Is technical analysis less applicable to today's stock markets?

[marketsurfer]

Where are your stock picks publiished?

Also, nobody (or almost nobody) is saying TA is the only way to pick stocks. I hear monkeys do fairly well with darts.

Please reread the post. thank you, surf

 

[kut2k2]

Please reread the post. thank you, surf

I was thinking you published some place besides tip ranks.

 

[marketsurfer]

I was thinking you published some place besides tip ranks.

I was published on numerous outlets- now i just ghost write for others ( it pays way better, lol) - tipranks tracks the calls on a variety of sources, i think.
I never heard of them before someone pointed it out to me

 

[Autodidact]

I can't explain it-- perhaps you are gifted with intuitive abilities not available to the common man?

Where are your calls tracked? Mine are tracked by tipranks.com and i am in the top 3% of all published stock pickers on the planet. I dont use TA to pick stocks. How do u explain this?

surf

I don"t bother with track records as I got nothing to gain from that, don"t need a following, don"t sell anything, don"t need capital, don"t care what strangers think about me, made it a long time ago. Only thing I really need is continued health and happiness for me and my loved ones, although world peace would be peachy by now, what a fucked up world we live in.

However, once in a while when I have an extreme probability read I will voice my market wisdom, some noticed my superior reads by now others might think otherwise, as you know whoever disagrees I will challenge with a bet and thats a bet you will most likely lose because I only speak with confidence when I have absolute clarity.

Best advice I can provide is don"t fade me, odds are very much against you. I"m far from perfect but I"m very good at the very few things I do, and one of those few things is trading using technical analysis I developed on my own over the years, hence my nick so when you continue with your disbelief for TA I cannot help but shake my head. I will say that many times it"s useless for predicting the future, as you claim, other times it can be as precise as a microscope, I suppose the trick is knowing when to stay out and when to stay in, sort of like mastering the on and off switch.

 

[viktor_k67]

I don"t bother with track records as I got nothing to gain from that, don"t need a following, don"t sell anything, don"t need capital, don"t care what strangers think about me, made it a long time ago. Only thing I really need is continued health and happiness for me and my loved ones, although world peace would be peachy by now, what a fucked up world we live in.

 

[cosmiccharlie]

I think that for the purpose of this conversation it might be helpful to define exactly what we mean by technical analysis.

In its broadest sense, technical analysis is the study of price behavior. If price behavior is random then any technical analysis is an exercise in futility.

So what do we know about market behavior from a statistical vantage point?

1. Prices don’t conform to a normal distribution: The tails of the distributions of most freely traded instruments display some kurtosis or have more 2+ std dev occurrences than ‘normal’.
   
   
2. Market prices are a time series that display a long memory effect. What happens today effects tomorrow…. There is price persistence.
   
   
3. Volatility is anti- persistent or mean-reverting.
   

These phenomenon are readily observable. They also roughly correlate with the basic tenants of technical analysis:

1. Trends occur. Once set in motion a trend is more likely to continue than terminate.
   
   
2. Volatility alternates… it expands and contracts.
   
   
3. Momentum precedes price
   
   
4. Trends end in a climax
   

Conceptually and empirically, this stuff still holds up….

Having said that, If a trader believes that he or she can just look for technical patterns like flags, pennants, H&S, etc. or oscillator patterns like divergences – they are in for a surprise.

Nowadays, Al Brooks in vogue and has new names for all of this ‘stuff’ H2s, L2s, three point wedges etc., all of which is worthless taken out of context and is so detailed that it has the trader focusing on the unimportant minutiae.

Just my thoughts….

 

[marketsurfer]

I don"t bother with track records as I got nothing to gain from that, don"t need a following, don"t sell anything, don"t need capital, don"t care what strangers think about me, made it a long time ago. Only thing I really need is continued health and happiness for me and my loved ones, although world peace would be peachy by now, what a fucked up world we live in.

