Is the analysing technology sorcery

Quote from cf0532:

hello, Hook N. Sinker, Welcome to my post.
In China, I see most investers -maybe some of them should be traders, but not easy to distingish investers or traders - do their business basing on fundamentals. At least, the mainstream, especially the famous economists, deems that the fundamentals analysis is feasible for only one method. And thinks the technical analysis is not important, even just sorcery. Of course, this opinion doesn't exist only in China. Such as Warren Buffentt, he alse said that he never saw some people gained much money by drawing charts. However, I never think so. How do you think?
More...

Before this goes into a mis-information fest...

1. Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis are 2 different things.

2. "NOT ALL" Automated trading is based on Technical Analysis or charts.

3. Larger fund managers trades different ways. None of the "Market Wizards" who's still in business are pure technical analysis based traders.

That said... go on with the thread....
 
hello, TSGannGalt
I see your opinion, and I believe that they are your real views and they alse are useful. Yet I still don't very clear of somethings as followings:
1, "Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis are 2 different things." why? I don't think each of them is different from each other. I just think they are the different names for one thing.Because they are all far from the fundamental analysis, and getting the result--sell or buy--from studying the charts.
2, what is your meaning when you refer to "Automated trading "
, I think I never refer to it in my post. Do you mean that sb manipulates the stocks by much money as one of automated trading?
3, Do you mean that "Market Wizards" decide not by technical analysis. In the fact, I only want to know how the mainstream of big traders and investors think of technical analysis.
Thanks!

Quote from TSGannGalt:

Before this goes into a mis-information fest...

1. Quantitative Analysis and Technical Analysis are 2 different things.

2. "NOT ALL" Automated trading is based on Technical Analysis or charts.

3. Larger fund managers trades different ways. None of the "Market Wizards" who's still in business are pure technical analysis based traders.

That said... go on with the thread....
More...
 
Thank you, Mr consistent.
I think I get the meaning. Maybe he means the traders don't only use the technical analysis.In another words, the traders who only use the technical analysis isn't still in the market. In a word he doesn't think the technical analysis is sufficient.

Quote from Mr.Consistent:

You're joking, right?
More...
 
cf0532, I understand your question now. You wanted to know if technical analysis works. The answer is Yes! It works and is a very important tool for traders.

Some economists have done studies and concluded that technical analysis does not work. Their studies don't apply to short term trading.

Some types of technical analysis are not widely accepted as being useful, whereas other aspects of technical analysis are generally accepted as being highly useful. For example, few traders believe Elliot waves are useful, but most traders believe that determining support and resistance levels is very important.

Technical analysis works and it is the main tool, along with what is called "price action", of most short term traders.
 
Quote from cf0532:

I am in China. I have learned the investment for some time, not short. And I only study the analying technology. Yet I often heard that many people said the analysing technology is just sorcery. The real analysis is based on the company. But I don't know how to learn that for me. And I find, many time, the analyzing technology work. How do you deem the problem. Thank you.
More...

It is correct what you hear, theoretically speaking. Nobody has ever proved that over the longer term, returns from technical analysis can exceed 50%. Given transaction costs, in the longer term use of technical analysis leads to losses, theoretically.

Now, what separates good trades from theoretical traders is the ability to know when to use technical analysis and when not to. Also, HOW to use it. This introduces a WINNING BIAS that exceeds transaction costs.

It is simple idea, but difficult to do. The technical analysis you read in books is a thing of the past, along with everything else you read in books about anything. There is a kind of technical analysis that is never taught or disclosed. It deals with proper interpretation of PRICE ACTION. Nobody will teach you that. It can be programmed and it can make money, it is the key that made many people rich but you must discover it yourself. Nobody will disclose his key to riches.

Ni hao
 
Thank you for your reply on my post.

I have read your information carefully, and I agree with mostly.
I think I have apprehended your meanings---the technical analysis can work, but not all the time, and a good trader know when it work and don't. It is easy to understand that the pure technical analysis should not run very well, since if it is, the program can trade rather than traders.

But I still doubt the front of your information---"Nobody has ever proved that over the longer term, returns from technical analysis can exceed 50%". I think some people can exceed.

In USA, I think you can know William Derbet Gann. As far as know, he traded very successfully by technical analysis. What is pity is he never tell sb his secret.

Yes, I alse very agree with you on that "it is the key that made many people rich but you must discover it yourself. Nobody will disclose his key to riches. " Just as other careers, one only can earn money by offering his own effort.



Quote from intradaybill:

It is correct what you hear, theoretically speaking. Nobody has ever proved that over the longer term, returns from technical analysis can exceed 50%. Given transaction costs, in the longer term use of technical analysis leads to losses, theoretically.

Now, what separates good trades from theoretical traders is the ability to know when to use technical analysis and when not to. Also, HOW to use it. This introduces a WINNING BIAS that exceeds transaction costs.

It is simple idea, but difficult to do. The technical analysis you read in books is a thing of the past, along with everything else you read in books about anything. There is a kind of technical analysis that is never taught or disclosed. It deals with proper interpretation of PRICE ACTION. Nobody will teach you that. It can be programmed and it can make money, it is the key that made many people rich but you must discover it yourself. Nobody will disclose his key to riches.

Ni hao
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top