved ones

We all take risks with our choice(s). The biggest risk most people see in bitcoin is price volatility, they see the multiple 80% drawdowns, and say it's very risky, you can't go all-in on that, but ask them what's the Sharpe ratio of bitcoin for the past 10 years and they will say it's not valid or cannot be used on bitcoin

Amazon has had severe drawdowns in the past 25 years

I'm extremely risk-averse when it comes to the security of my family and loved ones and I want to be able to visualize all my risk exposures

No, I don't got ballz... I'm terrified of all kinds of risks and I'm constantly looking ahead, paranoid, scared... mostly not for me... we all die eventually, but there are people we leave behind and.......

 

[long]

I made up all those scenarios in a short time and I'm not a real-estate expert, so there's probably a lot more smaller risks that I can't even imagine and some do not have to be severe, maybe some border crossing migrants start posing risks on you and your family, maybe you hire security, there's time and monetary costs, who knows maybe firing a gun was involved, and someone is injured, but no one died, think of all the legal costs, court dates, stress on you and your family

Real-estate is illiquid asset. Most people think of all the great returns, the flippers, the long term investors, the casual homeowners, but the reason for the great returns can be attributed to leverage (mortgage, 20% dp, 5 to 1), force hodl for most participants (imagine if RE traded every business day, bid and ask, people will panic and sell when they are down, causing mini crashes)

Armaggedon be damned, you can go all-in on bitcoin and live in the middle of San Francisco or in the suburbs of Iowa, the point is that being able to visualize all the risks, I made up some non-zero probabilities on RE farmland and I've been doing the same thing on bitcoin for the past 10 years

I get sick. I get injured and brain turns to mush, I die, Flood, fire, theft, hackers...

I get it, you're not going anywhere and you're willing to take those very low-probability risks, but remember you're also taking them for your family and loved ones

We all take risks with our choice(s). The biggest risk most people see in bitcoin is price volatility, they see the multiple 80% drawdowns, and say it's very risky, you can't go all-in on that, but ask them what's the Sharpe ratio of bitcoin for the past 10 years and they will say it's not valid or cannot be used on bitcoin

Amazon has had severe drawdowns in the past 25 years

I'm extremely risk-averse when it comes to the security of my family and loved ones and I want to be able to visualize all my risk exposures

No, I don't got ballz... I'm terrified of all kinds of risks and I'm constantly looking ahead, paranoid, scared... mostly not for me... we all die eventually, but there are people we leave behind and.......

Okay I’ll do it