is the 30 year (ZB) a short ?

[Topsurfi]

during all these doom threads it may be time to think about trading and plan where the next chance could be.
I have a short ZB on my list:
1) It went higher during the market turmoil but by far not as strong as one would expect. This means relative weekness
2) Emerging markets like china may need to raise money and sell US-Bonds to cover their own troubles.

Opinions ?

 

[BlackBison]

us bonds still in a 30yr bull.

i am looking for a buying climax in zb before shorting it. a spike to the 130-140 area and ill try to pick the top.

i think now is too soon. give it a year or 2 imo

risk reward is not very good here

 

[Topsurfi]

Quote from BlackBison:

us bonds still in a 30yr bull.
i am looking for a buying climax in zb before shorting it. a spike to the 130-140 area and ill try to pick the top.

I shared your thoughts but if the current market situation does not cause a buying climax, what then ?

 

[BlackBison]

what if we make a bottom in equties over the next few days and rally for a few months?

then next year continue with the equity bear. then zb could spike massively under fresh panic.

i dont know for sure but that could happen and if it does it makes a superb trade. the downside is i may never get on and miss the start of the move.

oh well if that happens you can always sell the rallies on the way down