Is Technical Analysis a joke??

I am starting to finally believe that TA ain't all it's touted to be. I get solid Sup/Res numbers from some great Tech Analysis experts, this is only on the indexes as I trade QQQ and SPY,,, snd then we just slice right thru those levels. I think all the patterns of handles, flags, hanging man, cups, hammers , etc... is crap.

What all of it misses is how exactly price moves. Price moves by investor activity. there are only 4 moves, Buy / Sell / Hold / stay out (or I guess moves if we consider shorts).
So, to me predicting the future based on chart patterns of the past is like predicting the next spin of the roulette wheel based on the last X number of spins. Which does not work.

I am starting to fully believe in doing the opposite of investor sentiment. I watch the Put/call ratio, AAII survey, etc... just do the opposite.

thoughts? comments?
I added a few comments, think about why the bar stops moving where it does in relation to the bar next to it, no matter time frame...then out of interest watch close of price would be my next focus
 
I am starting to finally believe that TA ain't all it's touted to be. I get solid Sup/Res numbers from some great Tech Analysis experts, this is only on the indexes as I trade QQQ and SPY,,, snd then we just slice right thru those levels. I think all the patterns of handles, flags, hanging man, cups, hammers , etc... is crap.

What all of it misses is how exactly price moves. Price moves by investor activity. there are only 4 moves, Buy / Sell / Hold / stay out (or I guess moves if we consider shorts).
So, to me predicting the future based on chart patterns of the past is like predicting the next spin of the roulette wheel based on the last X number of spins. Which does not work.

I am starting to fully believe in doing the opposite of investor sentiment. I watch the Put/call ratio, AAII survey, etc... just do the opposite.

thoughts? comments?
Probability of a winning trade is .5 very similar to flipping the coin. If you are making an entry when price ascends are you exiting at the right
I am starting to finally believe that TA ain't all it's touted to be. I get solid Sup/Res numbers from some great Tech Analysis experts, this is only on the indexes as I trade QQQ and SPY,,, snd then we just slice right thru those levels. I think all the patterns of handles, flags, hanging man, cups, hammers , etc... is crap.

What all of it misses is how exactly price moves. Price moves by investor activity. there are only 4 moves, Buy / Sell / Hold / stay out (or I guess moves if we consider shorts).
So, to me predicting the future based on chart patterns of the past is like predicting the next spin of the roulette wheel based on the last X number of spins. Which does not work.

I am starting to fully believe in doing the opposite of investor sentiment. I watch the Put/call ratio, AAII survey, etc... just do the opposite.

thoughts? comments?
I am perhaps a puppy compared to most other readers. If a person trips and falls from a stair can it be concluded that stairs are crap?
Probability of winning trade is .5 win or a loss. Do we say it is low probability or high probability. Uncertainty is part of the game. Is probability and statistics equally crap
? Standard deviation is a lie?
Specific to support and resistance they illustrate existence of trend reversals, Brownian movement or patterns. They are not guaranteed stop points.
Are we entering the trade at the right trend. If so are we exiting when trend starts to reverse.
Current mkt conditions have a lot of influencing items that causes the trend to change in a relatively short timeframe.
When expectation fails can it be equated to probability is a lie.
 
I have not come across a successful TA trader in my long voyage in trading. It's been all gurus and "educators" pushing it. Not to say there aren't any profitable practitioners as you can't prove a negative. But the burden of proof - and we should all easily agree on this - is on the people who claims that TA works.

As an aside, there is absolutely nothing "technical" about drawing lines on charts or moving average calculations (and all their various derivatives). The name itself - technical analysis - is one of the great misnomers.

Good that you think that way. Like they say, ignorance is bliss. Just because you cannot read a stockchart properly, does not mean others cannot as well. You are chum for the Wall Street sharks (hedge funds, mutual funds, banks and brokers). They will chew you up and spit your bones out.
 
I am starting to finally believe that TA ain't all it's touted to be. I get solid Sup/Res numbers from some great Tech Analysis experts, this is only on the indexes as I trade QQQ and SPY,,, snd then we just slice right thru those levels. I think all the patterns of handles, flags, hanging man, cups, hammers , etc... is crap.

What all of it misses is how exactly price moves. Price moves by investor activity. there are only 4 moves, Buy / Sell / Hold / stay out (or I guess moves if we consider shorts).
So, to me predicting the future based on chart patterns of the past is like predicting the next spin of the roulette wheel based on the last X number of spins. Which does not work.

I am starting to fully believe in doing the opposite of investor sentiment. I watch the Put/call ratio, AAII survey, etc... just do the opposite.

thoughts? comments?
Yes, you are on the right truck. At least it work for me for long time.
Let me tell the story.
A while ago my boss came to me early morning and sad: why don’t we buy xyz company a few thousand stocks it will rise today. We bought. In an hour we told him it is sinking down.
He told, buy 10k. We did, and it was still diving.
He sad OK buy 50k and it was a turning point for the stock. He came and ask how is xyz.
Boss man it is climbing up. You see did I tell you it will rise.
Moral: even you play by the rule, somebody will play against you and win.
So what should you do. I have my answer, it is not a silver bullet, but you may handle it.
I will put it together. But you have to know the basics TA is not bad to know.
Btw it helps a lot and you need it as all others tools.
The more you know, the most advantage you have.
 
I have not come across a successful TA trader in my long voyage in trading. It's been all gurus and "educators" pushing it. Not to say there aren't any profitable practitioners as you can't prove a negative. But the burden of proof - and we should all easily agree on this - is on the people who claims that TA works.

As an aside, there is absolutely nothing "technical" about drawing lines on charts or moving average calculations (and all their various derivatives). The name itself - technical analysis - is one of the great misnomers.

Who are those so called gurus? That word is overused. If these guys were any good, they would be trading their own monies and would have no need of charging you thousands of dollars for their expertise. They would be so busy trading that they would have no use for students to mentor? Do you see any of those on Jack Schwager's Market Wizards, trying to tout themselves and seek students to mentor and charge a few thousand for their services?
 
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