By midweek over 30,000 is my call, falling to 28,600 is a dummy move to shake out weak hands, why shouldn't it do that is the better question.
Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
None of this is financial advise, but here's my take
Bitcoin has been on a boring range. This is counter to the popular belief that btc is highly volatile
I'm referring to the btc spot % move, which is why most people who want to trade btc, trade it with leverage and get liquidated during sudden moves. Hodlers are not affected
Another way to trade btc is the altcoins, but the ones that are highly correlated to btc (more on this below). The highest correlation are with L1 blockchain tokens, such as Eth, Sol, Ftm, Bnb and others. Those altcoins have higher beta for trading
And there are altcoins that are not very correlated and in some ways are negatively correlated to btc. For example, AI blockchain coins had massive moves a couple of months ago
And now the elephant in the room are the meme crypto tokens. For the past month, some of the meme coins have made some huge moves. Pepe is up over 1000% in the past 2 weeks, this is spot, no leverage
Here's the thing, the newly launched meme coins as a class of crypto assets are taking away liquidity and adding sell pressure to btc, eth and other big caps and even other altcoins, nft's and even the older meme coins like doge, shib, etc
The hedgies and institutional traders are not selling their btc to fomo into Pepe, but there are moves from stablecoins and other altcoins and nft's being sold/swapped for Pepe
If you type on google, "how to buy", you'll see that Pepe is also trending on the mainstream. This is good more people are entering the cryptos space even if it's through a meme crypto. Let's call it the gateway drug
Pepe and other meme coins are very volatile. And we don't know how long this meme coins szn will last, iow, this is very risky trading
My Pepe leftover bag after selling a little bit yesterday is worth about $70k, but yesterday it was worth over $110k. I posted 2 weeks ago that Pepe was down 50% in a day and it has had other big moves to the downside in the past 2 weeks
The 1000%+ roi does not come easy. I can close Pepe bag right now, but I believe that it has another 500%+ move from here so I hodl
I have a Mong yield farm that I put $15k risk capital 21 hours ago, saw the value go to $25k (plus $1800 rewards) yesterday, saw it go down to $19k value (plus $2100 rewards) this morning and now currently at $23k value (plus $2500 rewards), for the people in the know, the % moves are x2 because it's liquidity pool mong-eth pair. All those moves within 21 hours with no leverage
I only glance at btc price at a fraction of the time I glance at Pepe, Mong and other meme coins prices
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tl;dr while btc trading markets has been on a boring range, there is a gift of crypto meme trading markets with moves that are a trader's dream... or nightmare
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Bitcoin has been on a boring range. This is counter to the popular belief that btc is highly volatile
I'm referring to the btc spot % move, which is why most people who want to trade btc, trade it with leverage and get liquidated during sudden moves. Hodlers are not affected
Another way to trade btc is the altcoins, but the ones that are highly correlated to btc (more on this below). The highest correlation are with L1 blockchain tokens, such as Eth, Sol, Ftm, Bnb and others. Those altcoins have higher beta for trading
And there are altcoins that are not very correlated and in some ways are negatively correlated to btc. For example, AI blockchain coins had massive moves a couple of months ago
And now the elephant in the room are the meme crypto tokens. For the past month, some of the meme coins have made some huge moves. Pepe is up over 1000% in the past 2 weeks, this is spot, no leverage
Here's the thing, the newly launched meme coins as a class of crypto assets are taking away liquidity and adding sell pressure to btc, eth and other big caps and even other altcoins, nft's and even the older meme coins like doge, shib, etc
The hedgies and institutional traders are not selling their btc to fomo into Pepe, but there are moves from stablecoins and other altcoins and nft's being sold/swapped for Pepe
If you type on google, "how to buy", you'll see that Pepe is also trending on the mainstream. This is good more people are entering the cryptos space even if it's through a meme crypto. Let's call it the gateway drug
Pepe and other meme coins are very volatile. And we don't know how long this meme coins szn will last, iow, this is very risky trading
My Pepe leftover bag after selling a little bit yesterday is worth about $70k, but yesterday it was worth over $110k. I posted 2 weeks ago that Pepe was down 50% in a day and it has had other big moves to the downside in the past 2 weeks
The 1000%+ roi does not come easy. I can close Pepe bag right now, but I believe that it has another 500%+ move from here so I hodl
I have a Mong yield farm that I put $15k risk capital 21 hours ago, saw the value go to $25k (plus $1800 rewards) yesterday, saw it go down to $19k value (plus $2100 rewards) this morning and now currently at $23k value (plus $2500 rewards), for the people in the know, the % moves are x2 because it's liquidity pool mong-eth pair. All those moves within 21 hours with no leverage
I only glance at btc price at a fraction of the time I glance at Pepe, Mong and other meme coins prices
-------------
tl;dr while btc trading markets has been on a boring range, there is a gift of crypto meme trading markets with moves that are a trader's dream... or nightmare
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Dude, wtf?? It's been shaking out the weaklings for the last 2 weeks. Just how many shakeouts does this damn thing need before going higher?
