Is the Bear market that began January 2022 over?

Is the Bear market that began January 2022 over?

  • Yes

    Votes: 12 23.5%

  • No

    Votes: 29 56.9%

  • Don't know

    Votes: 11 21.6%
  • Total voters
    51
  • Poll closed .
It seems unlikely that the bear market is over fundamentally but if the Fed is done with the 75 bps rate hikes, then it probably is over. If CPI is still high and the Fed stops raising rates they will look even more foolish than they look now.

I put the odds of a hot CPI print yet again which means the permabulls will have egg on their face yet again.

A weekly close above $350 on the QQQ means the bear market is over.
 
Fiscal spending will support the market, inflation adds to corporate revenues.
Recession layoffs won't hit until next year, then the Fed cuts rates.
Powell protects the market, notice he's very slow with quantitative tightening.
 
here's a quick graph I put together. The Schiller PE right now is still way above normal => current bear might just be getting started.
upload_2022-8-4_9-29-34.png
 
SunTrader said:
IMO your wave 1 is wave (3) and wave 2 is wave (4) with wave (5) soon, as part of a greater Wave A of ABC.

Meanwhile Taiwan is a nothingburger.
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That would work too and is a valid alternate count. different strokes for ..............

However if your wave count is the one the market chooses, your 5th wave by definition has to be the E X T E N D E D Wave. Why because in every sequence there has to be an extended wave, usually wave 3 but if not, then its Wave 5. One other exception is when Wave 1 itself is an extended wave in the form of a Leading diagonal

Regardless as said , end result will not differ by much.

All valid
 
Scataphagos said:
If the low IS in, we never had a bear market at all... just a correction in the bull move since the Covid low.
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Even if the low is IN, we still had a bear market because the SPX hit 20% by the boss' definition. Who is the boss? CNBC :):D

And then there is Dow Theory, the oldest and best market timing method on the books that has stood the test of time. BEAR Market signal issued loud and clear as per DJI, DJT, NYA, IXIC, SPX

And note that NO Bull market signal has been issued since.

If it does occur the new bull will require a solid drop from current prices down to a hefty retraacement of the current alleged bear rally and then reverse and takeout the top of the rally. That will call a new bull market.

Until then, its BEAR, BEAR with the current rally just candy to draw the dummies back in
 
margin_gamble said:
That would work too and is a valid alternate count. different strokes for ..............

However if your wave count is the one the market chooses, your 5th wave by definition has to be the E X T E N D E D Wave. Why because in every sequence there has to be an extended wave, usually wave 3 but if not, then its Wave 5. One other exception is when Wave 1 itself is an extended wave in the form of a Leading diagonal

Regardless as said , end result will not differ by much.

All valid
More...
Posted this last night ($SPX weekly) on another topic:
! SPX weekly EW Wave# 4.png
 
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