is a chicken hatched from an egg?
Is Technical Analysis a joke??
- Thread starter Jdesey
- Start date
No. It's not about proability alone.
It's about value. The statistical expectation.
The formula tells you to bet in the lower P(w) case.
Not because of probability alone but because of the expectation.
Selling naked options and collecting premium is a high probability trade.
But overall you end up ruined because more often than not, the loss is infinite.
Let's say you place 1:1 stop loss, take profit.
If you can get a P(win) > 1/2 then you win in the long run.
Value is about probabilities and payoffs.
Risk management is about avoiding variance to ruin you.
You can have an advantage but over bet.
In this case variance will make you broke anyway.
The formula tells you how much to bet.
It's the simplified kelly criterion.
If you have an edge then don't bet more than kelly (x%).
If you don't have an edge then don't bet.
That's the outcome of the formula.
#1 You need a reliable system
#2 That recognize positive expected value (Profitability)
#3 You need to know how to size your bet
#4 To max(Growth) and min(Ruin) (Risk)
Yes sir
Don't know what I meant by "A chicken isn't born chicken" LMAO
It's a kind of Chicken Existentialism
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the egg, qed
So tomm it will be turkey? Then next year a buzzard. In a decade it will become an iguana tail and all! Sounds kinda stupid doesn’t it? If you came from a monkey you better hope you forever dropped the tail..ROFLMAO.
Lamarck vs. Darwin — New England Complex Systems Institute
https://necsi.edu/lamarck-vs-darwin
Jean-Baptiste Lamarck (1744-1829) and Charles Darwin (1809-1882) both thought and had ideas about how life on earth got to be the way it is now. They had ...
Theories of evolution Lamarck vs Darwin | Evolution | Biology ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x73bsC7WIsE
Jan 7, 2020 ... Lamarck vs Darwin An organism changes during its life in order to adapt to its environment. These changes are passed on to its offspring.
Some monkeys didn’t adapt. They didn't lose their tail. Nor do they drive a Toyota and send a rocket ship to the moon.
On the other hand some people can “act” like a monkey.
What’s up doc?
It’s stupid only because you want it to sounds stupid.
Funny, isn’t it ?
Speaking of dropping the tail
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coccyx
LMAO
So who’s first ?
The baby or the mother ?
You guys are telling it’s the mother.
But the mother was first a baby !
So it’s the egg.