The dream DCA:
Is the crypto winter over?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
To be honest, I do think John has been a little harsh, but I completely understand why. The FUD has absolutely wrecked so many people. Peter Schiff has done so much damage to investors. Most of the FUD is not backed up with rational arguments, and bitcoiners have a rational argument for every single claim that is made. Even the government is spreading FUD and doing attacks. The ETF finally had to be approved because it was obvious that Gensler had personal issues. Elizabeth Warren attacks from the money laundering aspect, and her numbers are 100 times off. The USD is actually the preferred laundering vehicle. Then you have the energy agency demanding to know everything the miners are doing, and that information is already mostly available anyway with the electricity grid operators.Are you done yet?If you have more, let it all out. Better to do all your dirty laundry now than later because I don't see this thing going up anywhere near $1M.
Dude, learn to be humble for once. Speaking of which, I think all the financial mess we've gotten into and the subsequent money printing was due to lack of humility (eg. greed) by Wall Street. By the same token, I see the same lack of humility amongst bitcoiners. And the same pattern will likely repeat in the foreseeable future.
Those people who have been around a decade, like John, are true heroes because they kept this whole thing going during the darkest days. Someone needs to buy the crashes and advocate for bitcoin. I think this gets emotionally tiresome, and I've seen many in the community fade off into the sunset. But when you think about it, John has single-handedly kept this crypto forum going. Who is a bigger poster than him answering any question? @Baron needs to make him a mod or something for all the amazing work he has done here. So I think he is allowed to shit on you every now and then.
Plus, when this 100k candle comes, perhaps we will all see that trading bitcoin has been a waste of time, and the buy and hold crowd will be much further ahead. This is honestly my fear. Having $5k cash in my account waiting for another dip, and then missing out on huge profits when the big one comes. Since you didn't want to buy at 73k, you for sure won't want to buy at 100k, waiting for the dip, and then it goes right to 200k, and now you're getting half as many sats.
No trader wants to chase... that is the one sin apparently. But I think bitcoin will re-write this rule, for bitcoin at least.
To be honest, I do think John has been a little harsh, but I completely understand why. The FUD has absolutely wrecked so many people. Peter Schiff has done so much damage to investors. Most of the FUD is not backed up with rational arguments, and bitcoiners have a rational argument for every single claim that is made. Even the government is spreading FUD and doing attacks. The ETF finally had to be approved because it was obvious that Gensler had personal issues. Elizabeth Warren attacks from the money laundering aspect, and her numbers are 100 times off. The USD is actually the preferred laundering vehicle. Then you have the energy agency demanding to know everything the miners are doing, and that information is already mostly available anyway with the electricity grid operators.
Those people who have been around a decade, like John, are true heroes because they kept this whole thing going during the darkest days. Someone needs to buy the crashes and advocate for bitcoin. I think this gets emotionally tiresome, and I've seen many in the community fade off into the sunset. But when you think about it, John has single-handedly kept this crypto forum going. Who is a bigger poster than him answering any question? @Baron needs to make him a mod or something for all the amazing work he has done here. So I think he is allowed to shit on you every now and then.
Plus, when this 100k candle comes, perhaps we will all see that trading bitcoin has been a waste of time, and the buy and hold crowd will be much further ahead. This is honestly my fear. Having $5k cash in my account waiting for another dip, and then missing out on huge profits when the big one comes. Since you didn't want to buy at 73k, you for sure won't want to buy at 100k, waiting for the dip, and then it goes right to 200k, and now you're getting half as many sats.
No trader wants to chase... that is the one sin apparently. But I think bitcoin will re-write this rule, for bitcoin at least.
100%.
I don't mind being called a groupie, but I hope the implication is not that I'm a mindless follower. As johnarb pointed out recently, most of us have done our homework, not the least of which is reading several books on the topic (Broken Money is one of my favorites).
The greed of Wall Street has certainly contributed to the financial mess. More broadly, it's the lack of fiscal discipline by Congress combined with the Fed enabling their lack of discipline by printing money to buy Treasuries. An unsound money system allows this. Under a sound money system, Congress would be forced to raise taxes (or cut elsewhere) to bail out Wall Street. They wouldn't dare because they'd be promptly voted out of office.
I enjoy all your postings and your questions. They are much better than what Frederick Foresight posts because you're looking for legit answers. So I do hope you keep posting.
