Is rate cut a given next week?

[jasonjm]

if fed cuts 25 bps, stocks down, treasuries up is the knee jerk reaction short term

after that I have no idea

 

[youngtrader]

You dont think both the stock market and bonds have at least a 25 bps cut priced in already?

 

[pumpanddumper]

.50 is baked in right now I believe. I won't be surprised if the scumbags do an unprecidented back to back .75 though especially if the markets dump early in the week.

It's absolute BS to do such a thing but a remote possibility just to get bulls all warm and fuzzy. The scumbags are cutting to 2% this year no doubt. They might as well get it done quickly.

Just creating a brand new credit bubble. I look forward to next year when there will be surprise rate hikes when there are no more rates to be cut and this backfires on the economy. Just have to trade with flow...for now.

At least the ECB has a pair of balls.

 

[EMRGLOBAL]

ECB def. has a set of balls,

FED is however trying to prevent a massive recession in an election year.

 

[pumpanddumper]

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

ECB def. has a set of balls,

FED is however trying to prevent a massive recession in an election year.

No, not a recession in an election tear. (sarcasm). No Ben, higher inflation is a lot better. Ben keep those Dem's out of office!

 

[alientrader]

bernanke got tricked by the frenchies and will raise 75 pts next week to recover from his mistake

 

[DeepFried]

The main reason I think the Fed will cut by .25 is because that will disappoint, confuse and piss off the maximum number of people - and that's what this Fed is good at. I hope they prove me wrong.

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from hrokling:

If Europe and Asia would have been down a total of 4-5% on Mon/Tue before US open they still could have done a surprise cut of maybe 50, but the extra oomph must have been caused by Soc Gen. And if the markets hadn't been down that much they could have waited until their scheduled announcement. So, I didn't mean that Soc Gen caused the whole thing but it became a catalyst that might have pushed both the timing forward and increased the size of the rate cut.

The Fed could still very well have cut 75 next week if they hadn't done the emergency one. As it is now, their timing is slightly off - they have to offer something more - and they already know that the 75 they did was probably as much as they should have done at the scheduled meeting.

Just my 2 cents of course. And yes, I know this might be what everyone says - but often the Fed can be quite predictable and "everyone" is right.

I agree with about 90% of what you're saying but, I'm thinking if the market hadn't already been weak as a kitten, SocGen and whoever else was selling wouldn't have have been able to kick the Dow futures down by 620 points by Tuesday morning. I agree, though, it certainly complicates things for the Fed this week.

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from sprstpd:

It is ridiculous that the Fed even looks at the stock market when deciding to cut or raise rates. The Fed is a joke. Rates need to be at least 400 bps higher in order to curb inflation. The Fed should be worried about inflation, not propping up a cry baby market.

What you're saying is what's ridiculous. 400bp higher? It's of course correct for the Fed to address inflation but chopping equity prices in half and stomping the economy into the dirt until we're practically back to a barter economy, which is what your prescription would do, is no solution.

 

[sumosam]

I thought 25 was a foregone conclusion...whatever, the market looks ready to roll over. Perhaps, no cut will surprise everyone into believing "the ecomony is rosy"