Is technical analysis less applicable to today's stock markets?

lawrence-lugar · Nov 17, 2015

There's always money to be made in the markets

-- if you find yourself blaming algorithmic trading or computers...then you need to do something about yourself.

Great trading is much more of an art, or intuition or skill -- rather than petty penny-scalping algorithms.

qxr1011 · Nov 17, 2015

eurusdzn said:
Cmon, you are making that up.

if you want to think so, think so

qxr1011 · Nov 17, 2015

Cswim63 said:
How do you say balls in Russian? Oh I forgot. You call them eggs. How nice.

only when we talking about morons

marketsurfer · Nov 17, 2015

TA is completely irrelevant today due to HFT being the primary volume provider.

The following are facts-- not my opinion

1. Over 80% of all stock volume is HFT driven

2. HFT uses the random walk theory as its core component

3. The random walk is antithetical to TA

4. Therefore if the prime volume provider is based on random walk and order does not come from randomness --TA is a pseudoscience of zero credibility in the market.

Game Set Match.

surf

marketsurfer · Nov 17, 2015

Lloyd W. Coutee said:
Technical analysis is not applicable to today's stock market because of the advance in algorithmic trading. Before, human used technical analysis. Now, traders are competing against computers that many signals other than technical analysis, making the latter essentially useless.

Yes. This is 100% accurate. But we have many folks stuck in the past due to a variety of biases and being fooled by randomness. TA is their religion.

viktor_k67 · Nov 19, 2015

marketsurfer said:
TA is completely irrelevant today due to HFT being the primary volume provider.

The following are facts-- not my opinion

1. Over 80% of all stock volume is HFT driven

surf

I just took one of he most traded stocks - AAPL. Please take a look at the chart below

chart courtesy of http://www.marketvolume.com/

If HFT is main component of volume (more than 80% by your opinion) how you explain strong drop in trading volume on AAPL starting from 2008 until now?

I agree with you that HFT affect the market especially on lower time-frames where every $0.01 makes a difference. On my opinion it is extremely difficult to trade intraday time-frames by making 10 trades a day, as you said a trader in this case is competing with computers that do not use any analysis but see coming orders and are able to paste a contrary order and bit the price and then to place another order to close the position with profit.

I would not agree with you when it comes to higher time-frames. HFT has small or no impact on them

Autodidact · Nov 19, 2015

marketsurfer said:
Yes. This is 100% accurate. But we have many folks stuck in the past due to a variety of biases and being fooled by randomness. TA is their religion.

How do you explain my high accuracy and conviction in my words and calls when I attribute everything to technical analysis?

Being very lucky or lying about actually using technical analysis could be two perfectly logical explanations, another one would be, that you are wrong into generalizing that all technical analysis is useless for predicting what's to come.

Best wishes Surf.

marketsurfer · Nov 19, 2015

Autodidact said:
How do you explain my high accuracy and conviction in my words and calls when I attribute everything to technical analysis?

Being very lucky or lying about actually using technical analysis could be two perfectly logical explanations, another one would be, that you are wrong into generalizing that all technical analysis is useless for predicting what's to come.

Best wishes Surf.

I can't explain it-- perhaps you are gifted with intuitive abilities not available to the common man?

Where are your calls tracked? Mine are tracked by tipranks.com and i am in the top 3% of all published stock pickers on the planet. I dont use TA to pick stocks. How do u explain this?

surf

marketsurfer · Nov 19, 2015

viktor_k67 said:
I just took one of he most traded stocks - AAPL. Please take a look at the chart below

chart courtesy of http://www.marketvolume.com/

If HFT is main component of volume (more than 80% by your opinion) how you explain strong drop in trading volume on AAPL starting from 2008 until now?

I agree with you that HFT affect the market especially on lower time-frames where every $0.01 makes a difference. On my opinion it is extremely difficult to trade intraday time-frames by making 10 trades a day, as you said a trader in this case is competing with computers that do not use any analysis but see coming orders and are able to paste a contrary order and bit the price and then to place another order to close the position with profit.

I would not agree with you when it comes to higher time-frames. HFT has small or no impact on them

Apple isn't generally traded by HFT firms. Its too expensive.

surf

kut2k2 · Nov 19, 2015

marketsurfer said:
I can't explain it-- perhaps you are gifted with intuitive abilities not available to the common man?

Where are your calls tracked? Mine are tracked by tipranks.com and i am in the top 3% of all published stock pickers on the planet. I dont use TA to pick stocks. How do u explain this?

surf

Where are your stock picks publiished?

Also, nobody (or almost nobody) is saying TA is the only way to pick stocks. I hear monkeys do fairly well with darts.