Is the crypto winter over?

schizo said:
Be that as it may, I don't think this will have a contagion effect like in the aftermath of Lehman.

Look, everyone thought the world would collapse in 2008. The way the stock market behaved at the time made that a real possibility. But what happened? The stock market did not blow up. We didn't go through another Great Depression. In fact, the market ran up and up and up for the next 15 years.

BTW this dude must be reading my posts LOL. He's saying the same thing I've been saying, more or less. Click on the video. ;)
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We're not wishing for a financial crisis or end of the world, we're wishing for a Fed pivot, hence why I'm back on the short term trade long btc perp futures

If the Fed continues the aggressive rate hikes, say a 50 bps, then the m2m losses of the banks holding treasuries and other long dated securities will cause more bank failures

Abra is an OG crypto firm, I remembered their ads from 2015 or 2016. Bill is one of the good guys in the crypto industry, unlike evil Sam Scammer-Fraud
 
johnarb said:
If the Fed continues the aggressive rate hikes, say a 50 bps, then the m2m losses of the banks holding treasuries and other long dated securities will cause more bank failures
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As I state above, Fed and Powell will back off ("capitulate") from their current hawkish stance. My take is they will go for 25 BPS hike in March and then 0 thereafter. It's just inevitable. I can smell it mile off.

schizo said:
Lastly, I don't think Jerome Powell can win in the long run. He will eventually capitulate and tone down his rhetoric. He'll go for 25 bps in March but that will be it. From May on, I'm willing to bet he will maintain a "no more hike" policy.
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Look, everyone thought the world would collapse in 2008.
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Actually, it DID collapse. We ended up kicking the can down the road... and now are paying for that insanity. Books and books were written on the everything bubble this insanity was causing, but no one wanted to face the reality... until it comes time to pay the piper.

Everyone wanted to believe we lived in a new paradigm, where we magically create something from nothing and life can go on forever with nothing going down.

No one apparently thought there was a point to make politicians accountable either for reckless vote-buying either. After all, we live in a new paradigm...
 
Back in 2008/9, the BoE said that reducing interest rates to near-zero was just a temporary measure. I remember scrabbling around to get our savings on to a decent fixed rate before they disappeared. I thought 3 years ought to be long enough for things go back to normal. How wrong that proved to be. :rolleyes:
 
Back in 2008/9, the BoE said that reducing interest rates to near-zero was just a temporary measure
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Buwahaha! Reminds me of Canada's lying government. Historians here have lost count regarding the total # of times our government has stated: "This new tax," or "The raise in tax," was supposed to just be 'temporary'!

Nothing is as definite as when the Canadian government tells you these are 'temporary'. Even the second coming of Christ would not be able to reverse them.
 
schizo said:
We should see a brief pullback down to 20,300 before resuming higher. So don't get too greedy just yet.
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Funnymentals strongly disagree with your chart analysis

I already said I have a bet on the short term casino, not planning to add until bitcoin is above $27k

Do you have a trade position or waiting for an entry?

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johnarb said:
Funnymentals strongly disagree with your chart analysis. I already said I have a bet on the short term casino, not planning to add until bitcoin is above $27k
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So does that mean you believe we'll head right back up to 27K from here?

Either way, I also think BTC will go up but it'll likely make a double bottom before breaking out in earnest.
 
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