Is the Bear market that began January 2022 over?

Is the Bear market that began January 2022 over?

  • Yes

    Votes: 12 23.5%

  • No

    Votes: 29 56.9%

  • Don't know

    Votes: 11 21.6%
  • Total voters
    51
  • Poll closed .
see post #140 above for context then note the following .............


the bear market rally in the Transports started from 6/17 in a standard pattern called A-B-C. The B low is 7/14. Then the C-wave up began. This C-wave up has arrived into a zone of super heavy resistance. The 200-day ema is formidable, then there are also those grey and red dashed lines which are formidable resistances. This is why it would not surprise me if we get a failed 5th sub-wave.

But if Transports do manage to go higher and generate a complete 5 sub waves it will not change the notion that its a bear market rally.
 
Vix

Wedge and RSI higher high and higher low could be telling us to prepare for rocket launch soon


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margin_gamble said:
Vix

Wedge and RSI higher high and higher low could be telling us to prepare for rocket launch soon


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More...

On this I will agree with you. That is a scary-looking VIX pattern. Stair-stepping down. No sir, I don't like it! But that does not mean 2008 lows in the Dow.
 
Overnight said:
On this I will agree with you. That is a scary-looking VIX pattern. Stair-stepping down. No sir, I don't like it! But that does not mean 2008 lows in the Dow.
More...


Take it a bit further. Notice how so many of the downdrafts in Vix daily resemble wedges. In future just draw the wedge as soon as you can and save loads of useless work trying to figure out Vix. Just cognited on this feature yesterday so its brand new
 
Overnight said:
On this I will agree with you. That is a scary-looking VIX pattern. Stair-stepping down. No sir, I don't like it! But that does not mean 2008 lows in the Dow.
More...


For the 2008 lows in dow Jones ........... pull up a Vix monthly chart with full data from 1987. Make sure you have the 1987 top of 172.79

Now draw your Fibonacci grid and observe the following

Triple bottom with neckline at Fibonacci 23.6%.

Take out the 23.6% level and its going to get downright mean like it did in the corona spike wave in 2020



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Fun, fun facts with yours truly's use of the golden ratio Series .............

+/- 1 to 3 for margin of error



0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 ............ and so to infinity


(0) Great Depression crash = 34 months

(1) DJI from Great Depression Low in 1932 to current top = 89 years (can you dig it?)

(2) DJI drop in 1st leg down = 13 days .... cumulative to 2nd leg down ends 34 days

(3) DJI from Jan top to current top of bear rally = 144 days

(4) Time series from Jan 2022 top gives end of bear rally on August 2nd. Fasten seatbelts

(5) DJI bull run from 2009 to Jan 2022 = 13 years
 
Fun, fun facts with yours truly's use of the golden ratio Series .............

For the geniuses and gurus worldwide, they all seem to have forgotten one key, super important piece of data. They do know what that piece of data is called. Its called CAPITULATION

These gurus know that a BEAR cannot end without capitulation. Hey, don't blame me, this is what THEY themselves say. Why should I argue with 'em.

So how and why are they or can they call the BEAR over based on Capitulation? Where the heck was the Capitulation?

Jesus H Christ, they can't even define Capitulation technically so they come up with willy nilly definitions

The correct definition , technical definition for capitulation in a BEAR is:

a day in which declines outpace advances by a ratio of 9:1 and the TRIN closes above 3


We have not had a single day, not even 1 single day of panic!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lambs to the slaughter :)
 
Revisit thread title, then keeping the concept of CAPITULATION in mind have a look how my WAVE application nails it every damn time, going all the way back to the Great Depression drop. I can nail every mother's son Bear Market with the tools I already have - I do not need any fancy schmancy additional tools.

First things first: We need better conceptual understanding of Capitulation. Nobody, I mean nobody has defined it to the extent that it can be numbered. Without numbers you got zip!

Easiest and most proficient underlying concept within Capitulation is "the darkest hour is just before dawn" = T E R R O R so intense that the feeling of Death would be the only road out, thoughts of suicide & worthlessness and pointlessness of it all are an inherent part of this concept

Yeah baby! Deeg eet Mahn, let's have some Rum. I believe I have nailed this friggin mystery that has plagued Jack Schannep, the leading Technical Analyst of the Dow Theory.


Wave 3 of the sequence within a 5 wave move nails the DARKEST HOUR like a goddamn champ. Nails it to the cross! Then what happens thereafter is there is a 4th wave recovery during which the depression eases and feelings of warm relief engulf the poor fellow and then all of a sudden the 5th and final wave of T E R R O R fires off to complete the entire sequence. But the fellow undergoing this travail in his mind notices that the power of attack has diminished. And so it has to be because in a 5th wave, a terminal wave, the power pales in comparison to that of wave 3.

Boom!!!! You get a failed 5th wave on the chart.

Go and apply this concept to the Crash of 2008 using Vix weekly. Ditto for the Great Depression

Now I shall try to apply it to the current thread title Bear market rally or bull market.

Fingers crossed as we test this zibilidengo discovery. Happened at 4 AM whilst in deeeeeeeeeeeeeep sleep and fell off the bed. :D


Its all new. Even Prechter would never dream of a discovery of this magnitude but he can have it from me for free. I don't charge. God pays me well, except in the recent QQQ trade I was paid by the Devil hisssself.:)
 
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