Is the crypto winter over?

[johnarb]

I can't believe how many tweets I'm reading about how companies are restricting moving cash into crypto accounts. They are seriously closing the on-ramps. Not sure if this is bullish or not though. The funniest part is they claim its for the safety of the customer! LOL

There are lots of messages and screenshots on Twitter of banks and exchanges having limits. I could post tweets and articles on coordinated negative stuff from the White House, SEC, FDIC, etc

Europe is also doing the same thing. I just saw a new message from B1tRef1ll that there's a limit on transaction deposits

They are definitely closing or limiting the (more so) on-ramps and (less so for now) off-ramps

I can also point out tweets that there's an increase of bitcoin investors, some are hnw, for example, from Steve Lubka in charge of the institutional investors at Swan Bitcoin or Caitlyn Long, and still others

At a time when there is a non-zero probability of a major financial crisis brought about by failures in the banking industry... Bitcoin becomes more attractive the more the regulators are trying to prevent people from acquiring it

A report from the White House dedicated 30 pages on why crypto assets are worthless. 30 pages

There is also a non-zero probability the powers that be may want to seize the bitcoins but it's unfortunate that many bitcoin owners like to go boating and darn accidents are causing them to lose private keys

I don't like to go boating but I do like fishing and sometimes the best way to get to a fishing spot is to ride a boat, so I'm also not immune to accidents and have lost many private keys as a result

There are places that do not have boats and are more friendly to crypto assets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638951075762806793

 

[NoahA]

There are lots of messages and screenshots on Twitter of banks and exchanges having limits. I could post tweets and articles on coordinated negative stuff from the White House, SEC, FDIC, etc

Europe is also doing the same thing. I just saw a new message from B1tRef1ll that there's a limit on transaction deposits

They are definitely closing or limiting the (more so) on-ramps and (less so for now) off-ramps

I can also point out tweets that there's an increase of bitcoin investors, some are hnw, for example, from Steve Lubka in charge of the institutional investors at Swan Bitcoin or Caitlyn Long, and still others

At a time when there is a non-zero probability of a major financial crisis brought about by failures in the banking industry... Bitcoin becomes more attractive the more the regulators are trying to prevent people from acquiring it

A report from the White House dedicated 30 pages on why crypto assets are worthless. 30 pages

There is also a non-zero probability the powers that be may want to seize the bitcoins but it's unfortunate that many bitcoin owners like to go boating and darn accidents are causing them to lose private keys

I don't like to go boating but I do like fishing and sometimes the best way to get to a fishing spot is to ride a boat, so I'm also not immune to accidents and have lost many private keys as a result

There are places that do not have boats and are more friendly to crypto assets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638951075762806793

Very interesting twitter post. See... This is what I mean 5k bitcoin. Where the fuck do people get 2 million? If all they do is add up exchange addresses, they are just dumb. Did SVB have $200B of equity? Most was deposits and hence liabilities. And if course M2M... They were negative.

Where does an exchange go to stock up on supplies? Will miners sell? Dylan is bang on... We will see an incredible candle one day!

 

[schizo]

Where does an exchange go to stock up on supplies? Will miners sell? Dylan is bang on... We will see an incredible candle one day!

But how will the price go up when nobody is selling? I mean price can only go up when demand exceeds supply. This is straight out of Econ 101.

 

[semperfrosty]

I can't believe how many tweets I'm reading about how companies are restricting moving cash into crypto accounts. They are seriously closing the on-ramps. Not sure if this is bullish or not though. The funniest part is they claim its for the safety of the customer! LOL

I know most don't believe the Balaji bet, and I agree it sounds outrageous, but so much circumstantial evidence is adding and we have never had something as pure as bitcoin to be the release valve for all the pressure building up. Sure people bought gold in the past, but when gold isn't available, you just don't get any. Its not like a citizen in the past could have pushed up the price of gold. And these days, you can probably buy all the paper gold you want anyway, which also won't push the price up in any meaningful way.

But the scarcity of this bitcoin is something that can't be fake. And for the record, I still don't believe there are 2 million bitcoins on exchanges. Yes, they may be in customer accounts, but it doesn't mean they are available for sale. If this was the case, these exchange would be worth billions of dollar, which they are not. Those bitcoin mostly belong to depositors I think, or perhaps miners, or I don't know who else. But no way that there is 2 million bitcoins as inventory for sale.

Here is a tweet on a major spike down on one exchange. No idea what caused it, but I'm sure exchanges will be running out of bitcoin way before 2 million are sold (the theory is that each exchange is actually quite independent when dealing with a scare asset and prices will not be so in sync as inventory levels shift). And even if we consider 100k available, once the first 50k are gone, those next 50k will be at a much higher price.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638895592033198080

Good post and thanks,I was curious where that drop came from yesterday.

 

[NoahA]

But how will the price go up when nobody is selling? I mean price can only go up when demand exceeds supply. This is straight out of Econ 101.

