Is the crypto winter over?

[johnarb]

It's not that I'm merely blind to FA, I don't follow it, period. To me, it's all baked in the price. If there's a fundamental reason, it will show up on the chart. That's my belief.

I made 2 calls last week, $30K by Sunday night, of course it has not hit, but let's say that it does and I also said $100K by end of this year

I also posted on my thread we're in a bull market

Let's say 30k hits and 100k hits...

How was it possible that your charts did not predict them?

 

[schizo]

I made 2 calls last week, $30K by Sunday night, of course it has not hit, but let's say that it does and I also said $100K by end of this year

I also posted on my thread we're in a bull market

Let's say 30k hits and 100k hits...

How was it possible that your charts did not predict them?

Well, first of all, I think I've made myself clear earlier that I'm BULLISH on bitcoin in the long haul. However, I expected a pullback before resuming higher, which didn't materialize (I'm still learning).

I Just want you to know that I'm not a HODLer like you. I know you don't short based on your conviction that BTC will ultimately reach for the sky. I, on the other hand, am a opportunist (for the lack of better word). I'll go short whenever I believe the price is overextended, even if I may eventually get stopped out like today. And if I'm wrong, well so be it. I'll just flip right back to long. I don't rationalize about my trading. If I'm right, I'm right. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

How was it possible that your charts did not predict them?

Oh, c'mon now, I've had a few good calls myself last month.

You seem to misunderstand TA. TA is more reactive than predictive. Yes, there's a way to make a prediction based on previous prices like measured moves, but that's only as good as knowing what to do when you're wrong, namely, react to the failed prediction. For example, I bailed out of my short today knowing that my prediction was wrong.

 

[johnarb]

Oh, c'mon now, I've had a few good calls myself last month.

You seem to misunderstand TA. TA is more reactive than predictive. Yes, there's a way to make a prediction based on previous prices like measured moves, but that's only as good as knowing what to do when you're wrong, namely, react to the failed prediction. For example, I bailed out of my short today knowing that my prediction was wrong.

Don't sell yourself short, you've had great calls!

However, last Sunday after the bailout announcement for the banks, us Bitcoiners on Crypto Twitter were already celebrating victory

That's how big the fundamentals impact that was. We finally got the news that fiat currencies are going to do what it will always do... debase

 

[schizo]

However, last Sunday after the bailout announcement for the banks, us Bitcoiners on Crypto Twitter were already celebrating victory

That's how big the fundamentals impact that was. We finally got the news that fiat currencies are going to do what it will always do... debase

That's why I said I'm still learning. It never crossed my mind that a bank failure would cause people to flock to bitcoin. Now I know.

I made 2 calls last week, $30K by Sunday night, of course it has not hit, but let's say that it does and I also said $100K by end of this year

I would like to ask you the same question. Suppose it doesn't go up to $100K, what are you gonna do? Do you have a concrete exit plan? Or will you sit through another 77% drawdown like we saw in the previous year? I personally don't see any good reason why you should. You can always get back in later at (much) lower price. Nobody is gonna point fingers at your for doing that. Rather they will applaud for being an astute investor.

 

[johnarb]

That's why I said I'm still learning. It never crossed my mind that a bank failure would cause people to flock to bitcoin. Now I know.


I would like to ask you the same question. Suppose it doesn't go up to $100K, what are you gonna do? Do you have a concrete exit plan? Or will you sit through another 77% drawdown like we saw in the previous year? I personally don't see any good reason why you should. You can always get back in later at (much) lower price. Nobody is gonna point fingers at your for doing that. Rather they will applaud for being an astute investor.

It's a great question, there is no exit plan with Bitcoin, per se

The thing I do is to cut the bare minimum holding, for example, this bear market cycle, when I finally accepted it was a bear market, I announced on my thread that I'll be hodling 15 btc and never sell

I increased it to 18 btc when I sold my Bored Ape for a big loss...

The problem with selling all the bitcoins and trying to get back in at "the bottom" is that many Bitcoiners right now are still waiting to buy back at $12k or $10k all the bitcoins they sold

As Bitcoiners, Bitcoin is our exit... out of the fiat monetary system. Bitcoin is our savings

but we do have to make sure we have enough fiat for our living expenses however long a bear market may last. I did that with this bear market cycle

 

[NoahA]

Tai Zen doesn't post much on Twitter, I used to watch a lot of his videos in 2017 bull market, he and his crew hit it big with altcoins,

Yes, I think he said that in a video I already watched. He discussed how most of the guys who got a 100x or higher was because they couldn't get out of the trade. Kind of a forced HODL, and not unlike Mt. Gox caused forced HODLing of bitcoin.

