Is price movement really random and unpredictable?
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
Ridiculous. Long term markets are not random. For example, a company that is losing money every year is more likely to go out of business than a company that is making money. A company with less capital remaining has less ability to persue opportunities, etc.
And long term markets make you money if you're not constantly jumping around buying garbage. If you bought the SP 500 or DJIA 30 years ago, you're up significantly. Tons of people make money in the market long term.
Those same billionaires who don't realize that "almost always above 75% of the time" is actually word salad and makes no sense? Would you really want to meet people who can't read?
Finally, somebody figured out what I was after!
Folks, in order to become filth rich, you don't need to predict what will happen tomorrow, let alone next week, next month or even next year. You just need to know what the next bar or candle is. Do that time and time again and you're set to become a billionaire in no time.
This thread is another ET Special started by an ET All-Star. The unintentional humor is entertaining but admittedly getting a bit stale.Finally, somebody figured out what I was after!
Folks, in order to become filth rich, you don't need to predict what will happen tomorrow, let alone next week, next month or even next year. You just need to know what the next bar or candle is. Do that time and time again and you're set to become a billionaire in no time.
So let me ask the obvious question: How do you KNOW what the next bar is?
Let's use simple logic to think this through. If you were able to KNOW, then by using daily, weekly, monthly or yearly bars, you should be able to KNOW what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month or next year.
You obviously trade different than I do and your chart is not a 5min time based chart. Here are 3 trades I took during the same aprox time. There were several ways to trade this. I just placed them bracketed and didn't have time to watch all of them play out. So I had to leave the computer.View attachment 331601
ES / MES right now. This is what I mean by random flow. It's just random back and forth.
But if anyone can predict the next tick or bar - let's hear it...
And no - after the fact doesn't count...
Because after the fact it will be an obvious consolidation before continuation lower.
Or it will be an obvious consolidation / higher low before moving higher...
First trade was a long trade on a bull bar that broke the high of the last 14 bars AND broke above the moving average. That spike could have been you buying your 1000 contracts..LOL See such price action creates inertia with a chance there will be at least a decent scalpers move in the same direction. As a scalper I scalp 1 to 8 points over and over all session long or until I get tired. The first trade a long trade - scalped 2 points. Second trade short scalped -1.5 pts, 3rd short scalped trade 2 points.
So trading an environment that many would consider noise! Down from open..then up..then down..then going back up with that 11:50 spike. Sideways motion=noise as defined by many traders. I see no noise. All I see are scalping opportunities and many more in that same leg up but I just couldn't be there the whole time. So 5.5 points in 55 min in what many consider noise.
And notice that first trade. Bar 11:50. Whoever caused that spike well it doesn't matter. What does matter is it broke the high of the last 14 bars and broke above the MA. Odds favor that the inertia of such action would be enough to give a scalpers profit. And I took it 2 points. I took that position because I made a reasonable prediction we would see more bullish move. At least enough for a scalp. I could have even simply added on the next bear bar or took my exit like I did and entered again long 2 bars after that bear bar betting it is still going up. I shorted the 12:10 bar because we were at a resistance level look to the left and chances are a scalp down was feasible and logical. The same logic for the third trade.
Had I been here watching the entire price action during this 55 minutes that these three trades were taken in I would have had even more scalping entries and exits. Ten points could have easily been extracted out of those 55 minutes instead of 5.5 pts. All this done in "noise" as some say. I see zero noise and only tradeable price action.
We just trade and predict differently. And believe me your 1000 contract dump you mentioned earlier would have most certainly been tradeable. If not from a 5 min then from a 1 min chart. But a sudden dump will move the market and that move is not noise but tradeable price action for a scalper.
Your prediction was partially correct. Price did trade back up above 4820 but it closed not in the green but 24 points or so below the high of the day. So how was that longer term prediction any more accurate or correct than my very short term predictions in the midst of what many would call noise including yourself?
More importantly did you realize profit from your predictions?
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It's your poll. Are you now saying you shouldn't try to predict the next bar?Sorry, it was meant as a sarcasm to @hilmy83's equally sarcastic post.
Furthermore, even if you can predict accurately the next bar > 50%, does the trading system have positive expectancy?
First of all, I never said that noise is not tradeable. For example, if there's a trend going from A to B, I would consider every counter deviation/spike (noise) on that path a possible trading opportunity. Simplistically.
Anyway, if the market was as predictable as you suggest it is, I was thinking you'd net more than 5.5 points on a 34.25 point day.
Of course, any green day is a good day and if you can average 5 points per day on ES you're golden in my books, but there's a gap between your claims about how predictable markets are and your performance, IMO.
Thursday's Close was 4814.75. Friday closed at 4816.75. So, effectively, a green close.
Yes, I did.
Anyway, I think we'll end it on good terms here. I promised myself to not engage in time and energy consuming discussions this year and here I am doing it again.
Have a good weekend all!