Is the crypto winter over?

[semperfrosty]

Well, that's what usually happens when a new kid comes on the block. Take for instance, the Internet, circa 1995. I don't know if you were even trading back then, but it became a hot sensation and the Nasdaq literally went through the roof overnight. I remember some analysts making a similar call that the Nasdaq will go to the moon.

But, as we all know, once the novelty wears off, they all become just another commodity.

My prediction for BTC for this year is 50K. Unless there is another round of QE from the government, I think it will be a very tall order that BTC revisits its ATH. Just my 2 worthless satoshis.

Hahaha

Amazing thread guys.

As schizo said,diversity of opinion is so important.

The information dispensed here really opens my eyes to things and opens up more areas to explore.

Thanks a lot.

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves but:

"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."

 

[johnarb]

Well, that's what usually happens when a new kid comes on the block. Take for instance, the Internet, circa 1995. I don't know if you were even trading back then, but it became a hot sensation and the Nasdaq literally went through the roof overnight. I remember some analysts making a similar call that the Nasdaq will go to the moon.

But, as we all know, once the novelty wears off, they all become just another commodity.

My prediction for BTC for this year is 50K. Unless there is another round of QE from the government, I think it will be a very tall order that BTC revisits its ATH. Just my 2 worthless satoshis.

No, I was not trading in 1995 but did put a little bit in the stock market in the early 2000's after the internet stocks crashed but I was too broke for it to be meaningful

You may not know but the money I invested in bitcoin came from credit card debts, during that time, Coinbase was not accepting CC so I had to be creative, my favorite was Virwox, buy linden dollars $sll trade for bitcoins, but high friction costs and there are daily limits, so the other one is through localbitcoins, wire transfer moneygram/western union to bitcoin sellers, those options are gone

The thing with bitcoin and cryptos is that the novelty you speak of, has been coming in cycles, the dotcom mania phase, the tulip mania phase that have all been pointed towards bitcoin and cryptos

Pekelo, the favorite ****** has known about these novelty phases you speak of

Let's take for example, I got in at $100 and within a year it went to $1,200 but then it crashed to $150 within 2 years... novelty wore off...

Then in 2017 bitcoin went all the way up to $20,000, then it crashed to $3,200 within 2 years.... novelty wore off...

Then in 2021 bitcoin went all the way to $69,000, then it crashed to $15,000 within 2 years... novelty wore off...

$500 invested in Eth when it first came out in 2015 (2016?) would have been worth $2.8M in 2017 but then it crashed to $170k within 2 years... novelty wore off...

Then in 2021, that $500 investment was worth over $9M, then it crashed all the way to $1.8M.... novelty wore off..., that $500 investment is only worth a measly $3.6M currently

When people compare Bitcoin and crypto assets to dotcom mania or stock market tech stocks like Tesla, I hope people are being fair in the sense that the speed and magnitude of the moves are nowhere in the same neighborhood

10 years and 3 cycles of life-changing wealth

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637935621552390144

 

[Specterx]

My prediction for BTC for this year is 50K. Unless there is another round of QE from the government, I think it will be a very tall order that BTC revisits its ATH. Just my 2 worthless satoshis.

50k? BTC is still well below the top of the trading range (32k or so) established during the summer 2022 collapses of Terra/Luna, Celsius et al. Diamond-handers are already pissing themselves with bullishness and will probably be adding to their positions right at the peak.

If the Fed resumes QE though all bets are off.

 

[schizo]

Pekelo, the favorite ****** has known about these novelty phases you speak of

Let's take for example, I got in at $100 and within a year it went to $1,200 but then it crashed to $150 within 2 years... novelty wore off...

Then in 2017 bitcoin went all the way up to $20,000, then it crashed to $3,200 within 2 years.... novelty wore off...

Then in 2021 bitcoin went all the way to $69,000, then it crashed to $15,000 within 2 years... novelty wore off...

$500 invested in Eth when it first came out in 2015 (2016?) would have been worth $2.8M in 2017 but then it crashed to $170k within 2 years... novelty wore off...

Then in 2021, that $500 investment was worth over $9M, then it crashed all the way to $1.8M.... novelty wore off..., that $500 investment is only worth a measly $3.2M currently

When people compare Bitcoin and crypto assets to dotcom mania or stock market tech stocks like Tesla, I hope people are being fair in the sense that the speed and magnitude of the moves are nowhere in the same neighborhood

10 years and 3 cycles of life-changing wealth

That favorite ****** we all love, indeed.

I understand all that, but even though BTC came roaring back after 3 spectacular crashes, that doesn't necessary mean it will survive the next crash. You always need to keep that in mind. Otherwise, you will lose it all, and then some. I guarantee it. Moreover, keep things in check. Blind optimism is the most dangerous thing for an investor.

Anyway, enuf from me on this subject. I'll just stick to my charts.

 

[NoahA]

To avoid misunderstanding, I ain't trying to argue with ya. Just want some clarification. It sounds to me like most of you and the twitter posts are not grounded in reality

Totally understand, and I'm happy to explain.

We see gaps in ES all the time during major news events. If there is no buyer at 4000, but 10 lots at 3999, price will drop 4 ticks to fill that order. Even if you have 5 lots of each level, we can easily drop 5 points on barely any trades.

Also consider overnight action. Volume is at least 25% if not lower of the RTH session, and yet price can move 50 points. So what I'm saying is that we may not need $2B or whatever to move price up to $40k. All we need to do is run out of sellers.

In ES, markets have circuit breakers, and ES has no float like a stock anyway. You can open up as many contracts as you want.

But with Bitcoin, what if people stop selling until we hit 100k? What if miners hold what they have? What if exchanges have no more to sell? What if all those coins on exchanges are withdrawn? I doubt they are even available to sell.

