Is The Bottom IN?

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

Michael Pento (private money manager and economist) argues "no"... November 6, 2020
TMC-to-GDP Pento.PNG


It has been my argument that we have yet to see the real bear. (There hasn't been a big enough decline and investors have not yet suffered "bear market psycho".) The above explains it in "valuation/GDP" terms. IOW.. the market is still quite expensive historically.

Patience, Grasshoppers!

FWIW.....
 
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It's fascinating to watch how people obsess with calling a bottom and keep looking for an end of year rally while the market is offering an abundance of huge moves up and down on a weekly and even daily basis in the meanwhile. That's where the focus should be. Not trying to capture a very uncertain rally which may not materialize this year.

My simple view is that this is not a time to have strong conviction for any extended length of time in either direction. That's certainly been the answer so far this year.

Seasonality is strong for this part of the year for bull markets, but not for bear markets. Not a bad idea to stay flexible and loose right now.
 
Huh?

Newbies talk about the BOTTOM being in / out / over.

Oldies also talk about the BOTTOM being in / out / over.

There are probably a thousand threads about TOPs and BOTTOMs.


Anyway, day traders don't bother about all these.
We trade every day in whatever market condition.
 
Scataphagos said:
Michael Pento (private money manager and economist) argues "no"... November 6, 2020View attachment 298967

It has been my argument that we have yet to see the real bear. (There hasn't been a big enough decline and investors have not yet suffered "bear market psycho".) The above explains it in "valuation/GDP" terms. IOW.. the market is still quite expensive historically.

Patience, Grasshoppers!

FWIW.....
More...

I agree market cap is high and this is a weird monetary era, BUT that doesn't mean it has to regress to the mean right now or even in the next 2 years. The analysis is true but what if this is just a temporary correction? latest GDP has us not even in recession anymore
 
NCC1701 said:
I agree market cap is high and this is a weird monetary era, BUT that doesn't mean it has to regress to the mean right now or even in the next 2 years. The analysis is true but what if this is just a temporary correction? latest GDP has us not even in recession anymore
More...

Investors can argue any position they like. I mentioned Pento's work as I've know of it for several years. (For they last year he has advised investors be long the $USD, short equities, long T-Bills/cash equivalents.) And with P/Es still high plus earnings adjustments downward likely coming... I can't see the "bottom" any time soon.

And yes, some argue the decline so far has just been a "temporary correction"... a Wave 4 in Elliot Wave Terms. If that's the case, the market will likely make ATH before the real bear market starts.
 
maxinger said:
Huh?

Newbies talk about the BOTTOM being in / out / over.

Oldies also talk about the BOTTOM being in / out / over.

There are probably a thousand threads about TOPs and BOTTOMs.


Anyway, day traders don't bother about all these.
We trade every day in whatever market condition.
More...

yeah, and I saw a guy nail the 2009 low and still lost money
 
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