Is the crypto winter over?

[johnarb]

Stopped out at 28.3K. Will see how it goes before I jump back in. Frankly, I ain't too sure about this one. Something tells me this can correct more to the downside. Fingers crossed for now.

Yea, btc and cryptos have been weak. Funnymentals on CT are talking about the 1mo UST surging in price (yield crashing), something about derisking and rebalancing funds in preparation for the Treasury running out of funds earlier than expected due to weaker tax receipts from last year when all investments crashed

It's a mouthful but tl;dr liquidity being sucked out of the markets (risk assets) a deleveraging to go to safe short term asset 1mo ust

Degens waiting for debt ceiling to be raised but may take a while with political back and forth between left and right and everyone else

Good times, buckle up

Pepe had a 50% correction this morning and I added to my position. It's the correct thing to do

 

[schizo]

Yea, btc and cryptos have been weak. Funnymentals on CT are talking about the 1mo UST surging in price (yield crashing), something about derisking and rebalancing funds in preparation for the Treasury running out of funds earlier than expected due to weaker tax receipts from last year when all investments crashed

It's a mouthful but tl;dr liquidity being sucked out of the markets (risk assets) a deleveraging to go to safe short term asset 1mo ust

Degens waiting for debt ceiling to be raised but may take a while with political back and forth between left and right and everyone else

Good times, buckle up

Pepe had a 50% correction this morning and I added to my position. It's the correct thing to do

From a technical point of view, we should NOT have crossed back under 28.6k. That's definitely concerning. Anyway, we *might* go as low as 25k, although I think 27k is more likely. And if BTC should break below 25k , then we might see real trouble down the road.

On a side note, if there's any correlation between BTC and NDX (as some of you have suggested), I do see a correction coming for NDX.

 

[johnarb]

From a technical point of view, we should NOT have crossed back under 28.6k. That's definitely concerning. Anyway, we *might* go as low as 25k, although I think 27k is more likely. And if BTC should break below 25k , then we might see real trouble down the road.

On a side note, if there's any correlation between BTC and NDX (as some of you have suggested), I do see a correction coming for NDX.

I doubt that btc will go to $25k or lower, there's still too much demand

As far as NDX correlation, sure, same amount of funds and investors are also invested in btc and will derisk all positions when scared

I have an order to close 2 btc perp futures if btc goes back to $29,300. The smaller position of 3 btc allows me to not have to micromanage it and just sit for a whole month if I need to

 

[The_Krakenite]

Perhaps Tesla is down, because even woke ESG investors realized that the company is only profitable because the taxpayer gives it half a BILLION dollars each quarter.... this is termed as a 'credit' on the financial statements.

So what happens when finally the TAX-PAYER gets fed up paying these stupid amounts of $ to every woke ESG bubble fad that they clearly don't even want to be part of or support?

Even Musk agreed that Tesla was stupidly over-priced... that's because politicians and governments are notoriously stupid at creating bubbles and wasting money, only to create more wasteful flows of tax-money after it pops.

 

[schizo]

Even Musk agreed that Tesla was stupidly over-priced

LOL Yeah, after he sold his TSLA shares

governments are notoriously stupid at creating bubbles and wasting money, only to create more wasteful flows of tax-money after it pops.

It's just what it is. Politicians need the votes to stay in power. After all, it ain't their own money on the line.

 

[Specterx]

Perhaps Tesla is down, because even woke ESG investors realized that the company is only profitable because the taxpayer gives it half a BILLION dollars each quarter.... this is termed as a 'credit' on the financial statements.

So what happens when finally the TAX-PAYER gets fed up paying these stupid amounts of $ to every woke ESG bubble fad that they clearly don't even want to be part of or support?

Even Musk agreed that Tesla was stupidly over-priced... that's because politicians and governments are notoriously stupid at creating bubbles and wasting money, only to create more wasteful flows of tax-money after it pops.

The problem isn't the credits (though this particular well will eventually run dry), the problem is rising competitive pressure as illustrated by falling margins and rising inventory. Even if Elon can for now trade margins for volume, in the fullness of time TSLAs enterprise value per car sold will converge with industry averages.

 

[schizo]

Just broke below 28K (actually 27.9K). Ggrrr

Unless we can successfully climb back above 28.6K, the next downside destination is 26.5K (and 25.3K afterward).

 

[The_Krakenite]

This is actually my fault. Now that I spent my monthly dividends elsewhere... the discounts arrived.

Sorry guys.

 

[schizo]

Hot damn, BTC flirting with 27,000 already. At this point in time, 26.5K is a given IMO. The bigger question is will it reverse then or slide further down to 25K. From a technical point of view, that's not entirely impossible.

(See, I've been saying BTC moved up way too fast too soon. This is what usually happens when that happens )

 

[johnarb]

My position is now negative from over $8k positive... I think it was a mistake adding 2 more btc perp futures contracts as my liquidation was below $25k/btc, now it's low $27.3k unless I add more collateral

Btc perp futrues position was liquidated... I plan to play the non-btc crypto assets, that way there's no liquidation worries

Pepe is looking good for adding to the position and I have a few other ones that could bounce hard when bitcoin starts to go back up

I'll increase positions on some non-btc crypto assets