Is the crypto winter over?

[NoahA]

You can't possibly be serious.

Try not to go over the top with your shilling.

Me too. I literally have 80% of all my meagre wealth in various forms of bitcoin. I finally even sold over 90% of my silver over the past few months, and am up nicely on that decision since I was buying BTC and selling silver when BTC was in the 30's. The silver did nothing for me in 10 years, and had I bought bitcoin at the time, I wouldn't have to be here arguing with you guys... LOL...

FF, here is what you need to understand. We believe that one day, the biggest shock you will ever see will hit in an instant and if you aren't already converted into bitcoin, you will get rug pulled. Think of events like US coming off gold standard, or when I think it was the Swiss currency that depegged and had an instant correction of 30%. There is literally no way for fiat currencies to survive, and although the US dollar is said to be the last to fall, with debts of 34T and huge interest expenses, there is hardly anything more left to squeeze. Consider you are Chinese and all your wealth is in a shitty empty condo... you don't have any wealth. Or consider that you are in HK and all of a sudden HK falls and now your condo is worthless and your only concern is to get out of the country before it is locked down.

Its only a matter of time now until the government does something drastic to really tip the scales. Then what you will see in the price action isn't going to be something useless like AMC or GMC that explodes because or short covering and kids playing games, but it will be organic demand for a scarce asset that cannot be printed, confiscated, that is 100% verifiable, etc. You don't have to like bitcoin, but I bet you like every single property that is has.

Now consider that your opinion is shared by 95% of your peers. There might be 10% users of bitcoin, but there are probably only 1 or 2% of people like john and I who have most of our wealth in bitcoin already. (mine is a small fraction of his... LOL) So this means that 99% of the world will need to move into what 1% of the world has.

 

[long]

Fuck, take your meds, Mr. Foreskin! You know that I'm 100% serious, I even seem to recall you saying something like you can't wait for bitcoin to crash and I get ruined... when the price was below $20k/btc

I don't hold it against you, but you are going to wait forever

Read carefully..... Bitcoin will go to $1M and higher and there is nothing you can do about it since it's just based on simple logic

Have fun staying poor, asshole. No offense

You say you don’t have fiat unless you have to for some reason, what about stock or other securities?

 

[The_Krakenite]

Last night I had a feeling there was going to be a bigger dip today with more Grayscale selling, and traders trying to pull out and time the bottom. Sure enough, I see today that I got fills on some of my bottom-feeding Futures-Options for CME's Bitcoin contracts.

This is the first time I've done this with Bitcoin as the underlay through CME. Maybe next year I'll experiment with ForEx or WTI futures

Sure, I missed the bottom, but as Soros says, catching the bottom is almost impossible and a fool's errand. Just try to get 25% within the bottom and the top and you'll be rich.

 

[Frederick Foresight]

We believe that one day, the biggest shock you will ever see will hit in an instant and if you aren't already converted into bitcoin, you will get rug pulled.

See, that’s the thing. I feel the same way, except the other way around. Really.

 

[NoahA]

See, that’s the thing. I feel the same way, except the other way around. Really.

Sure, there is a possibility that some cataclysmic event implodes bitcoin, but its a 100% certainty that USD will continue to weaken and cause even more pain and suffering. The fear shouldn't be that you're right about bitcoin, it should be that you are wrong about bitcoin. If everyone in the US put just 1% into bitcoin, imagine where price would be. And as I said above, most people like all the properties of bitcoin, or at the very least a majority of the properties, and yet somehow they conclude that there is something wrong with it.

Are any of these thing bad on their own?

Fixed Supply?
Known release schedule?
Portable and highly divisible?
Permissionless?
Censorship resistant?
Finality of transactions? (ok, I know, some people want to be able to undo transactions in case of theft, etc)
Outside of government control which means a separation of money from state?

If people truly unstandstand the history of fiat and what it corrupt system means to them in their every day lives, they would immediately choose to use something else. Maybe bitcoin isn't perfect, but its certainly better than fiat.

