Is S&P forming intermediate term double top?

IS S&P forming an intermediate term double top ?

  • Yes

    Votes: 40 41.7%

  • No way

    Votes: 33 34.4%

  • I don't like you or these polls

    Votes: 23 24.0%
  • Total voters
    96
Quote from Tsing Tao:

sorry, fly down. looks like this is the end of the road for you, my friend. you cannot fight the fed and pomo. not with ta, not with anything.
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No not yet. This week will include downside action. Let's see.

The sentiment is way too extreme for the market to rise here. Usually you cannot fight the fed, but they don't have ultimate control and when sentiment is this biased, it can only go contrarian.
 
Quote from failed_trad3r:

Define risky. The markets are always risky. However did you go long at 1050? If did you actually believed the market was risky at that moment? You would have missed a 200 point S&P-run. Getting long is always extremely risky, for a permabear. I have a feeling you don't realize it yet, that you shows signs of being a permabear. Even if you're not one, you are contradicting yourself. Going long is extremely risky, but you're net long. You make no sense at all. If you went long you are expecting market to rally to even more new highs, like what I predicted S&P 1270. it's like you're a shizophrenic.
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What's risky is a long entry when, as poster above me said, sentiment is very high. You might catch a few % but if you target more than that it is best to wait for a dip and then buy on the way back up.

I'm sure every long/short fund or investor is schizophrenic. I am long certain stocks because I happen to find them undervalued (this includes LAD, DRYS, MSFT and some other stuff). I've had LAD and DRYS for a while so you can figure that these guys more than made up for my loss in AAPL over the past months.

I personally find the S&P 500 and other indices to be overvalued (as opposed to the stuff I actually own which is not, in my opinion).
 
Quote from fly down:

No not yet. This week will include downside action. Let's see.

The sentiment is way too extreme for the market to rise here. Usually you cannot fight the fed, but they don't have ultimate control and when sentiment is this biased, it can only go contrarian.
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i certainly cannot argue that sentiment is absurd, as is valuation. but the fed has shown it will sacrifice itself and the country before the stock market.
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

i certainly cannot argue that sentiment is absurd, as is valuation. but the fed has shown it will sacrifice itself and the country before the stock market.
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Yes, and after this expiration week, the fed will again be in control. But with excessive sentiment and expiration, there is only one direction to go..down.
 
Quote from fly down:

guaranteed a nice down day tomorrow wednesday 12/15.
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Yes it was a down day. perfect timing to take the premium out of close to the money december calls.
 
Quote from fly down:

Yes it was a down day. perfect timing to take the premium out of close to the money december calls.
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I opened some shorts on GOOG, BIDU, FCX, POT. and Long SDS.
Almost 20% of my a/c.
Lets see what happens in cpl of days. not planning to stay short for long. will close these on the next tripple digit UP day.

P.S. Bought some 35 strk calls JAN exp. on BBY. Just a bad Gambling habbit.
 
Quote from fly down:

as long as the S&P doesn't close above 1250, I feel comfortable here.
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Yep, I am holding my SHORTS and boxers :p

If we gap up and get a tripple digit gain day. I am reversing my SHORTS and probably would need to change my Boxers as well.

:D
 
Quote from fly down:

The high in April was 1219.8

It is my belief that the S&P is forming an intermediate term double top around 1220. This does not mean it will not go abit higher than 1220. I think the formation now is in the process of forming a top.

So should zig zag abit around 1220 as the top forms.
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Use all the technicals you want, at some point you have to realize almost every event in the near term is bullish and there's overwhelming bullish sentiment. Did your "double top" tell you that?

Technicals are good, and I'm not saying your wrong, but consider all the other things as well
 
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