Is the crypto winter over?

[schizo]

Even some amazing stock like Apple has limits. They are constrained by how many phones they can make, by the economy, by their suppliers, by the fact that they have competitors. But with Bitcoin, if people learn real estate is no longer a good store of value, and if they see that dollars are going downhill fast and money isn't safe in the bank and 5% interest isn't enough to keep it in your account, they might be willing to buy at any price. And they aren't buying to later sell for a profit, they are buying to hold for a long time. This brings about the type of buying and the type of buyers that aren't reflected in any charts we have seen in 100 years.

Allow me to play the devil's advocate. How can you be so certain that BTC won't end up like 2022 all over again? Just imagine those poor souls who got in at or near the ATH. While we've recovered a good deal from the low, we're still 60% under water from the top. Yes, after what we've seen so far, BTC can come roaring back from its grave. But as I've already stated in my reply to @johnarb, that's only probable, but not guaranteed. It could also not come back. As such one should have a contingency plan in place. You can't just wish and pray for the loss to somehow magically turn around and you're made whole again.

On a closing note, without meaning to sound condescending, I want to point out 2 perennial rules that all traders should abide by.

1) Don't get emotionally attached to your position, namely, don't get MARRIED to it. (I see Bitcoiners breaking this rule constantly.)

2) If you're wishing and praying for your loss to turn around, you're already finished. (Again, Bitcoiners who are under mounting losses.)

At any rate, I appreciate the comments and replies from y'all.
Now I'm gonna go back to trading and let you guys do the talking.

 

[johnarb]

Otherwise, you will lose it all, and then some. I guarantee it
I'll just stick to my charts.

You're guaranteeing that bitcoin and all crypto assets will not only go to $0 but also for bitcoin to go to negative price by 10's of thousands of $

I cashed out over $700k over 2 years ago and have not had a job since...

Seeing your last reply and how I'm married to bitcoin/cryptos investment... It's not that at all. Once you understand Bitcoin... You will understand that Bitcoiners are not married to fiat

US $ and the British pound and just about all fiat currencies have lost over 99% of their value in the last 100 years

US $ has lost over 70% of its value in the last 50 years. I'm assuming you're over 50, forgive me if you're not... So you're telling me you're willing to accept being married to fiat as your unit of account for your life savings?

Yes you do, because you are like most people in this world... No offense

 

[schizo]

You're guaranteeing that bitcoin and all crypto assets will not only go to $0 but also for bitcoin to go to negative price by 10's of thousands of $

I cashed out over $700k over 2 years ago and have not had a job since...

Seeing your last reply and how I'm married to bitcoin/cryptos investment... It's not that at all. Once you understand Bitcoin... You will understand that Bitcoiners are not married to fiat

US $ and the British pound and just about all fiat currencies have lost over 99% of their value in the last 100 years

US $ has lost over 70% of its value in the last 50 years. I'm assuming you're over 50, forgive me if you're not... So you're telling me you're willing to accept being married to fiat as your unit of account for your life savings?

Yes you do, because you are like most people in this world... No offense

Well, I love you too including all the sarcasms.

Listen, this ain't about fiat. I was talking about the rules that govern good trading or investing. Staying married to your position while it plunges 90% is by all account bad trading. Just because you hate fiat, you shouldn't have to stay in BTC when it's crashing. You can come up with all sorts of excuses for why you stayed in the position, but at the end of the day, you lost a lot money. That has nothing to do with fiat. It's just all bad trading on your part (at least from my point of view).

BTW I am over 50 and my love for fiat is no greater than you.

 

[schizo]

Now allow me to go back to what I love. The bullish momentum is still in play, so I wouldn't be surprised if we bang against 29K again. On the other hand, if we break below the solid trendline, we could pull back to the 26,700 level and become rangebound.

 

[NoahA]

Allow me to play the devil's advocate. How can you be so certain that BTC won't end up like 2022 all over again? Just imagine those poor souls who got in at or near the ATH. While we've recovered a good deal from the low, we're still 60% under water from the top. Yes, after what we've seen so far, BTC can come roaring back from its grave. But as I've already stated in my reply to @johnarb, that's only probable, but not guaranteed. It could also not come back. As such one should have a contingency plan in place. You can't just wish and pray for the loss to somehow magically turn around and you're made whole again.

On a closing note, without meaning to sound condescending, I want to point out 2 perennial rules that all traders should abide by.

1) Don't get emotionally attached to your position, namely, don't get MARRIED to it. (I see Bitcoiners breaking this rule constantly.)

2) If you're wishing and praying for your loss to turn around, you're already finished. (Again, Bitcoiners who are under mounting losses.)

At any rate, I appreciate the comments and replies from y'all.
Now I'm gonna go back to trading and let you guys do the talking.

I agree with you 100%. There is absolutely no guarantee, and as we keep seeing, a crisis leads to lack of liquidity, and then people sell whatever they have.

I follow a great YouTube channel, CTO Larrson, and I think you saw my post where he outlined the Wyckoff playbook, which could mean a poke below 16k. I would almost be happy to accumulate at lower levels because i would have more sats.