Duh... Of course there will be some transactions. But you only need 0.0001 BTC to sell at $40k with nothing in-between to reprice all the bitcoins!

 

[schizo]

But you only need 0.0001 BTC to sell at $40k with nothing in-between to reprice all the bitcoins!

I dunno what you mean by this. Scarcity is one thing. How would 0.0001 BTC be able to move the price in a significant manner? That would be like saying 1 lot is enough to move ES by 10 points or more, which would be ludicrous. In order to drive up the price of ES by that much, you need volume...a lot of buyers with big volume. So what am I missing?

To avoid misunderstanding, I ain't trying to argue with ya. Just want some clarification. It sounds to me like most of you and the twitter posts are not grounded in reality.

First, you are MARRIED to your position. Hence, you rationalize why BTC must only go up without looking at the possibility that it can also go down, as we've seen last year.

Second, which is more important IMO, the US government will not allow BTC to debase the value of the greenback, and thereby negatively impact its influence and position on global trade (or rather its hegemony). This is why there is Operation Chokehold 2.0, and likely will be followed by Chokehold Infinity. Not saying that will happen or that Uncle Sam will succeed, but you can't rule it out completely either.

Third, $1 Million dollar? I've been in this game for 30 years and have seen and heard many things. That's the most (fill-in-the-blank) thing I've ever heard.

PS. I admit I'm a black sheep. But diversity of opinion is important, no?

 

[johnarb]

There's slight nuances to the discussion. Some things are being conflated, which I'd like to bring to light

Buyers and sellers in the US are being restricted, also happening in Europe especially in the UK, but in other places in the world, there are no restrictions at all

In Asia, no restrictions and funny thing is the reversal in Hong Kong, a proxy for the Chinese markets, completely open now

Bitcoin is extremely divisible. There are 100M satoshis in 1 bitcoin, so if the price goes up to $100k/btc tomorrow, I may sell 10M satoshis for $10k just to celebrate and spend on stupid stuff

This is a big difference in all the Monet art pieces that you cannot sell 10M atoms of a painting

Bitcoins are scarce digital assets and the supplies are limited, and the liquidity are limited which causes very high volatility for big buys and sells

And people are being smart and self-custody and having boating accidents left and right. This is what gold bugs have dreamed of

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638926117179469824

 

[schizo]

Bitcoin is extremely divisible. There are 100M satoshis in 1 bitcoin, so if the price goes up to $100k/btc tomorrow, I may sell 10M satoshis for $10k

But would the market even budge when you sell 10M satoshis? It surely wouldn't tank from $28K to, say, $25K. And that's my point. In order to significantly move the market, you need big money coming into the market flexing their muscles.

 

[johnarb]

But would the market even budge when you sell 10M satoshis? It surely wouldn't tank from $28K to, say, $25K. And that's my point. In order to significantly move the market, you need big money coming into the market flexing their muscles.

I think there's confusion, I agree with you on volume, Noah is arguing a different point which is if a big entity wanted to buy $10B worth of Bitcoin today, and with the limited number of bitcoins available on exchanges, what would be the price impact?

Now, before you say there's no one like that, Tesla bought $1.8B worth in 2021 when the bitcoin supplies on exchanges were much higher. We are currently at record all time low

Apple with their $200B in cash could put 5%, or how about the Saudis?

Third, $1 Million dollar? I've been in this game for 30 years and have seen and heard many things. That's the most (fill-in-the-blank) thing I've ever heard.

Here's the other part of the confusion in the current discussion. Balaji has a bet for $1M per bitcoin in the next 90 days as a result of the US banking system collapse. This is good advertisement for Bitcoin, but...

The fact that one bitcoin will go to $1M within 10 years is being conflated with the above which may not come true

If you think that is impossible, it's the same thought I had when I first bought bitcoin at $100/ea in 2013

On Reddit people were posting that bitcoin will go to $50k and I said no fucking way!! That would mean bitcoin market cap will be over $1 Trillion!!!

That's a 50,000% increase!!! I said I'll be happy with $10k/bitcoin...

And here we are... A measly 3,500% increase in bitcoin is somehow impossible

 

[schizo]

If you think that is impossible, it's the same thought I had when I first bought bitcoin at $100/ea in 2013

On Reddit people were posting that bitcoin will go to $50k and I said no fucking way!! That would mean bitcoin market cap will be over $1 Trillion!!!

That's a 50,000% increase!!! I said I'll be happy with $10k/bitcoin...

And here we are... A measly 3,500% increase in bitcoin is somehow impossible

Well, that's what usually happens when a new kid comes on the block. Take for instance, the Internet, circa 1995. I don't know if you were even trading back then, but it became a hot sensation and the Nasdaq literally went through the roof overnight. I remember some analysts making a similar call that the Nasdaq will go to the moon.

But, as we all know, once the novelty wears off, they all become just another commodity.

My prediction for BTC for this year is 50K. Unless there is another round of QE from the government, I think it will be a very tall order that BTC revisits its ATH. Just my 2 worthless satoshis.