Is the crypto winter over?

[johnarb]

Hey y'all, hope you're doing okay. I ain't sure about the fundamentals, but the technicals are indicating we're still bearish. I'm thinking we'll fall down to at least to the dotted line. If that breaks apart, then well hail mary. As for me, still chugging along as usual.

I made the bulk of my changes yesterday and previous night. Today, I only made one change which is to add a small amount 1k USDT to the collateral to lower the liquidation to around $22,800sh which I thought could hit after the FOMC meeting notes, so basically a give-up on that level

I'm on barbell approach on the crypto portfolio until mid-to-end of May, safe and extreme risk, no more middle of the road, the tl;dr I'll save for my crypto macro thread

I've drank enough kool-aid data from Twitter macro analysts I consider experts.

They are saying good 1st half, but a hard landing on the 2nd half with a severe recession almost a certainty

Sell in May and go away...

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/be-present-aff45d6421b4

 

[schizo]

I've drank enough kool-aid data from Twitter macro analysts I consider experts.

LOL. Yeah, hence why I stay away from these macro gurus like a plague.

Anyway, I got stopped out of my short!!

Yet I don't know if this is a reversal or not, or if it's merely mirroring the equities tonight. Or it could be a last ditch effort, who knows. I'm sitting on the fence on this one, not committed either way.

Personally, I can't say I like the way BTC moves. It's hard to prove but there's definitely an element of manipulation.

 

[Overnight]

You know how that inflation has been "sticky"? Well, BTC sure seems to be sticky at that 20K mark. Long-term, look what is has done. It dropped to that level, hung out there for a bit, then made this crazy drop to 16K and hung out there for a while...Now it jumped through that level to like 25K, and now is trying to find that magnet level of 20K again. Crypto folks are crazy.

 

[johnarb]

LOL. Yeah, hence why I stay away from these macro gurus like a plague.

Anyway, I got stopped out of my short!!

Yet I don't know if this is a reversal or not, or if it's merely mirroring the equities tonight. Or it could be a last ditch effort, who knows. I'm sitting on the fence on this one, not committed either way.

Personally, I can't say I like the way BTC moves. It's hard to prove but there's definitely an element of manipulation.

I don't have any plans to sell any bitcoins from the local wallets until btc is over $500k each which would be in 5 years

The only benefit I can realize on the btc short term moves would be through the casino btc perpetual futures trades.... and to some degree, the effect on the alt coins holdings which I have no long term bag holding plans

That is why May is a critical decision point for all these short term positions

tl;dr I do have a locked staked until December,but have a way around it, as the crypto asset is available to "borrow" on the defi platform so I can synthetically short in May giving up some of the yields of the stake

---------------

Crypto folks are crazy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-from-global-stocks-in-50-surge-defying-macro

Bitcoin Breaks Away From Stocks in 50% Surge Defying Macro Peril

"A 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has slid below 0.3"

 

[Overnight]

...
Bitcoin Breaks Away From Stocks in 50% Surge Defying Macro Peril

"A 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has slid below 0.3"

I so wish I could show you the video that visualizes EXACTLY what you are talking about. It's a BattleStar Galactica video. When the Galactica breaks it's back. PERFECT.

 

[johnarb]

A nice looking chart but not necessarily bullish, though

If I get liquidated on my long btc perp futures 22.8k btc level, I'll stop trading and focus on my non-btc positions (yield farms)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1629169366179741698

 

[schizo]

 

[johnarb]

If I get liquidated on my long btc perp futures 22.8k btc level, I'll stop trading...

got liquidated...

 

[schizo]

got liquidated...

Bro, you got shaken out. But don't feel too bad. I think this damn thing ultimately will drop down to 21,500.

 

[johnarb]

Bro, you got shaken out. But don't feel too bad. I think this damn thing ultimately will drop down to 21,500.

yup, I was thinking of adding a little bit more collateral this morning (a few hours before liquidation wick down) but where does it end, lol

I'm still way exposed to bitcoin/cryptos, the only difference is that I don't have to worry about liquidation and still planning to hodl until May if funnymentals don't go to hell before that time