Is the Bear market that began January 2022 over?

Is the Bear market that began January 2022 over?

  • Yes

    Votes: 12 23.5%

  • No

    Votes: 29 56.9%

  • Don't know

    Votes: 11 21.6%
  • Total voters
    51
  • Poll closed .
Thread title bear rally continues to be my choice at 100% conviction. Zero wavering.

Wall Street's new laws are being hammered by yours truly left right and center

Latest one is that if a bear rally exceeds 50% retracement it confirms the bear rally is null and void and instead, a new bull market is aborning and in effect.

buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllsh*t! says yours truly

Great Depression BEAR RALLY took out more than 50%. Then went on to nail 90% approx.








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margin_gamble said:
Thread title chart for Monday onwards (Aug 15, 2022)




View attachment 292025
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We're ABOVE those moving averages in your daily charts and MACD just crossed up on the weekly = up up up....

Secondly the public is ALWAYS wrong and since more people think the bottom is NOT in the poll = 100% it is bottom secured... 1000% up room to go with ZERO risk free money for all longs
 
EqtTrdr said:
We're ABOVE those moving averages in your daily charts and MACD just crossed up on the weekly = up up up....

Secondly the public is ALWAYS wrong and since more people think the bottom is NOT in the poll = 100% it is bottom secured... 1000% up room to go with ZERO risk free money for all longs
More...





The Poll in the thread is very low sampling. Very low. If it was a massive sampling and if we then had a vast majority leaning to one side, then it could be used as a contrary indicator.

But this is not how I am using the ET Poll in this thread. My usage is I just wanted to see if there were even a few who still had some kahunas and could hold their position and conviction.

That there are 27 brave souls who voted NO has made me a happy camper.

-----------------------------

In the real world of traders and investors I have not yet seen the DSI sentiment measures so cannot use this gauge just yet. Waiting for the numbers to come in. However what I do have is THE VIX and that is screaming, screaming, screaming .......... and bellowing thru' a megaphone .............


C O M P L A C E N C Y = on this alone my call would bear rally


 
EqtTrdr said:
We're ABOVE those moving averages in your daily charts and MACD just crossed up on the weekly = up up up....

Secondly the public is ALWAYS wrong and since more people think the bottom is NOT in the poll = 100% it is bottom secured... 1000% up room to go with ZERO risk free money for all longs
More...


Your mention of moving averages et al ................. in a Wave 2 rally these indicators fly off the handle. Its their expected behavior and very much required in order to draw the masses od herbivores back into the river where the hungry crocs await. Without a grand return of the grass eaters there is no killing job worth a sh*t left for Wave 3 to do. It requires moving averages to scream, "bull run" so the masses will see and charge in with their life savings
 
unconventional wisdom said:
the bear market was news-driven. what news is going to drive this market lower "to Argentina"?
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Wrong! News does not drive Prices. Never did, never will. You have it ass backwards.

Here's how it works .................


PRICE is the source. PRICE generates the NEWS. CNBC, CNN, BBC, MSNBC and company report on stuff that Price had already foretold on the price chart for those who can read a chart. That they cannot read does not change the fact that it was already foretold.

CNBC and company are always late, late late to the party.

The one exception I have seen and its hardly an exception, more an area that ready more understanding is that Wave 3 is often signaled by an OUTSIDE trigger event. For example, in this case, the outside trigger event could very well be China launching the actual attack on Taiwan, or Russia firing a defo nuclear strike etc., ................ its something I am still working on, no defo answer yet.

bottomline: everything comes from PRICE .......... that's why the cognoscenti say, "Price action is key"
 
unconventional wisdom said:
the bear market was news-driven. what news is going to drive this market lower "to Argentina"?
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Answered from one point of view already ............ see previous post.

Now I will answer you from the NEWS driven point of view for the journey south to Argentina ....

let's assume I am right, a trigger has fired and the Dow JOnes starts diving south. As the June 16 low is approached, its still Price who is giving out all the signals and News, but during such rapid massively powered moves, the News Media gets wound tightly and extrapolates the FEAR aka TERROR

This feeds on itself and is the fuel personified and exponentialized for the trip to Argentina.

They say this about Wave 3:

This type of wave is a wonder to behold as its packed to the hilt with reams and reams of stunning firepower that BEAR will not hold any back but will turn on the spigot to full tilt as the middle portion of the wave gets underway, this portion being called the

RECOGNITION PHASE

a phase during which the public clutches their private parts in terror as there is no escape and it begins to dawn on them, "we are in deep sh*t and there is no way to escape this type of devastation"

ALL DIP BUYERS by this time are paralyzed.

ALL the ching ching ka-ching clowns in the "defy SPX to reverse" thread will be dead and gone.

During the very first part of this upcomg downdraft I think it might be a good idea to go up to Rickshaw Man and give him some nice gifts and presents for you will never see him again. He will never return. Ever! The ching ching ka-ching sound will cease forever!


Get your affairs in order fast, the tsunami is almost at our doorstep. Start in one day, 2 days, 3 days, what's the difference? It will be HELL!

I pray for all of you. And for me.
 
BEAR markets are a time of great reward for the likes of yours truly, Robert Kiyosaki, Harry Dent and other like minded individuals ......................

if we take out the Covid factor we can literally be anywhere in the world and have entire hotels to ourselves as travel will have dried up with people in terror. Beaches will belong to us. This is the time period when yours truly travels like a king. I dislike crowds and rather prefer to have miles of beach to myself and my girls who travel with me.


My job during the BEAR will be to just move the STOP down - but to still keep it far from current action and where nobody can ever find it. Then move it down lower and so n until finally its cott

I figure 6 years minimum of Great Depression which for me will be GREAT HOLIDAY Ditto for Robert Kiyosake and gang.

Then at teh bottom of the BEAR scoop up real estate at 5 cents on the dollar and give it to your family to hold for 100 years.
 
During Wave 3 down expect Violence, already up 300% to skyrocket to over 10,000%.

No watches, no jewelry no outward signs of wealth should be flaunted.

The art of being Mr. Nobody and Mr. Nothinness will save your ass
 
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