
Real war takes a long time. So your analogy might be accurate

We'll find out soon enough. China cannot afford to lose this much face. XI will look like a dumbass if he does nothing
IMO your wave 1 is wave (3) and wave 2 is wave (4) with wave (5) soon, as part of a greater Wave A of ABC.My vote is 100% NO.
The BEAR will resume soon within day or days and will retrace the entire current bear rally within a few days and take out the June 16 low and continue south.
I have no reservations about this.
Wave 3, the most devastating wave, begins in a day or days from now. Today is Wednesday August 3, 2022
Dow Jones daily chart
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Meanwhile Taiwan is a nothingburger.
I get the feeling that after such a powerful rally the vast majority or perhaps even 99.9% of ET say the BEAR is over. Please vote