Something doesn't look right here. Big push down (1), followed by 2 long tails (2) (3) in the same session, spells weakness and doesn't bode well IMO. Also you normally wouldn't see fat fingers unloading ahead of big announcement if they thought it was bullish, which is the prevailing view (ain't it?). What's up on the ETF front? Are they making any headway? This damn chart is telling me they're not.
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To be honest, I also view this as bullish. There is that first push down, and subsequent tries couldn't even break the first low. Now the longer it takes, the more it worries me, but its just how I view it.
On a slightly different tangent, I watched a great video yesterday with a guess named Matt Odell. I know you don't know him, but he is kind of big in the privacy and bitcoin space. He points out that wallstreet isn't ready for the type of instrument that bitcoin is. He mentions the GME fiasco and how wallstreet was short, and they were able to control the market in terms of Robinhood for example preventing people from buying more shares. As GME went to the moon, eventually the big boys were able to control the damage through their shady practises. But bitcoin will be different. Since the ETF will have to follow spot price, and since you can't print more bitcoins, how the dust settles will be epic. I even remember back to the LME fiasco where that exchange rolled back trades in order to make the Chinese owners happy.
So although you might be seeing typical games in the bitcoin price right now, this instrument is nothing like wallstreet has ever seen before, and you might have to throw out the old rule book of price action that is based on big players moving price around. Think about it. What happens when the ETF gets so much inflow that they have to acquire 10k bitcoins but can't fill the order??
Odell also rightly pointed out how 1 month ago, Jamie Dimon talked down bitcoin, while likely filling up his bags knowing that he is going to play a role in this ETF. So although I'm cautious, I think the potential for unprecedented moves is solid.
