Is the crypto winter over?

Frederick Foresight said:
So as speculative instruments go, it's fine but disproportionately risky. But I think it is criminally irresponsible to advise people to put all or most of their money into bitcoin as some people here are apt to advise, and to hold for the long term no matter what. When the shit hits the fan, and it will, I hope these people get properly doxxed.
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Bitcoin is not risky, it is the safest asset in the whole world, that has the best liquidity 24/7/365

Name one ET poster other than NoahA that got converted to investing in bitcoin for the long term?

I could not convince anyone in real life for over 10 years. Family, friends, co-workers, acquaintances, college friends...

The truth is that there is a reverse accountability that you will never admit to

Just so you know, YOU are a criminal for mocking, deriding, shaming all of the people who had considered investing in Bitcoin and would have escaped the fiat debt-based monetary system

When bitcoin has surpassed $1M, do you think it is fair that all the people like YOU should be doxxed?

Karma will get YOU, or whatever the universe has to unleash to balance the injustices in this lifetime


https://twitter.com/x/status/1761444540920000703

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764286005522166190

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756805372738732430

https://twitter.com/x/status/1722667446832652490
 
johnarb said:
Name one ET poster other than NoahA that got converted to investing in bitcoin for the long term?
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I can't like your post enough!!! I honestly don't bother with FF anymore... Total waste of time. He will learn about Bitcoin, when the system forces him to.

The crazy thing for me is that everyone can see there is a problem. Maybe inflation hits them hard. Maybe wealth inequality is bitting them in the ass. Maybe they fear government overreach. Maybe they don't have access to healthcare.

Every single problem comes back to how corrupt fiat is. So everyone wants a change, but nobody can see the solution. They expect the government to fix it.... The same government that is stealing their money. I'm not sure how they expect any improvement if we don't seperate money from the government.
 
I've read through Malkiel's book the second time about a year or so ago. No real complaints on it, though not everyone agrees (typical).

Of course, people are going to get hurt. Vol MUST be highest on the best-performing asset... Anyone who takes basic Investing 101 learns this as the first thing. Or else, why would you bother investing in any other asset?

Hello!

Oh wait, we're too busy majoring in Feminist (gender) studies and other wokenomics. Pronouns take priority over common sense nowadays.
 
The_Krakenite said:
I've read through Malkiel's book the second time about a year or so ago. No real complaints on it, though not everyone agrees (typical).

Of course, people are going to get hurt. Vol MUST be highest on the best-performing asset... Anyone who takes basic Investing 101 learns this as the first thing. Or else, why would you bother investing in any other asset?

Hello!

Oh wait, we're too busy majoring in Feminist (gender) studies and other wokenomics. Pronouns take priority over common sense nowadays.
More...

FOMOing in to ANY investment at a high will mean short term to mid term,possibly long term pain.
 
johnarb said:
Bitcoin is not risky, it is the safest asset in the whole world, that has the best liquidity 24/7/365

Name one ET poster other than NoahA that got converted to investing in bitcoin for the long term?

I could not convince anyone in real life for over 10 years. Family, friends, co-workers, acquaintances, college friends...

The truth is that there is a reverse accountability that you will never admit to

Just so you know, YOU are a criminal for mocking, deriding, shaming all of the people who had considered investing in Bitcoin and would have escaped the fiat debt-based monetary system

When bitcoin has surpassed $1M, do you think it is fair that all the people like YOU should be doxxed?


Karma will get YOU, or whatever the universe has to unleash to balance the injustices in this lifetime


https://twitter.com/x/status/1761444540920000703

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764286005522166190

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756805372738732430

https://twitter.com/x/status/1722667446832652490
More...

Frederick Foresight said:
I didn't read his book, but I don't think he is to be dismissed out of hand given his credentials and his real world experience over a period of decades. My understanding is that his most widely-recognized book refers to the majority of investors.

As for the other markets you refer to in your post, they are real markets rather than the illusory bullshit that is Bitcoin. There is no denying that it is the speculative instrument of the day, and that real money can be made with it. But you can do so with other markets and with better liquidity and less "whale" manipulation. And with less risk of it folding into itself at some moment in time, whenever that may be.

So as speculative instruments go, it's fine but disproportionately risky. But I think it is criminally irresponsible to advise people to put all or most of their money into crypto as some people here are apt to advise, and to hold for the long term no matter what. When the shit hits the fan, and it will, I hope these people get properly doxxed.
More...

I get not understanding this trade/investment idea.

I get that horrible feeling of 'Im wrong and I should have put x amount in 5 years ago'.

However,hoping that someone who was vocal about their trade and correct in that trade comes to an ugly fate is next level.

No one was pushed into doing anything and if anyone was convinced,by what was offered,then its been GREAT advice and they are welcome to now cash in.

Please walk it back.It was a silly statement.
 
I don't know exactly what Bitcoin is, I mean it seems to be a version of digital money. Studying economic history suggests it is not a bubble because the hallmark of a bubble is it has one parabolic move and never comes back.

Examples being the Dutch Tulips with non-homogeneous colors, RCA in the late 1920s, Commerce One (and a host of other companies that don't exist anymore) in 2000 and of course all the covid vaccine makers in 2020. I mean MRNA might survive most of its competitors are on the verge of bankruptcy. Peloton is a company similar to RCA where they benefited from the bubble but will never come back.

The thing about Bitcoin is that it seems to have a lingering reputation for fraud at least by the traditional finance media. There was the Mt. Gox incident, ICOs, FTX, Do Kwan, etc. I think these things are what happens in an unregulated market and not necessarily what Bitcoin enabled or caused. It is very similar to the shenanigans of the 1920s bull market which were corrected by FDR's government in 1933.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
I didn't read his book, but I don't think he is to be dismissed out of hand given his credentials and his real world experience over a period of decades. My understanding is that his most widely-recognized book refers to the majority of investors.

As for the other markets you refer to in your post, they are real markets rather than the illusory bullshit that is Bitcoin. There is no denying that it is the speculative instrument of the day, and that real money can be made with it. But you can do so with other markets and with better liquidity and less "whale" manipulation. And with less risk of it folding into itself at some moment in time, whenever that may be.

So as speculative instruments go, it's fine but disproportionately risky. But I think it is criminally irresponsible to advise people to put all or most of their money into crypto as some people here are apt to advise, and to hold for the long term no matter what. When the shit hits the fan, and it will, I hope these people get properly doxxed.
More...
It's incredibly ironic that someone with 22 thousands posts on ET would value the opinion of Malkiel, whose reputation is inextricably tied to the idea that it is impossible to beat the market in the long run after controlling for risk.
 
I can only speak as a short-term trader. I live and die by these two principles:

1) Don't ever get married to your position.

2) Stay with the trade when it's going up and exit when it's going down.

This way, I never end up losing the entire farm. Even if I had gotten in at THE VERY TOP, I still would lose only a modest amount, which I will likely recoup. Why make things more messy when it's already complicated?
 
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