Is the crypto winter over?

schizo said:
I dunno what to say. Throughout my 30+ years of trading, I've heard "THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT, DAMN IT!!" on soooooo many occasions. :)

But I really don't mind if it jumps up to $1 million (or more as I've been hearing of late). You know I'll be there with ya.
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I totally agree. But I think it's different simply because of the combo of Debt to GDP... Interest rates... And deficits. We have never had this combo before. During the Volker era, I think debt to GDP was 30%.

Every podcast I watch is calling for massive printing before the eventual collapse. 3 years ago, I didn't own any Bitcoin and hence didn't participate in the last pump. I imagine this time around, there will be more people scooping up bitcoins.
 
schizo said:
BTW what exactly would happen once all the BTC, down to the last satoshi, have been minted? I'm asking because currently BTC doesn't have whole lot of practical use other than as an investment. Only a very small fraction of what's in circulation is being used for goods and services. Plus BTC has plenty of competitors like cash and credit cards. So I don't really understand why the demand for BTC (especially from the ordinary folks) would suddenly spike just because it will no longer be mined.
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The last btc will be mined 100 years from now in 2140. When you say investment, let's change it to Store of Value

Bitcoin is the hardest, best money in the history of the world

Money is unit of account, medium of exchange, store of value

It's the 2nd one that comes to your mind when you think of money, but it's the 3rd one that is the most important

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Let's give an example of someone who buys $1M worth of Amazon, what can he do with them? no dividend, but he can use it as collateral to borrow against, right? A good store of value asset is also a good collateral asset

You heard of China and other countries buying hundreds of billions of $ worth of physical gold but what do they do with them? They store them in warehouses, and they have to spend a lot in security, seems like a waste

Many things around you are store of value. You just do not think of them as such. You do not consider them as money

I have a question for you, where do you have most of your life savings "invested" (the question is where do you store your life savings value)?

If you say your house, you're like most people, they treat their home/residence as their store of value

Your house is money, but it's extremely illiquid (30-60 days standard escrow), But you can use it as collateral, right? A good store of value is a good collateral asset

except when banks are tight with credit, not issuing helocs, or refinance, tough, just get a personal loan or borrow from CC's, oh, banks are tight also with any credit, bummer

So, where do you have your life savings "invested" in?

Normies will says in the stock market or real estate or bonds... Want to hear which one you picked. Maybe Cash?

There are $900 Trillion worth of assets in the world, store of value, 5% of that goes to bitcoin and it will be worth millions per btc

Prolly nothing


[PS: I'll tell you that bitcoin is being used as a settlement network in cross border value transfer, and as a replacement for bank accounts that cannot be frozen or seized and other things but it'll just be a waste of time]
 
johnarb said:
[PS: I'll tell you that bitcoin is being used as a settlement network in cross border value transfer, and as a replacement for bank accounts that cannot be frozen or seized and other things but it'll just be a waste of time]
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Yeah, prolly nothing. Thanks for the explanation though.
 
schizo said:
Yeah, prolly nothing. Thanks for the explanation though.
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No worries

Notice how you did not say where you store your life savings

Most people are scared or embarrassed to admit where they store their life savings, but it's not like a big secret, since most people put it in stocks (index funds) and/or real estate

I have no qualms saying most of our life savings are stored in bitcoin

People of hnw, have professional wealth managers, which allocate among a diverse set of assets across many jurisdictions (global)

But average people of net worth less than 8 figures have it in real estate and stocks, maybe some precious metals, maybe some art/collectibles, maybe some cars

Money is broken

Whatever group you fall into, there are counterparty risks or systemic risks, plus holding costs

I choose bitcoin
 
schizo said:
BTW what exactly would happen once all the BTC, down to the last satoshi, have been minted? I'm asking because currently BTC doesn't have whole lot of practical use other than as an investment. Only a very small fraction of what's in circulation is being used for goods and services. Plus BTC has plenty of competitors like cash and credit cards. So I don't really understand why the demand for BTC (especially from the ordinary folks) would suddenly spike just because it will no longer be mined.
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John had some great answers, but I would also like to add a couple of things.

Its interesting that you feel this way because I honestly cannot imagine what else I would own to store my (very little) wealth. Cash is of course totally dumb, but earning 5% right now is maybe not so bad. Most have their wealth in a house, but we are at a peak, and even if they wanted to cash out, they still need to live somewhere, so I think they will be forced to ride it down and lose half of their wealth. (maybe just in purchasing power as inflation really hits) In the stock market, its really only the magnificent 7 that have done anything this year, and even those are a huge gamble.

So for me, the best thing with the most asymmetrical payout really is bitcoin. Everyone is expecting the massive printing just around the corner, and although I doubt we will see too many 100x coins this time around (ie. Solana doing 100x in just a couple of years), a 10x is pretty much guaranteed for some coins. I just don't see anything like Tesla or Google being able to do this. And with bitcoin, not only do I see it being able to far surpass the equity market, I also see it as having much less downside risk if you're gonna be a long term holder.

Lastly, in the end, the world is gonna be deflationary in some ways. I watched a really great episode of "What Bitcoin Did" tonight, and it was mostly about AI and robotics. If we are to believe these guys, we only have 1-3 years because a major explosion of the capability of these systems. They talked about the Tesla robot and its ability to one day even build the cars (but I don't believe anything coming out of Elon too much these days), but even Jeff Booth talked about an incredible robot as well that is almost ready which will cost $20k and soon be able to work for the equivalent of $5 per hour. The guests even laughed at the idea of anyone learning to code these days.

So going along with Jeff's thesis about technology making the world deflationary, the money will one day have to follow this same trajectory. Fiat currency cannot work in this way. It has to be inflationary or else it can't function. So going forward, we will have the mother of all pumps, and when it all crashes, a new system will have to take over.
 
johnarb said:
When you say investment, let's change it to Store of Value

Bitcoin is the hardest, best money in the history of the world
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It doesn't matter how productive robots could become. How much a boost in GDP they may do, etc. The 1% will harness that, and you will still be stuck in the same lowering of standards since the US defaulted on its gold obligations.
 
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