Quote from graeme:
Hi marketsurfer,
Could you clarify your position on TA for me? (sorry if you've answered before, but I don't particularly want to read hundreds of argumentative posts between yourself and proflogic to try and find an answer)
Are you saying that it's not possible to make a profit with TA, or are you saying that it's not possible to generate enough of a return off it to beat buy and hold?
MS is saying that there are many successful TA systems.
MS points out that anyone can go and get one and run it and make money.
He gave the general address of the systems that have been made available as "black boxes".
There is a minor caveat. The black boxes may not work for a given person for reasons atributable to the user or his execution platform.
There are many other ways that MS has proven that TA works. He has also proven that he cannot operate many of the TA tools.
He was a member of a TA based oraganization that has continued to grow since it's inception.
Of the many people MS knows who use TA in their operations, MS has not been able to grasp what they do as yet.
Finally MS has not as yet grasped how any trading systems may be tested. Especially those that do not use probabilities nor those that do not rely on risk oriented considerations, protections and valuations.
He has spoken about the one key principle of trading that deals with the present conditions and how the present relates to the unfolding of time. He, unfortunately, does not see or understand what or how these two specific matters are connected via TA. Were he to grasp this relationship, he then could see what and how TA affords any potential trader a tool that is extremely valuable for producing results. Results he has never been witness to except on rare occasions when someone at their personal expense was trying to open his mind to such considerations.
There is a point which many many people reach where they become irreversably "fixed" and cannot ant longer continue to rationally consider the fact that may be placed upon the table.
this crossing on a line that cannot be retraced is not anything for anyone to worry about in any way. It is just a matter of fact in it's occurance and the fact that it is irreversable.
The conventional othodoxy creates three catalysts for this developing and difficult circumstance. They are measurable and a direct consequence of failure. They are: fear, anxiety and anger.
For many people the ball game is over at a certain point in their lives. This is a natural consequence of human nature to step in and affect a "survival" impetus in the given person. It begins psychologically and becomes both psychological and physiological.
Luckily the universities are begining to deal with these things both financially and in terms of human behavior and health. The fields now have academic names that provide for delineation.
It is now notable in the research AND teaching in these fields that different kinds of mathematics find places in the work being done, both probabilistic and non probabilistic.
It is very possible to examine and deal with how people who are prevented from continuing as traders come to get to those consequencial places where they cannot mentally or physically return to their former occupations and activities.
On one hand, the literature abounds with successes of wizards and now behavior finance is introducing the other side of the coin.
ET is providing oral (written records in their typed words) histories, par excellence, of people going through the transitions from their assessor beginnings to ultimate failure. It is also providing oral histories of what it takes to succeed in many many ways, TA usage included. The standard is swinging from conventional performance to unconventional performances that relate to the potential that the market offers. There is no doubt that optimum trading is counter intuitive as demonstrated by the performance records. One outstanding set of records is the in ability of people to backtest what is possible. This failure simply parallels the person's inabilitlies to any longer grasp the way markets and trading tools applied to markets works.
It is not anything to care about. That is just the way the consequences of trading the markets and having repeated failure works. People get to demonstrate these consequences in many many different ways. Being angered by successful traders is a common display in oral (typing words to make expressions) commentary. Often the expression is one that "shoots the messenger" who is allowing the person who crossed the line to understand that the event has transpired, unfortunately.
Don't cross the line is the message for some; for others it is just a recognition of consequences of beliefs becoming behavior.
TA does not work if you have crossed the line. It is nothing to care about one way or another.
TA works for farmers who are managing their production and becoming more operational. For them it is a pragmatic tool that works for farming. They seek and obtain professional support services and tooling. I occasionally use the Butler building Lear jet on application of capital matters and it is very common for clients to have commodities "insurance" that has been provided by people in that financial industry field. TA is part of that. See PL commentary for a collateral viewpoint.
