http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-...lation-will-egypt-cause-an-economic-doomsday/
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Charlie Gasparino
Charlie Gasparino is a senior correspondent for Fox Business Network. He is a columnist for The Daily Beast and a frequent contributor to the New York Post, Forbes, and other publications. His latest book, Bought and Paid For, is about the Obama administration and Wall Street.
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Will the chaos in Egypt reverberate here financially? Charlie Gasparino on how some economists fear a return of 1970s-style "stagflation," and how Chinese policy helps stoke it.
All the signs have been pointing to a robust economy in 2011, from the president's pump-priming cave on Bush-era tax cuts (as well as accompanying extension benefits) to business openness to turning cash stockpiles into expansion. The stock market has cracked the 12000 level, and Republicans have been privately worrying that, in prodding Obama into adopting more free-market principles, they inadvertently saved his presidency.
-- Empty Space Deleted by Admin Joe --
Now comes the political crisis in Egypt and you can almost feel the markets fret. Oil prices have been edging up, the markets recorded their largest decline since November, and even worse, the chatter among many economists has raised the specter of global "stagflation," the economic disorder that made the late 1970s and early 1980s among the worst years for the economy since the Great Depression.
Of course, there are many reasons to be worried about Egypt's instability aside from its economic impact. Egypt is possibly our most important Arab ally, and a friend�or at least not an enemy�one of America's bedrock partners, its next-door neighbor Israel. In recent years, Egypt has seen a rise in Islamic fundamentalism, and the crisis that has stunned Mubarak, a despot with pro-U.S. leanings, has eerie parallels with the late 1970s, and the shah of Iran. You know how that turned out.
But the economic impact of Egypt's political unrest shouldn't be underestimated�and certainly not ignored by investors and economic policymakers. The markets, of course, are always looking for reasons to trade up or trade down, and after cranking out gains over the past eight weeks, looting and rioting in the Middle East was as good as a reason as any for traders to take some profits.
Still, what happened Friday wasn't a mere hiccup for a market poised for Dow 12000 and above; rather it's the realization that a government potentially hostile to the U.S. and its interests could control the Suez Canal, a vital shipping lane for oil coming from the Middle East and to the West; it is a recalculation of the risk of severe economic turmoil if Egypt is swept into a radical Islamic frenzy and if oil prices double or even triple as a result; it's the recognition that for all the positive forces influencing the economy now, there's also a strong undercurrent of weakness, a structural imbalance that makes stagflation�where a economy suffers from both high unemployment and inflation ................
Info
Charlie Gasparino
Charlie Gasparino is a senior correspondent for Fox Business Network. He is a columnist for The Daily Beast and a frequent contributor to the New York Post, Forbes, and other publications. His latest book, Bought and Paid For, is about the Obama administration and Wall Street.
X Close
Charlie Gasparino
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* Single Page
* Share
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Will the chaos in Egypt reverberate here financially? Charlie Gasparino on how some economists fear a return of 1970s-style "stagflation," and how Chinese policy helps stoke it.
All the signs have been pointing to a robust economy in 2011, from the president's pump-priming cave on Bush-era tax cuts (as well as accompanying extension benefits) to business openness to turning cash stockpiles into expansion. The stock market has cracked the 12000 level, and Republicans have been privately worrying that, in prodding Obama into adopting more free-market principles, they inadvertently saved his presidency.
-- Empty Space Deleted by Admin Joe --
Now comes the political crisis in Egypt and you can almost feel the markets fret. Oil prices have been edging up, the markets recorded their largest decline since November, and even worse, the chatter among many economists has raised the specter of global "stagflation," the economic disorder that made the late 1970s and early 1980s among the worst years for the economy since the Great Depression.
Of course, there are many reasons to be worried about Egypt's instability aside from its economic impact. Egypt is possibly our most important Arab ally, and a friend�or at least not an enemy�one of America's bedrock partners, its next-door neighbor Israel. In recent years, Egypt has seen a rise in Islamic fundamentalism, and the crisis that has stunned Mubarak, a despot with pro-U.S. leanings, has eerie parallels with the late 1970s, and the shah of Iran. You know how that turned out.
But the economic impact of Egypt's political unrest shouldn't be underestimated�and certainly not ignored by investors and economic policymakers. The markets, of course, are always looking for reasons to trade up or trade down, and after cranking out gains over the past eight weeks, looting and rioting in the Middle East was as good as a reason as any for traders to take some profits.
Still, what happened Friday wasn't a mere hiccup for a market poised for Dow 12000 and above; rather it's the realization that a government potentially hostile to the U.S. and its interests could control the Suez Canal, a vital shipping lane for oil coming from the Middle East and to the West; it is a recalculation of the risk of severe economic turmoil if Egypt is swept into a radical Islamic frenzy and if oil prices double or even triple as a result; it's the recognition that for all the positive forces influencing the economy now, there's also a strong undercurrent of weakness, a structural imbalance that makes stagflation�where a economy suffers from both high unemployment and inflation ................