I'm honestly thinking though that this time around, alt season won't happen nearly as much. I see bitcoin is blowing away most other coins. I'm still sitting on major losses from SOL, about 8k, and ADA, about 2k.. so that really sucks. My life is always being too late. I'm sure if I got in during the summer, when bitcoin was at 30k, vs. in the fall after it was coming down from 69k, I perhaps would have taken a 20 or 30% profit and gotten out. But I started getting into SOL and ADA with barely not a single profit. Just averaged in... and it got lower and lower. Now, I'm just not sure if I should hold any longer. I'd like a $50 SOL, and then maybe get out for a 75% loss which would be almost a relief and then go into bitcoin which I have no trouble holding.

 

[NoahA]

The problem with selling all the bitcoins and trying to get back in at "the bottom" is that many Bitcoiners right now are still waiting to buy back at $12k or $10k all the bitcoins they sold

Exactly right. Red Duke is waiting for sub $10k, and he may never get it. But at the same time, buying at $27k sucks as well when we had months of buying opportunity at 16k or 17k.

I did see a good post from Sledon Evans of all people (he was all in on Luna so not exactly a pro... LOL), but he mentioned how this run up is perhaps not strong hands or something like this. He said Bitcoin needs a steady rise, but the comment that really caught my eye was that if economy is getting bad, who will have the money to push prices higher. After March 2020, we of course saw huge government cheques providing cash, but this time around, we will not get the free money. Sure, the banks get bailouts, but no free cash for regular people.

Plus, if a crisis does really come about over the next few weeks, the lack of liquidity will more than likely cause a panic sell. I'm sure many of us are waiting to buy, but shit, if there is a good chance its at least going to 15k, then waiting is of course better. We can't rule out a run to 30k, then 40k, and never a drop below 20k again, but maybe waiting a bit now make sense.

 

[NoahA]

I'm not bullish enough. Balaji is betting that bitcoin will be worth over $1M in 90 days...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1636827051419389952

This is incredible. Who is this guy? I got interested after seeing his post from Jan 31, 2020 and how he essentially predicted everything about COVID and the government reactions. Jesus, it was spot on.

And I do think it's possible. We have the fuel now from the banking crisis. Imagine some companies coming in to put Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Exchanges will be scrambling to meet cold wallet withdrawals and even they might be shown to be keeping price down.

Think about it everyone. If I buy 0.1 Bitcoin, it essentially doesn't do anything to the price because the exchange has it in their inventory. But if all of a sudden their inventory starts running low and they need to source more Bitcoin but nobody wants to sell it to them because the miners are holding theirs what will this actually do to price?

The market cap is actually very low and imagine if the numbers that are being thrown around with this banking crisis like 10 or 20 billion just to prop up one bank is a number that Bitcoin is asked to absorb.

What if instead of a company purchasing treasuries because they don't want to be in cash decides to put a few billion into Bitcoin. I do see a path for a $1 million dollar Bitcoin to be honest. If the rally is gradual it gives too much time for people to get in so it will almost have to be quick in order to leave most people blindsided and hence add the fuel.

 

[johnarb]

Yes, I think he said that in a video I already watched. He discussed how most of the guys who got a 100x or higher was because they couldn't get out of the trade. Kind of a forced HODL, and not unlike Mt. Gox caused forced HODLing of bitcoin.

I'm honestly thinking though that this time around, alt season won't happen nearly as much. I see bitcoin is blowing away most other coins

During the bull market (when the video was made) there was plenty of liquidity from the hype-altcoins. It's during the bear market that liquidity dries up, but definitely agree with him that if someone is shilling a low volume coin, stay away as far as you can

Bitcoin is the reserve-currency of the cryptos ecosystem so as bitcoin price goes up, all the coins go up in value, too. Many coins are outperforming bitcoin at the moment

I'm in FTM at 19 cents beginning of the year it's currently at 50 cents, and it's very liquid $500M daily volume I trade it on a dex $1000 per trade, less than 50 cents slippage, and no price impact

 

[semperfrosty]

Yes, I think he said that in a video I already watched. He discussed how most of the guys who got a 100x or higher was because they couldn't get out of the trade. Kind of a forced HODL, and not unlike Mt. Gox caused forced HODLing of bitcoin.

I'm honestly thinking though that this time around, alt season won't happen nearly as much. I see bitcoin is blowing away most other coins. I'm still sitting on major losses from SOL, about 8k, and ADA, about 2k.. so that really sucks. My life is always being too late. I'm sure if I got in during the summer, when bitcoin was at 30k, vs. in the fall after it was coming down from 69k, I perhaps would have taken a 20 or 30% profit and gotten out. But I started getting into SOL and ADA with barely not a single profit. Just averaged in... and it got lower and lower. Now, I'm just not sure if I should hold any longer. I'd like a $50 SOL, and then maybe get out for a 75% loss which would be almost a relief and then go into bitcoin which I have no trouble holding.

Im having the same issue with Algorand and Arcblock which I largely bought on impulse and on a single opinion.

Lately I've seen BTC dip lower and rise higher than both these during volatility.

Both tiny holdings but id much rather have the funds in BTC.

Hoping for a pump in each is terrible trading but thats where Im at.

I cant find a way to justify not owning ETH and LTC so they are locked in.