I decided to take a quick look into my SYEP from the last few months. Looks like I was getting close to $200 a month in loaning out crypto ETFs in January. It dropped down to $120 for Feb... and since then almost no loans whatsoever for spot-crypto ETFs. The little bit I've been getting for April was about $15 for the month, and only really due to loaning out shares of BitcoinWell, which is a small-cap that owns & operates Bitcoin ATMs throughout the province of Ontario.
So... either people found a better way to short blue-chip cryptos than borrowing my ETFs of BTC/ETH, or they've all backed down from shorting and don't want to get squeezed... or... they've found other cryptos (memes & shitcoins) that are easier targets and they are pretty sure are going to implode soon
You guys have any ideas what those other candidates may be?
Feb Interest Loan Payments:
So... either people found a better way to short blue-chip cryptos than borrowing my ETFs of BTC/ETH, or they've all backed down from shorting and don't want to get squeezed... or... they've found other cryptos (memes & shitcoins) that are easier targets and they are pretty sure are going to implode soon
You guys have any ideas what those other candidates may be?
Feb Interest Loan Payments:
Dude, wtf?? It's been shaking out the weaklings for the last 2 weeks. Just how many shakeouts does this damn thing need before going higher?
Since March 13th, volatility has been quite subdued, nothing out of the normal whatsoever.
Lets be reasonable here, Bitcoin (blackline) is up 31%, Spy (red) is up 3% and Spy showing higher volatility.
Dude, wtf?? It's been shaking out the weaklings for the last 2 weeks. Just how many shakeouts does this damn thing need before going higher?
This really goes to the core of the thread title, is the crypto winter over?
If you think that it is, then there should be no shakeouts that would affect you as long as you're not trading with leverage you cannot afford
Just buy the dips and take profits whenever you wish
If you think the crypto winter is not over, then you will get shaken out on pullbacks because you're scared that bitcoin will go back to new lows or stay down and you'll be stuck
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Crypto winter is over for sure. But that doesn't mean we go from winter straight to sunny summer. There will be rains and even some light snow along the way. I have my finger on the pulse on this damn thing and I think I have a pretty good handle on it.
This reminds me of the great bull-trap during the middle of the Great Financial Crisis. Remember that very large bull-blip when everyone started to think the worst was finally over? Even Buffett got trapped and impaled on it...
It wasn't everyone. I traded every day in 2008 up to the bottom in March 2009 and never felt the worst was over or that fundamentals were improving.
Here, the prospects for BTC are improving for any number of reasons, including de-dollarization gaining steam, continued weakness in the regional banks, persistent inflation, no coordinated effort to get the national debt/deficit under control, etc.
Just bought crypt.ax on open today on expectation of breakout later in week. Not the first time, been in and out several times.