The price can move very quickly up on very low volume. And there will be no trading halt even if it jumps 50%. I would worry about my exchange actually transferring out my bitcoin if I just bought it cause they may not have it.

 

[NoahA]

If the Fed resumes QE though

What do you mean if? The amount of holes they need to plug in the coming weeks will be massive.

Just read a good thread about the coming CRE crisis...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638901807027044356

 

[semperfrosty]

No, I was not trading in 1995 but did put a little bit in the stock market in the early 2000's after the internet stocks crashed but I was too broke for it to be meaningful

You may not know but the money I invested in bitcoin came from credit card debts, during that time, Coinbase was not accepting CC so I had to be creative, my favorite was Virwox, buy linden dollars $sll trade for bitcoins, but high friction costs and there are daily limits, so the other one is through localbitcoins, wire transfer moneygram/western union to bitcoin sellers, those options are gone

The thing with bitcoin and cryptos is that the novelty you speak of, has been coming in cycles, the dotcom mania phase, the tulip mania phase that have all been pointed towards bitcoin and cryptos

Pekelo, the favorite ****** has known about these novelty phases you speak of

Let's take for example, I got in at $100 and within a year it went to $1,200 but then it crashed to $150 within 2 years... novelty wore off...

Then in 2017 bitcoin went all the way up to $20,000, then it crashed to $3,200 within 2 years.... novelty wore off...

Then in 2021 bitcoin went all the way to $69,000, then it crashed to $15,000 within 2 years... novelty wore off...

$500 invested in Eth when it first came out in 2015 (2016?) would have been worth $2.8M in 2017 but then it crashed to $170k within 2 years... novelty wore off...

Then in 2021, that $500 investment was worth over $9M, then it crashed all the way to $1.8M.... novelty wore off..., that $500 investment is only worth a measly $3.6M currently

When people compare Bitcoin and crypto assets to dotcom mania or stock market tech stocks like Tesla, I hope people are being fair in the sense that the speed and magnitude of the moves are nowhere in the same neighborhood

10 years and 3 cycles of life-changing wealth

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637935621552390144

Great post.

 

[NoahA]

This is exactly the point I'm trying to make!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639040707662073856

 

[schizo]

We see gaps in ES all the time during major news events. If there is no buyer at 4000, but 10 lots at 3999, price will drop 4 ticks to fill that order. Even if you have 5 lots of each level, we can easily drop 5 points on barely any trades.

Also consider overnight action. Volume is at least 25% if not lower of the RTH session, and yet price can move 50 points. So what I'm saying is that we may not need $2B or whatever to move price up to $40k. All we need to do is run out of sellers.

Appreciate you circling back.

Hey, I hear what you're saying. But is short price spikes sustainable? As you stated, we do periodically see big overnight moves. However, that's usually driven by some bullish news from overseas market. If there's no real news to back up those moves, you will most likely see traders fade it once the RTH opens.

I believe, for the most part, price is essentially at equilibrium. If it's not, you will see arbitragers quickly move in to bring it back to parity.

But with Bitcoin, what if people stop selling until we hit 100k? What if miners hold what they have? What if exchanges have no more to sell? What if all those coins on exchanges are withdrawn? I doubt they are even available to sell.

The price can move very quickly up on very low volume. And there will be no trading halt even if it jumps 50%. I would worry about my exchange actually transferring out my bitcoin if I just bought it cause they may not have it.

But how will you get the price up to 100K if you have no buyers stepping in to hit the offers? What I mean is that there would be no buyers since there won't be any sellers.

And, like you said, let's assume that it's possible to pump up the price to 100K on LOW VOLUME. What makes you think it's also not possible to push the price back down on LOW VOLUME?

And as big as BTC is, I don't think it's that easy to manipulate like some penny stocks.

Of course, I'm just noob and fundamentals ain't my forte. So excuse my ignorance.

 

[NoahA]

If there's no real news to back up those moves, you will most likely see traders fade it once the RTH opens.

At some point, the trading will take second place to the accumulation is my thesis.

But how will you get the price up to 100K if you have no buyers stepping in to hit the offers?

Some of course will. You will have lots of people with resting sell orders to take profits, hoping to get back in lower. But what if it doesn't dip again?

And, like you said, let's assume that it's possible to pump up the price to 100K on LOW VOLUME. What makes you think it's also not possible to push the price back down on LOW VOLUME?

Absolutely right, and I still worry about what happens with those coins from Mt. Gox once they are released. Lots of people will be rich from having to hodl since 2014. It could be a huge selling wave.

Of course, I'm just noob and fundamentals ain't my forte. So excuse my ignorance.

I'm just a noob too, but I absolutely see that there are fundamental differences here. There might not be retraces on huge spikes in price. They might not even be high volume spikes as I'm suggesting and what is also suggested in the tweet by Balaji.

Its almost like a low float stock in a way, but also you have the company buying back shares, so reducing total shares outstanding. And on top of this, the people buying shares aren't looking to sell just because they made 100%. Then want to hold long term. We don't have example of this price behavior, and hence the charts from a TA perspective might look different than anything we have every seen.

Even some amazing stock like Apple has limits. They are constrained by how many phones they can make, by the economy, by their suppliers, by the fact that they have competitors. But with Bitcoin, if people learn real estate is no longer a good store of value, and if they see that dollars are going downhill fast and money isn't safe in the bank and 5% interest isn't enough to keep it in your account, they might be willing to buy at any price. And they aren't buying to later sell for a profit, they are buying to hold for a long time. This brings about the type of buying and the type of buyers that aren't reflected in any charts we have seen in 100 years.