Is the crypto winter over?

[johnarb]

Credit Suisse, along with Deutsche Bank, is a rogue bank. They should go out of business. As far as I can remember, they always get into trouble in one form or another. If not that, they're always stirring up scandals for themselves. They're run by thugs and idiots.

Credit Suisse is not a shock to the system though. We all knew they were underwater many months ago; now that the tide is going out, even the woke are starting to finally see it.

Yes, definitely CS and DB should have gone bankrupt and shutdown a long time ago and most everyone are aware...

But it's the contagion effect to their counterparties, heck even the businesses that supply to them or the landlords they rent buildings from or the shareholders or the creditors and then the counterparties to those folks.... that's what's going to shock the global financial system which is probably why they are being propped up and not allowed to go bankrupt, technically zombie banks

 

[johnarb]

I think it will break below the zone.

I like this chart analysis more than yours

https://twitter.com/x/status/1636130269110362112

 

[schizo]

I like this chart analysis more than yours

If the recent moves weren't so parabolic, then I would agree. This is not good in the long run. How it goes up is usually how it comes back down. I know you want to see it go UP, UP, and only UP. But that's not how the market works.

This kinda reminds me of the Nasdaq bubble in 1999. It was the SAME euphoria back then. Everyone believed in the future and that it was different from the past. And, of course, we all found out later that it wasn't any different from the past. Trust me, I've been there time and time again. Nothing is different. It's only your imagination.

 

[NoahA]

If the recent moves weren't so parabolic, then I would agree. This is not good in the long run. How it goes up is usually how it comes back down. I know you want to see it go UP, UP, and only UP. But that's not how the market works.

This kinda reminds me of the Nasdaq bubble in 1999. It was the SAME euphoria back then. Everyone believed in the future and that it was different from the past. And, of course, we all found out later that it wasn't any different from the past. Trust me, I've been there time and time again. Nothing is different. It's only your imagination.

Except that when we broke above 20k the first time, it kept on going until 41k, then a 30% retracement, and then the rally continued. Plus, to rally from here isn't new territory. We would only be going up to all time highs, which is I think a big different than if we bust through 70k, and then we have to worry about some sort of retracement.

 

[johnarb]

If the recent moves weren't so parabolic, then I would agree. This is not good in the long run. How it goes up is usually how it comes back down. I know you want to see it go UP, UP, and only UP. But that's not how the market works.

This kinda reminds me of the Nasdaq bubble in 1999. It was the SAME euphoria back then. Everyone believed in the future and that it was different from the past. And, of course, we all found out later that it wasn't any different from the past. Trust me, I've been there time and time again. Nothing is different. It's only your imagination.

I understand what you're saying but a 30% move in bitcoin is hardly parabolic from my experience

You're correct that I want it to go up fast in the short term but that's because of my short term trade position, but if this is the start of a new bull market, it is usually a 1-2 years of uptrend

Trading is a new thing for me. It's fun gambling, the emotional highs and lows, but once the bull market gets going, this will be too much of a distraction and hopefully I'll stop as I get busy with pure cryptos non-leverage trading/investing

As nice as a 1000-2000% move in bitcoin move during a bull market cycle, non-btc cryptos are where you can make enormous gains, 1000-20,000%+ moves are common

My post histories show the successes I've had on this past bull market cycle and how it allowed me to survive huge mistakes and losses without blowing up

But the key thing is risk-management. In poker, you get all your chips in on a 90% +ev hand against a big stack, you can still get outdrawn and you got no more chips

I've been in bitcoin bull market cycles 2013 and 2017 and 2020 and I've learned many lessons

There's this dude, Tai Zen, who was in Bitcoin a little bit earlier than me. I'll share an important video from him

I do not recommend buying into his program or subscriptions (I never did and never will), imo, the emotional strengthening lessons from his youtube videos he shares for free are what's valuable

I've read many many books on trading. That's why I'm still here and confident that I will not blow up and have to return back to work

 

[schizo]

Except that when we broke above 20k the first time, it kept on going until 41k, then a 30% retracement, and then the rally continued. Plus, to rally from here isn't new territory. We would only be going up to all time highs, which is I think a big different than if we bust through 70k, and then we have to worry about some sort of retracement.

