Is SPY due for a Pullback?

[Update]

SPY (November 16, 2012 - August 16, 2013) Uptrend:

23 day Rally: 132.46 to 143.16 = +8.08%
8 day Pullback: 143.16 to 138.19 = -3.47%

34 day Rally: 138.19 to 151.80 = +9.85%
6 day Pullback: 151.80 to 147.29 = -2.97%

32 day Rally: 147.29 to 158.87 = +7.86%
6 day Pullback: 158.87 to 152.74 = -3.86%

25 day Rally: 152.74 to 168.18 = +10.11%
23 day Pullback: 168.18 to 155.73 = -7.40%

29 day Rally: 155.73 to 170.97 = +9.79%
10 day Pullback: 170.97 to 165.50 = -3.20%
 

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[Update]

SPY (November 16, 2012 - August 19, 2013) Uptrend:

23 day Rally: 132.46 to 143.16 = +8.08%
8 day Pullback: 143.16 to 138.19 = -3.47%

34 day Rally: 138.19 to 151.80 = +9.85%
6 day Pullback: 151.80 to 147.29 = -2.97%

32 day Rally: 147.29 to 158.87 = +7.86%
6 day Pullback: 158.87 to 152.74 = -3.86%

25 day Rally: 152.74 to 168.18 = +10.11%
23 day Pullback: 168.18 to 155.73 = -7.40%

29 day Rally: 155.73 to 170.97 = +9.79%
11 day Pullback: 170.97 to 164.76 = -3.63%
 

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"Heads": 164.19 is the New Higher Low in an Uptrend which will then go to a New High above 170.97.

"Tails": SPY will fall back beneath the 50 day SMA, and then continue its descent below 164.19.

I'm calling "Tails", so will hold on to my SPY October 164 PUT. :eek:
 

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[Update]

SPY (November 16, 2012 - August 28, 2013) Uptrend:

23 day Rally: 132.46 to 143.16 = +8.08%
8 day Pullback: 143.16 to 138.19 = -3.47%

34 day Rally: 138.19 to 151.80 = +9.85%
6 day Pullback: 151.80 to 147.29 = -2.97%

32 day Rally: 147.29 to 158.87 = +7.86%
6 day Pullback: 158.87 to 152.74 = -3.86%

25 day Rally: 152.74 to 168.18 = +10.11%
23 day Pullback: 168.18 to 155.73 = -7.40%

29 day Rally: 155.73 to 170.97 = +9.79%
19 day Pullback: 170.97 to 163.05 = -4.63%
 

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A Short Term Downtrend seems to be forming:
High: 170.97
Low: 164.19
Lower High: 167.30
Lower Low: 163.05
Lower High: 166.98

Also:
There was a "Death Cross" for the 20 day EMA and 50 day SMA at the end of last week.
This week SPY was unable to close above 50 day MA Resistance, despite 4 up-days in a row.
The move from 163.05 to 166.98 looks like another Bear Flag within SPY's latest Pullback.

However:
The last time these exact same technically "Bearish Signals" happened, in late June and early July, SPY proceeded to break out into a nice month long rally from 161.30 to 170.97.

So it still looks like a coin toss as to what comes next for SPY: 160 or 172??
 

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[Update]

SPY (November 16, 2012 - September 16, 2013) Uptrend:

23 day Rally: 132.46 to 143.16 = +8.08%
8 day Pullback: 143.16 to 138.19 = -3.47%

34 day Rally: 138.19 to 151.80 = +9.85%
6 day Pullback: 151.80 to 147.29 = -2.97%

32 day Rally: 147.29 to 158.87 = +7.86%
6 day Pullback: 158.87 to 152.74 = -3.86%

25 day Rally: 152.74 to 168.18 = +10.11%
23 day Pullback: 168.18 to 155.73 = -7.40%

29 day Rally: 155.73 to 170.97 = +9.79%
19 day Pullback: 170.97 to 163.05 = -4.63%

12 day Rally: 163.05 to 171.24 = +5.02%

The "Melt-Up" continues.
Last hope for the Shorts at this point is an "Island Reversal"...
 

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So the last time the Fed made a totally unexpected announcement was last September when they announced QE-Infinity. The market soared that day, just as it did yesterday. Then the next day, the market gapped higher, just as it did today. But that marked the top for a few months and the market dropped 10% from mid September to November. Wonder if something similar will happen now.
 
Quote from nillionaire:

So the last time the Fed made a totally unexpected announcement was last September when they announced QE-Infinity. The market soared that day, just as it did yesterday. Then the next day, the market gapped higher, just as it did today. But that marked the top for a few months and the market dropped 10% from mid September to November. Wonder if something similar will happen now.
More...


Yes, those moves you mentioned can be seen on the left side of this chart.
The 10% Pullback from 170.97 didn't happen, so I'll surely be taking a loss on this trade (Long on an October 164 Put).
But a Pullback with some big red bars in the next couple of weeks would certainly help lessen the damage!
:p
 

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