Is price movement really random and unpredictable?

[ironchef]

Just remember 1m charts require faster decision making. And a big bull bar or large bear bar on a 5 min chart is a trend on a 1m chart and can have PBS on 1m or no PBs, and is also likely a PB on a 15 mi chart or 30m chart.

I agree, 1 min is too fast for manual but since I started with it, I need to finish with it before switching.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

My decision to exit is based on how I read the momentum of price the moment at the level that price is at, at the moment. That includes resistance and support levels and how price acts when gets there.
I have no set amount, dollar or point amount. The minimum scalp is one point. If I don’t think I can get one point then I figure it is not worth taking the trade.

In short I let PA determine when I exit. I am interested in “how” price was made as I am interested in the distance or size of the move. And that doesn’t mean all big bars. Some of the strongest trends crawl up or down but they are relentless.

Most of my trades get me 2 to 4 points. Some get me 8 or 10 points. I firmly believe in taking what the market hands because it can “poof” disappear in a puff of smoke faster than I can sneeze. I am a strong advocate of locking in profits quickly. I can always enter again with a new trade should a move continue that I have already exited with a profit. This modus operandi renders me a high win rate.

Good Morning volpri,

Thank you for the detailed response. I appreciate it and agree with what you are saying.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Where is that crash some many pundits were rolling off their tongues?

Hello volpri,

LOL hahahahahh that is true. The market keeps going up. up up up and away

Like the ES, it moves slow, but it grinds up today no matter what.

 

[volpri]

Today was a SPBL trend. I only had time for 5 trades today. But I will post a chart later explaining them and the SL's etc. Right now have to make a run to town.

 

[volpri]

well I didn't get a chart posted. will try to post some chart from next weeks trading.. maybe if i have time. Have a good weekend.

 

[Franziskaschulz]

I know that definitely there is a reason for most of the movements, especially the huge ones, but it is impossible to know all the reasons, so we shall say they are random!

 

[MACD]

 

[MACD]

https://app.screencast.com/re6p9YSV9RPDL

 

[Bandiginn]

Yes and no.
In many cases you can predict future price movement based on technical side and fundamental one. I would say fundamental side matters in 80% of cases, while the rest 20% goes for technical side. This is how market works, this is how price takes a particular direction and keeps with it until there are many buyers or sellers. If the price reverses, then it makes buyers, for example, close their long orders and open short ones, hence volumes increase and here it is - downtrend.

 

[tuxedo69]

Imo, Charts are not random in normal trading conditions, But when you introduce major or outside geopolitical news then for a period the charts become momentarily random and unreadable, but after, then revert back to normal tradeable conditions.

There is a reason for the waves in the markets, and the candles are painted to produce those waves.