Is the crypto winter over?

[themickey]

It appears bitcoin is stepping to the very edge of the abyss, it can't go down much more from ~25,600 level.
At a stretch it could go to ~24,800 but that would imo be crazy extreme.
I have it most likely trading flat from here and bouncing up hard Monday.
If it doesn't do, then it's buggered for a while imo.
Watching intently how this plays out.

 

[The_Krakenite]

It appears bitcoin is stepping to the very edge of the abyss,

I've never been any sort of GOLD BUG, and as much as I'm not too crazy of being a BTC BUG either, this week I have realized there is another HUGE moat when it comes to BTC. Basically Gensler seems to be pro BTC in many ways, even though most Americans are acting terrified over the SEC right now. On multiple occasions Gensler has left it in untouchable-status. Agrees it is not a security, and is not targeting BTC.

In any case, I doubled down on Cardano last night after watching the sell off. I have no interest in loading up on more Sol though. I already bought it as a JOKE near the bottom during the FTX implosion.

 

[johnarb]

It appears bitcoin is stepping to the very edge of the abyss, it can't go down much more from ~25,600 level.
At a stretch it could go to ~24,800 but that would imo be crazy extreme.
I have it most likely trading flat from here and bouncing up hard Monday.
If it doesn't do, then it's buggered for a while imo.
Watching intently how this plays out.

Eth also held up pretty well. I saw on a YouTube video (CryptosRus) that there's Wykoff accumulation pattern on the btc chart

 

[NoahA]

not altszn.... alts dumping like crazy, I haven't seen a good explanation yet, some mentioning Robinhood, but I think based on the alts affected it could be more like a Binance (dot com) event

I saw some posts of whales moving SOL and other coins into binance and coinbase for selling. So that was certainly lots of sell pressure. But I do think it all stems from the Robinhood delisting.

I look at it like a business. Even if you have the best product but for some reason you can't reach your customers, then you're not gonna be able to sell it. Coins that don't have access to the biggest market can't really grow unless big money comes in. That big money to me is the US market.

 

[johnarb]

I saw some posts of whales moving SOL and other coins into binance and coinbase for selling. So that was certainly lots of sell pressure. But I do think it all stems from the Robinhood delisting.

I look at it like a business. Even if you have the best product but for some reason you can't reach your customers, then you're not gonna be able to sell it. Coins that don't have access to the biggest market can't really grow unless big money comes in. That big money to me is the US market.

I think I finally have a good idea of what's going on. SEC 5D chess move. Brilliant, but evil

SEC has basically banned cryptos in the US

This explains why Btc and Eth that are considered commodities are the least affected by the selloff

SEC has sued Coinbase and Binance US claiming they are selling a bunch of unregulated securities without going after those crypto projects. That requires resources and time (Ripple case is over 5 years already), plus offshore entities or possibly no entity (decentralized)

By announcing cryptos as unregulated securities, it forces US companies like Robinhood, to delist them. The crypto assets that are not on the list will always have an overhang of being announced by the SEC as unregulated securities in the future, so no crypto is safe

So what happened last night? The rumor is that a US-based crypto fund or funds started selling off all their crypto assets and will close shop and return the money to the investors. They were probably market making to stabilize these crypto markets on exchanges and they also shutdown those MM operations

I'm sure those funds also own Btc and Eth, but those have natural buyers, hence the smaller % price selloffs

SEC, without having to sue the crypto assets projects but merely declaring them as unregistered securities, have caused an effective ban on all US entities in getting involved with them and any US-based company involved with cryptos will be scared off

Similar tactic with Operation Chokepoint 2.0 with the banks, not making it illegal for them to transact with crypto firms, but making it seem like it will be very high risk

Second and third order effects of declaring crypto assets as unregulated securities without having to prove in the courts

These will be short term pain. I've said on a number of posts, we need to get the US out of Bitcoin and cryptos. In the long term this will be good, in my humble opinion

US is the land of the free and home of the brave

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667488291216584705

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667563864115003392

 

[The_Krakenite]

It is said, that every nation gets the leader(s) it deserves. So... don't get upset

Really, the blue-chips spilt a little blood is all. For those who bought the shitcoins, this is what happens (and much worse). So there is no point crying.

