Is The Bear Back?

T

tradingjournals

1. How deep would a down move be, assuming we are at a top ( ~ 112 QQQ, ~ 215 SPY)?

2. Which bond mutual funds have the longest maturity dates and lowest expenses?
 
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You never know with this god awful market but since we're throwing predictions out there I'll go with 2080 in ES maybe by next week. QQQ I have a few 107-108 puts and some 110 weeklies.

But that could all be turned on its head and it goes to 2200.
 
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I would say 30% over 12 mos then it reverses. Everybody is expecting another 50%er over 18mos. People will be dumping hard and too scared to buy.

As for bond mutual funds, Vanguard Extended Duration seems like the most aggressive long play. I am not sure if it will be a text book play. We are going into an unprecedented era. Kondratieff stuff.

This thinking makes you under allocate. What we should be waiting for is an exhaustion move. We are lacking a gogo sector in that regard. In fact, the first rate cut might produce a fake out since the Fed is already hinting of the "slowest tightening" ever.
 
The "slowest tightening ever" followed by the fastest "welp, back to zero guys!" move once it comes to light that a: unemployment is a larger issue than reported, b: wages are crap, c: economically we're not as in good shape as thought.

I don't feel bad about being hugely in cash right now honestly. I've even reallocated 401k stuff around to more conservative holdings and I f I have to give up a *potential* 5-10% gain to avoid being a bag holding sucker ala 2000/2008, I'm content to do that. It's not like the broad market has been posting significant overall gains this year anyway.
 
True. Looking at the last 2 bears. I probably wouldn't call a new bull until a 30% rally from the bottom during 2008. I was incommunicado at the time. ( Not at a mental hospital or prison) At that point, you would still be inundiated with negative press from all sources.

This time I may just lock myself up and trade from the charts with minimal leverage. Depends on what kind of hit I take initially. I could be punch drunk, scared shtless or pyramiding like a mad man.
 
I've been really debating on adjusting my 401k allocations also. Its a pretty aggressive portfolio. I will probably reduce risk a little. If the market drops I'll probably increase my contribution some also.
 
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