You are also right that I am married to this position. Honestly, if Bitcoin doesn't work out, then we are all truly fucked. I'd like to think that I will eventually become a profitable trader, but if not, my buy and hold bitcoin strategy is my backup plan. If that doesn't work either, well, I'm honestly happy being poor. But I have been a perma bear for far too long, and eventually even the bears get it right. Sadly, this will be the big one that rewrites the rule book. So it makes sense to be fully positioned for it. There is nothing any politician can do to make things better now, and the inflation+debt bomb is set. The current trajectory is either towards war or global poverty, and maybe both. Bitcoin will be the final hail marry the authorities turn to when even they give up.

So I guess what I'm saying is that being long bitcoin isn't a trade. Its house insurance when you can already see the forest fire approaching on one side and a hurricane on the other. And the crazy part is, when you see both coming at you, you can still buy insurance!

 

[johnarb]

Well, I love you too including all the sarcasms.

Listen, this ain't about fiat. I was talking about the rules that govern good trading or investing. Staying married to your position while it plunges 90% is by all account bad trading. Just because you hate fiat, you shouldn't have to stay in BTC when it's crashing. You can come up with all sorts of excuses for why you stayed in the position, but at the end of the day, you lost a lot money. That has nothing to do with fiat. It's just all bad trading on your part (at least from my point of view).

BTW I am over 50 and my love for fiat is no greater than you.

I love you too, bud I was not trying to pick on you with that comment, it's not the first time somebody pointed that I would lose everything, it happened in 2017 bull market cycle

But the issue is that I only invested about $7k give or take maybe $2k but already cashed out about $100k in the 2017 bull market cycle

I lost 90% in the 2017 bull market cycle peak to trough ~$1M to a little less than $100k

I'd like to say I learned my lesson for this 2021 bull market cycle and I have gotten better cashing out enough to quit my job and still survived the bear market if I'm correct that it has ended

Just so we're clear... my trading and investing style is flawed according to you.... Can you imagine trading $7k with your techniques all the way to $1M in 2017?

Lose 90% and trade $100K all the way to $2.5M peak in 2021 and still have enough cash and portfolio value over $1M combined at the bottom price of $15k/bitcoin?

If you can honestly answer that with a yes, then I will concede that I suck at trading and investing, but tbh with you, I'm quite happy as it is

 

[schizo]

So I guess what I'm saying is that being long bitcoin isn't a trade. Its house insurance when you can already see the forest fire approaching on one side and a hurricane on the other. And the crazy part is, when you see both coming at you, you can still buy insurance!

BTC's big rally in 2020 was thanks in large part due to another round of QE in the aftermath of Covid outbreak. But as soon as Powell and his team decided to raise the interest rate in 2022, BTC fell off the cliff. And we know there won't be another QE in the foreseeable future. So, with that in mind, do you honestly believe BTC can reach for the zenith like everyone says, be it 100K or 1M?

As for me, I just don't see it... for 2 reasons.

1) Without a huge windfall like QE to give you a boost, you can only go up so much. And we know that's not gonna happen anytime soon.
2) The US government is not shy about their anti-BTC posturing. As such, they ain't gonna in any way shape or form lend help to BTC. I even see Uncle Sam pressuring other nations to do the same (or otherwise).

 

[schizo]

Just so we're clear... my trading and investing style is flawed according to you.... Can you imagine trading $7k with your techniques all the way to $1M in 2017?

Lose 90% and trade $100K all the way to $2.5M peak in 2021 and still have enough cash and portfolio value over $1M combined at the bottom price of $15k/bitcoin?

If you can honestly answer that with a yes, then I will concede that I suck at trading and investing, but tbh with you, I'm quite happy as it is

Well, more power to ya. That must have been a ride of a lifetime. But be sure to preserve what you have. As I've said repeatedly, BTC might NOT come back next time.

 

[NoahA]

And we know there won't be another QE in the foreseeable future.

I guess this is where we disagree. I'm no QE expert, but from what I read, the balance sheet is going up a ton already, over 300B in one week which undid a couple of months of QT. And they are just getting started. All my sources point to more printing and at an ever faster rate. More banks will collapse and more bailouts, or whatever they want to call it, will have to be made. Let me find some charts on Twitter that are shocking....

So first up is the Fed balance sheet. So much for QT.

Next up if the losses on the books of the banks. And sure, they can now hold these till maturity and give it to the Fed in exchange for full value, but that is only for 1 year. We have yet to see what other banks are going to crumble.

And this is the best one... the borrowing window. I've seen a better version of this chart which also shows the recession that followed each spike in borrowing.

There is no way to save the system. The only path forward is throwing money at everything and hope nothing else blows up.

2) The US government is not shy about their anti-BTC posturing. As such, they ain't gonna in any way shape or form lend help to BTC. I even see Uncle Sam pressuring other nations to do the same (or otherwise).

From my perspective, the entire world is moving away from US and USD. China and Russia are posturing very much about their new found bromance, and lots of chatter about buying energy in different currencies. If you ask me, US is being left out of every conversation. US will have no more bargaining power in the very near future.

 

[schizo]

So first up is the Fed balance sheet. So much for QT.

Here's what our buddy, Jerome Powell, said at the press conference (although whether that's to be believed or not is another matter):

"That balance sheet expansion is really temporary lending to banks to meet those special liquidity demands created by the recent tensions. It's not intended to directly alter the stance of monetary policy," Powell said. "We do believe that it's working. It's having its intended effect of bolstering confidence in the banking system and thereby forestalling what might otherwise have been an abrupt and outside tightening in financial conditions."