But look at how much it fell from its ATH. For one thing, you normally wouldn't see a V-reversal at the bottom, followed by one big leap up to its previous ATH. There will be many many pullbacks along the way. Consider these as a pause to take a breather. And they're actually a good thing. You want to see rallies pause then resume.

Also if you pull up the weekly chart, you would know that we're still basing. We haven't yet broken out of the range. It's not until we go above 30,000 (next resistance) can the bulls finally declare victory.

 

[schizo]

As nice as a 1000-2000% move in bitcoin move during a bull market cycle, non-btc cryptos are where you can make enormous gains, 1000-20,000%+ moves are common

I'm all ears. Let me in the details.

 

[NoahA]

But look at how much it fell from its ATH. For one thing, you normally wouldn't see a V-reversal at the bottom, followed by one big leap up to its previous ATH. There will be many many pullbacks along the way. Consider these as a pause to take a breather. And they're actually a good thing. You want to see rallies pause then resume.

Also if you pull up the weekly chart, you would know that we're still basing. We haven't yet broken out of the range. It's not until we go above 30,000 (next resistance) can the bulls finally declare victory.

View attachment 309099

I do agree and see what you are saying, but I also think that different rules for bitcoin can apply. What else do we see drop 70-90% 4 or 5 times and recover every time? Nothing from the equities world I don't think applies here. Sure, basing and a gradual rise is perhaps better, but I don't think something as transformative as bitcoin needs to follow the same rules you would use for any stock.

 

[schizo]

What else do we see drop 70-90% 4 or 5 times and recover every time?

I'm not sure how to respond. Do I seriously want to invest in something that crashes 90% 4 to 5 times, although it might recover its losses? Luckily, I'm a very short-term trader.

I don't think something as transformative as bitcoin needs to follow the same rules you would use for any stock.

Fair enough, but I'm solely basing my opinion on the technicals. I'm nowhere knowledgeable about bitcoin as you or John. That said, I say we're still not technically out of the wood just yet. I've always said you need to get above 25,000 to have turned the corner. But look what happened. There were 5 instances where it crossed above 25,000 but they all reversed and closed below it. Even when it went up as high as 26,500 yesterday, it closed below 25,000. Doesn't that tell you anything? They've set up a trap. Let's just hope that I'm wrong.

 

[johnarb]

I'm all ears. Let me in the details.

Not sure if you're mocking me but I'll bite

Ampl risk-capital on the position was ~$28k, peak value of position was over $700k (no one catches the top), got out in sections about ~$200k traded to other cryptos

Cel tokens, risk capital less than $30k, peak value of position was over $2M (no one catches the top), started getting out early, fully out over $800k traded to other cryptos

There's the Tomb forks protocol tokens I was involved in, risk capital was higher, but made several 6 figures value traded to other cryptos, f*cking got out-traded semi-rug-pulled on one of the projects by a 15yo ex-dev team member, lol, the 15 yo dumped at the top over $4M worth. I say semi-rug pulled because lots of value still left after the incident which I did not get out and lost lots of profits

I knew about LUNA at $1 before it went to $120 and eventually to $0, I don't have profit experience on it

I knew about SOL at about $10 before it went on a run to over $250 then back down to about $20 now. I don't have profit experience on it

I did not get involved with the blockchain gaming tokens, although I knew about MANA and SAND and ENJIN that shot up thousands of %, I don't have profit experience to share

On discord, one of the whales shared how he was able to locate a wallet he had used to invest $100 during ico, and dumped them on dexes showing transaction ID's on the blockchain worth about over $20M

Someone here got in to FTM at 0.03 and it went to over $3

But all these things I mentioned are only the ones I knew about, many tokens went up 1000's of % during this previous bull market cycle

These were much more than in 2017 cycle and which was much more than 2013 bull market cycle, it's a function of the amount of $ coming in on every cycle growing exponentially

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https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/ampleforth-token-ampl.347381/

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/defi-going-bankless.349553/page-2#post-5204866