On the flip side, if you are outside of the US, you are getting a bargain at their expense. Be happy when Gensler gives you these gifts.

 

[themickey]

I saw on a YouTube video (CryptosRus) that there's Wykoff accumulation pattern on the btc cha

A very good description indeed.

Wyckoff Rules
These rules are derived from Wyckoff’s studies and experience charting the stock market.

Rule 1: The market and individual securities never behave in the same way twice.1 Rather, trends unfold through a broad array of similar price patterns that show infinite variations in size, detail, and extension. Each incarnation changes just enough from prior patterns to surprise and confuse market participants. Many modern traders might call this a shapeshifting phenomenon that always stays one step ahead of profit-seeking.

Rule 2: The significance of price movements reveals itself only when compared to past price behavior.1 In other words, context is everything in the financial markets. The best way to evaluate today’s price action is to compare it to what happened yesterday, last week, last month, and last year.

A corollary to this rule states that analyzing a single day’s price action in a vacuum will elicit incorrect conclusions.

 

[NoahA]

I think I finally have a good idea of what's going on. SEC 5D chess move. Brilliant, but evil

SEC has basically banned cryptos in the US

This explains why Btc and Eth that are considered commodities are the least affected by the selloff

SEC has sued Coinbase and Binance US claiming they are selling a bunch of unregulated securities without going after those crypto projects. That requires resources and time (Ripple case is over 5 years already), plus offshore entities or possibly no entity (decentralized)

By announcing cryptos as unregulated securities, it forces US companies like Robinhood, to delist them. The crypto assets that are not on the list will always have an overhang of being announced by the SEC as unregulated securities in the future, so no crypto is safe

So what happened last night? The rumor is that a US-based crypto fund or funds started selling off all their crypto assets and will close shop and return the money to the investors. They were probably market making to stabilize these crypto markets on exchanges and they also shutdown those MM operations

I'm sure those funds also own Btc and Eth, but those have natural buyers, hence the smaller % price selloffs

SEC, without having to sue the crypto assets projects but merely declaring them as unregistered securities, have caused an effective ban on all US entities in getting involved with them and any US-based company involved with cryptos will be scared off

Similar tactic with Operation Chokepoint 2.0 with the banks, not making it illegal for them to transact with crypto firms, but making it seem like it will be very high risk

Second and third order effects of declaring crypto assets as unregulated securities without having to prove in the courts

These will be short term pain. I've said on a number of posts, we need to get the US out of Bitcoin and cryptos. In the long term this will be good, in my humble opinion

US is the land of the free and home of the brave

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667488291216584705

https://twitter.com/x/status/1667563864115003392

I think you are absolutely right. But I do also think that they would like to take down Bitcoin as well. You cannot have an exit available when the general public realizes what's happening with Fiat. The growing consensus seems to be that printing will come back in an even bigger way. So I think they need to close down as many potential exits as possible before the money printer is turned back on.

 

[themickey]

These are my thoughts:
Firstly my call; 'for a very large immenent move', appears even to myself to be outlandish, whacko, in otherwords, I really don't think it's even possible myself, however, I designed an algo which is crazy complicated and weird which is a relatively new invention which I don't fully understand myself just yet, however it appears very reliable and it also relates to Bitcoin behaviour.
The second point; my limited past observation of bitcoin, on weekends it usually does nothing radical.
This time may be slightly different and my hunch is USA time late Sunday night it will possibly react when you guys are sleeping.
This is Australia business hours, but Monday is an ASX holiday, Kings Birthday.

 

[johnarb]

You cannot have an exit available when the general public realizes what's happening with Fiat

Yes, I think the ones in charge were scared of how bitcoin reacted to the bank failures. It was adding to the bank problems of deposits leaving the banks and into money markets/bonds, and alternative assets like bitcoin and cryptos

The growing consensus seems to be that printing will come back in an even bigger way. So I think they need to close down as many potential exits as possible before the money printer is turned back on.

Yes, very excited for when they turn the money printer on full settings. Liquidity will make it to the bitcoin and crypto assets, I do not have any doubts

It may hurt the average US investor, but the ones on the left and right side of the curve will benefit