Is Technical Analysis a joke??

smallfil said:
Who are those so called gurus? That word is overused. If these guys were any good, they would be trading their own monies and would have no need of charging you thousands of dollars for their expertise. They would be so busy trading that they would have no use for students to mentor? Do you see any of those on Jack Schwager's Market Wizards, trying to tout themselves and seek students to mentor and charge a few thousand for their services?
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I am always listening these guys as I’m always learning something new. It never late to learn.
As I can state it is good to spent your time to learn. You should filter what you will take, but this will come with your own experience.
 
Jdesey said:
I am starting to finally believe that TA ain't all it's touted to be. I get solid Sup/Res numbers from some great Tech Analysis experts, this is only on the indexes as I trade QQQ and SPY,,, snd then we just slice right thru those levels. I think all the patterns of handles, flags, hanging man, cups, hammers , etc... is crap.

What all of it misses is how exactly price moves. Price moves by investor activity. there are only 4 moves, Buy / Sell / Hold / stay out (or I guess moves if we consider shorts).
So, to me predicting the future based on chart patterns of the past is like predicting the next spin of the roulette wheel based on the last X number of spins. Which does not work.

I am starting to fully believe in doing the opposite of investor sentiment. I watch the Put/call ratio, AAII survey, etc... just do the opposite.

thoughts? comments?
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From the resent past. When all experts in early March were telling do not buy the bottom will be much deeper and every day was -1000. Nobody was buying the same story was on 3/23. Finally it turned around and people started to jump on. But big guys bought it before all of you.
I was going against the market was investing in oversold good stocks with cash.
Sure I was shorting that time for day trading, but started to have long positions too.
Big technicals lost about less 20%. Some other lost 80%.
CCL cruise line f.e. They have money for year to survive and at least will double, triple when they open. SA bought 8% stake from the company. Of course I did not know what was the bottom. What I was doing to analyze the price to buy if it was sinking down I was buying again till we got the bottom. When everybody got what was the bottom you will be trailed by institutions.
 
Jdesey said:
I am starting to finally believe that TA ain't all it's touted to be. I get solid Sup/Res numbers from some great Tech Analysis experts, this is only on the indexes as I trade QQQ and SPY,,, snd then we just slice right thru those levels. I think all the patterns of handles, flags, hanging man, cups, hammers , etc... is crap.

What all of it misses is how exactly price moves. Price moves by investor activity. there are only 4 moves, Buy / Sell / Hold / stay out (or I guess moves if we consider shorts).
So, to me predicting the future based on chart patterns of the past is like predicting the next spin of the roulette wheel based on the last X number of spins. Which does not work.

I am starting to fully believe in doing the opposite of investor sentiment. I watch the Put/call ratio, AAII survey, etc... just do the opposite.

thoughts? comments?
More...
Market skills: technicals, stock/price/etc analysis, intuition.
If you are perfect in at least one of these 9 of 10 you can use only one you will win.
I am not therefore I’m utilizing all. However my best one is stock price
evaluation.
It you do it right, it does not matter about trend at some point of course.
Plus I’m doing opposite to market so when it turns opposite I will have an advantage.
 
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1957may10 said:
From the resent past. When all experts in early March were telling do not buy the bottom will be much deeper and every day was -1000. Nobody was buying the same story was on 3/23. Finally it turned around and people started to jump on. But big guys bought it before all of you.
I was going against the market was investing in oversold good stocks with cash.
Sure I was shorting that time for day trading, but started to have long positions too.
Big technicals lost about less 20%. Some other lost 80%.
CCL cruise line f.e. They have money for year to survive and at least will double, triple when they open. SA bought 8% stake from the company. Of course I did not know what was the bottom. What I was doing to analyze the price to buy if it was sinking down I was buying again till we got the bottom. When everybody got what was the bottom you will be trailed by institutions.
More...
I got oil refineries stock it comes up slowly but surely. It is a shortage of refineries, guess what .
I’m still not sure when to sell. Folks what is your opinion?
Everybody buying now, good time to sell or still early.
 
Scataphagos said:
Here's a little story...

My first lab in college chemistry was to light a candle and write down all of my observations about it.

I came up with about 30. When I got my graded lab report back, the prof included a list of observations I could have made. There were 80 items on that list. Meaning... I sat 2 feet away for the better part of an hour and observed intently... and still missed half of them.

TA is like that. TA works all day, every day, in all markets and in all time frames. We all have charts. We all see the same thing. It's right there in front of our faces all day long.... yet few of us "get it".
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https://serc.carleton.edu/sp/mnstep/activities/35562.html
 
Jdesey said:
I am starting to finally believe that TA ain't all it's touted to be. I get solid Sup/Res numbers from some great Tech Analysis experts, this is only on the indexes as I trade QQQ and SPY,,, snd then we just slice right thru those levels. I think all the patterns of handles, flags, hanging man, cups, hammers , etc... is crap.

What all of it misses is how exactly price moves. Price moves by investor activity. there are only 4 moves, Buy / Sell / Hold / stay out (or I guess moves if we consider shorts).
So, to me predicting the future based on chart patterns of the past is like predicting the next spin of the roulette wheel based on the last X number of spins. Which does not work.

I am starting to fully believe in doing the opposite of investor sentiment. I watch the Put/call ratio, AAII survey, etc... just do the opposite.

thoughts? comments?
More...
DOW strikes 23655 20% all high down twice. Now it comes higher mean will go high.
 
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