You are absolutely right that this pullback has been meaningful, but its still tiny in comparison to others from previous bull markets, and not even as large as the drop on March 5, although that one was barely one day. I understand why John worries that you being concerned about the PA might scare people away, but I absolutely agree that you're welcome to post your price predictions. If you're able to trade bitcoin from both sides and do well, then this is clearly all that matters, but the unknown is if you would end up beating just being long this whole time.
I'm not sure if I mentioned this video before, but I think it would be excellent to post it here. Its an in-depth analysis of why holding bitcoin sucks. This guy uses his indicator to show how getting out when the trend is down will save you from the downside. The results clearly outperform just holding bitcoin, even though just holding bitcoin has outperformed almost everything else if going back far enough.
So I guess what I'm saying is that from John's perspective, what most people might do is either not have any exposure because of fear, or they may get out at the worst times and be afraid to get back in, so trading bitcoin won't work out well for most people. But at the same time, there are ways to outperform a "buy and hold" strategy, but very few will be able to do this. Michael Saylor in one video also broke down how missing just a handful of days in all of these cycles will vastly decrease your growth potential.
So I think the evidence is there that trading bitcoin can lead to good returns, but most will fuck it up. This is why I think he wants you to show you're shorting it if you are bearish, because if you're not bearish enough to short, it might just be undue FUD. And if you're not long, you're potentially missing out on that god/omega candle.
There are many others who preach to just accumulate bitcoin no matter the price, and I'm sure that will work out great. Anyway... just saying I enjoy your posts, even if you're not fully orange pilled like the rest of us, and if you stick around and post here, we can one day get the pleasure of saying "we told you so"!
Some interesting data and charts.Article from 2 hours ago:
Glassnode shows that both Bitcoin “whales” (entities holding 1,000 BTC or more) and “sharks” (entities holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC) are fighting to accumulate coins.
Based on flows between whale wallets and exchanges, whales held around 84,000 BTC more than 30 days prior as of March 17.
Bitcoin whale net position change. Source: Glassnode
Sharks, the data for whom is not focused on exchanges, began majorly adding to their exposure at the end of February. As of March 17, their 30-day net position change was 244,000 BTC.
Bitcoin shark net position change. Source: Glassnode
Both classes strongly contrast with Bitcoin “fish” — those with between 10 BTC and 100 BTC. These have seen the distribution of assets throughout this month.
Bitcoin fish net position change. Source: Glassnode
For Bitcoin Munger, the conclusion is clear.
“Smart money is buying, while dumb money sells,” he wrote.
“We are going much higher.”
Glassnode shows that both Bitcoin “whales” (entities holding 1,000 BTC or more) and “sharks” (entities holding between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC) are fighting to accumulate coins.
Based on flows between whale wallets and exchanges, whales held around 84,000 BTC more than 30 days prior as of March 17.
Bitcoin whale net position change. Source: Glassnode
Sharks, the data for whom is not focused on exchanges, began majorly adding to their exposure at the end of February. As of March 17, their 30-day net position change was 244,000 BTC.
Bitcoin shark net position change. Source: Glassnode
Both classes strongly contrast with Bitcoin “fish” — those with between 10 BTC and 100 BTC. These have seen the distribution of assets throughout this month.
Bitcoin fish net position change. Source: Glassnode
For Bitcoin Munger, the conclusion is clear.
“Smart money is buying, while dumb money sells,” he wrote.
“We are going much higher.”
Today's drop was interesting. I was re-checking my bottom-fishing trades just last night, and got a bite today on the CME.
Just a small Ether position, and that's probably how I'll leave it for now. I am no expert/specialist on futures-options, so these are more of what I call 'hobby trades'.
If miners sink even harder soon, I may double-down on BitDeer.
Just a small Ether position, and that's probably how I'll leave it for now. I am no expert/specialist on futures-options, so these are more of what I call 'hobby trades'.
If miners sink even harder soon, I may double-down on BitDeer.
“Bitcoin’s PPT (Plunge Protection Team) strikes again. The BTC price has a hard floor and no top,” Keiser commented.
#Bitcoin’s PPT (Plunge Protection Team) strikes again.
In an earlier tweet today, Keiser again mentioned a “strike” made by Bitcoin PPT, when he retweeted the news about a Japanese government pension investment fund with $1.4 trillion assets under management looking into purchasing Bitcoin as part of its investment strategy.
#Bitcoin’s PPT (Plunge Protection Team) strikes again.
In an earlier tweet today, Keiser again mentioned a “strike” made by Bitcoin PPT, when he retweeted the news about a Japanese government pension investment fund with $1.4 trillion assets under management looking into purchasing Bitcoin as part of its investment strategy.