However, once in a while when I have an extreme probability read I will voice my market wisdom, some noticed my superior reads by now others might think otherwise, as you know whoever disagrees I will challenge with a bet and thats a bet you will most likely lose because I only speak with confidence when I have absolute clarity.

Best advice I can provide is don"t fade me, odds are very much against you. I"m far from perfect but I"m very good at the very few things I do, and one of those few things is trading using technical analysis I developed on my own over the years, hence my nick so when you continue with your disbelief for TA I cannot help but shake my head. I will say that many times it"s useless for predicting the future, as you claim, other times it can be as precise as a microscope, I suppose the trick is knowing when to stay out and when to stay in, sort of like mastering the on and off switch.

Ok , thats all well and good-- but you need to understand I am at a huge disadvantage since I am arguing with anonymous folks who are not accountable to anyone as the alias---- but I am a known entity with a published track record--- be that as it may--- good luck to you! surf

 

[Autodidact]

I think that for the purpose of this conversation it might be helpful to define exactly what we mean by technical analysis.

In its broadest sense, technical analysis is the study of price behavior. If price behavior is random then any technical analysis is an exercise in futility.

So what do we know about market behavior from a statistical vantage point?

1. Prices don’t conform to a normal distribution: The tails of the distributions of most freely traded instruments display some kurtosis or have more 2+ std dev occurrences than ‘normal’.
   
   
2. Market prices are a time series that display a long memory effect. What happens today effects tomorrow…. There is price persistence.
   
   
3. Volatility is anti- persistent or mean-reverting.

These phenomenon are readily observable. They also roughly correlate with the basic tenants of technical analysis:

1. Trends occur. Once set in motion a trend is more likely to continue than terminate.
   
   
2. Volatility alternates… it expands and contracts.
   
   
3. Momentum precedes price
   
   
4. Trends end in a climax

Conceptually and empirically, this stuff still holds up….

Having said that, If a trader believes that he or she can just look for technical patterns like flags, pennants, H&S, etc. or oscillator patterns like divergences – they are in for a surprise.

Nowadays, Al Brooks in vogue and has new names for all of this ‘stuff’ H2s, L2s, three point wedges etc., all of which is worthless taken out of context and is so detailed that it has the trader focusing on the unimportant minutiae.

Just my thoughts….

Brook"s stuff is shit. In fact, most if not all of the books Ive read over the years on TA are. I know how to read bars and Brooks never mentions it, not even briefly, my guess, he does not know, which is why he sells.

You know what"s not coincidental, except for channels, the stuff I use to read price Ive never seen published. I use a specific way to read price and I just never seen it in textbooks yet everything else is pure shit; again including Brooks.

One thing though, over time I learned how to apply stats to price action and funny enough that I did learn from a textbook, at least the basic parts.

 

[kut2k2]

Ok , thats all well and good-- but you need to understand I am at a huge disadvantage since I am arguing with anonymous folks who are not accountable to anyone as the alias---- but I am a known entity with a published track record--- be that as it may--- good luck to you! surf

Is your published track record anything like this? :

Accurate? Your calls lack so much details and are so ambiguous it's amazing you truly give yourself accolades, sick actually.

When the market crapped against you, you were nowhere to be found, then you show up out of the blue, and claim profitability, are you for real? LOL

You post entry.

You post adds.

You don't timely call the exits.

You post no details on stops, yes i know you dont use stops, yet everyone has one, either mental or brokerage applicable due to margin.

You post no details on risk management.

You post no details on technique, so one cannot even backtest your claim due to no consideration for timing.

With all of the above, every posted trade can be claimed as profitable, you hold no accountability, you basically immune to failure should you want it that way.

Don't try to defend the unpardonable, some level of detail and integrity is expected in a trading journal.

 

[Autodidact]

Just realized my eyesight is also shit double quotes all over the place when I thought I was using single lol

NoBias if you read this, Im starting to feel like you do, hah!