 

[long]

Sure, there is a possibility that some cataclysmic event implodes bitcoin, but its a 100% certainty that USD will continue to weaken and cause even more pain and suffering. The fear shouldn't be that you're right about bitcoin, it should be that you are wrong about bitcoin. If everyone in the US put just 1% into bitcoin, imagine where price would be. And as I said above, most people like all the properties of bitcoin, or at the very least a majority of the properties, and yet somehow they conclude that there is something wrong with it.

Are any of these thing bad on their own?

Fixed Supply?
Known release schedule?
Portable and highly divisible?
Permissionless?
Censorship resistant?
Finality of transactions? (ok, I know, some people want to be able to undo transactions in case of theft, etc)
Outside of government control which means a separation of money from state?

If people truly unstandstand the history of fiat and what it corrupt system means to them in their every day lives, they would immediately choose to use something else. Maybe bitcoin isn't perfect, but its certainly better than fiat.

Fiat is absolutely corrupt. Bitcoin blockchain is a fantastic technology for an accounting system that can’t be diluted. But…..that doesn’t mean that bitcoin will be the final adopted system. The powers that be will come up with an alternative and force it on us. My bet is that the big boys are executing the biggest pump and dump in the history of the world. I’ve bought my 1% to hold and I plan on using another 4-5% to jump in and out.

 

[deaddog]

I’ve bought my 1% to hold and I plan on using another 4-5% to jump in and out.

Are you in or out right now?

 

[long]

Are you in or out right now?

1% of my portfolio is spot BTC and I’m holding it. I’m allocating the 4-5% to swing trade futures but I’m not up to speed enough to start. I’m looking for data that isn’t price/OI/volume to help me find an edge. I really don’t know how soon I’ll start a futures trading strategy. Meanwhile I’m praying for another stimulus check so that Americans can buy more Bitcoin…..

 

[NoahA]

Fiat is absolutely corrupt. Bitcoin blockchain is a fantastic technology for an accounting system that can’t be diluted. But…..that doesn’t mean that bitcoin will be the final adopted system. The powers that be will come up with an alternative and force it on us. My bet is that the big boys are executing the biggest pump and dump in the history of the world. I’ve bought my 1% to hold and I plan on using another 4-5% to jump in and out.

I do think that there is a slight chance that something will replace bitcoin, but only if it proves to be vastly better in some way. There is too much game theory with bitcoin and its just much too late to catch up given the immense amount of computing power going into bitcoin. If I ever saw hashrate dropping and some other project ramping up big time, I would take note, but today, there is simply no better option.

The big boys are who exactly? GBTC and the ETFs are all just shares of regular people. Blackrock can't dump if individual sellers don't sell. MSTR can sell, but all this does it lower the price and allow others to stack. The more distributed that bitcoins become, the more that everyday people want to use it. So I just don't see how bigboys can dump the price in any way. Maybe some narrative get released that scares people into dumping, sure, but if every time this happens, a huge recovery follows, then eventually every dump is bought up faster and faster.

The only dump I worry about is a financial collapse that forces people to sell anything they have in order to provide liquidity. But I think in the long run, all this does is force more people into bitcoin.

 

[long]

I do think that there is a slight chance that something will replace bitcoin, but only if it proves to be vastly better in some way. There is too much game theory with bitcoin and its just much too late to catch up given the immense amount of computing power going into bitcoin. If I ever saw hashrate dropping and some other project ramping up big time, I would take note, but today, there is simply no better option.

The big boys are who exactly? GBTC and the ETFs are all just shares of regular people. Blackrock can't dump if individual sellers don't sell. MSTR can sell, but all this does it lower the price and allow others to stack. The more distributed that bitcoins become, the more that everyday people want to use it. So I just don't see how bigboys can dump the price in any way. Maybe some narrative get released that scares people into dumping, sure, but if every time this happens, a huge recovery follows, then eventually every dump is bought up faster and faster.

The only dump I worry about is a financial collapse that forces people to sell anything they have in order to provide liquidity. But I think in the long run, all this does is force more people into bitcoin.

But I’m a cynic and constantly think how things can go wrong. I have no crystal ball but I know that world leaders and financial behemoths will find a way to come out on top. In my scenario bitcoin won’t be beaten by a better alternative, we will be forced to adopt an alternative designed to maintain the current power structure. I’ll be checking in with Alex Jones after the next Bilderberg meeting to get a better idea of what’s coming.