Is Price an illusion?

[.sigma]

Does price even really move? Of course price exists, but the facilitation of price, the ebb and flow of "current" cy, the fluidity of liquidity in the markets oceans where we traders like captains of ships scale the seas for tradewinds to navigate, so that our trades win.

Yeah overtime price trends upward which obviously makes sense for many reasons, that's not the debate. The debate is the PATH that price took to reach that upward trend, the distribution of the magnitude of the movement. Price clusters at the money and price really doesnt move the majority of the time, look at any chart, most underlying just drift aimlessly up, but up/down days are constantly equal.

Thoughts?

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Does price even really move? Of course price exists, but the facilitation of price, the ebb and flow of "current" cy, the fluidity of liquidity in the markets oceans where we traders like captains of ships scale the seas for tradewinds to navigate, so that our trades win.

Yeah overtime price trends upward which obviously makes sense for many reasons, that's not the debate. The debate is the PATH that price took to reach that upward trend, the distribution of the magnitude of the movement. Price clusters at the money and price really doesnt move the majority of the time, look at any chart, most underlying just drift aimlessly up, but up/down days are constantly equal.

Thoughts?

Agreed.

Most of the time price is operating on its own, but sometimes external forces act on it and that's when I think you can make the most money.

 

[dozu888]

Does price even really move? Of course price exists, but the facilitation of price, the ebb and flow of "current" cy, the fluidity of liquidity in the markets oceans where we traders like captains of ships scale the seas for tradewinds to navigate, so that our trades win.

Yeah overtime price trends upward which obviously makes sense for many reasons, that's not the debate. The debate is the PATH that price took to reach that upward trend, the distribution of the magnitude of the movement. Price clusters at the money and price really doesnt move the majority of the time, look at any chart, most underlying just drift aimlessly up, but up/down days are constantly equal.

Thoughts?

I have explained everything in my thread 'trading is easy'.

upward drift, for sure... Fed is printing and valuations are dirt cheap.

but, my boys cant allow short term speculators to ride the rally train to heaven hence the shakes are needed, like this BIG one we are almost thru, right now.

 

[Nobert]

Depends on the timeframe.

The smaller time frame, the more of paranormal activity there is, but if you're going to monthly candles, eventually, if its a crap (be it equity or Argentiny bonds) - it will hit the bottom.

No illusions there.
(ofcourse, there are, prolonged exceptions, Theranos, Enron & all of those stories)

The tragedy of a genius is, that he thinks that he can predict, the exact time of that happening.
Like in some quantum physics test.

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Michael Burry, it was 5-7~ months, between zero & hero.
Between trailer park and +500%.
Even he had, the exact/correct data.
CDO's back then were 2T, and recently fed pumped in 2T.
Imagine they have done that - back then.

Meanwhile, some $5Bil hedge fund, makes a $1B bet, on Argentina, based on prediction, gets it wrong, - down 20% per annum.

In Market Wizards, first book, they wrote about this guy, had 200 Mil (pounds/dollars, - not sure),
Made a bet with huge leverage based on prediction/illusion -

,,hello trailer park''

But, if one is intelligent, avoids predicting and instead acts according to plan, while preparations has been made - man, hes in good shoes.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

CDO's back then were 2T, and recently fed pumped in 2T.
Imagine they have done that - back then.

Do you think the next Burry was just destroyed by this move?

 

[Nobert]

Do you think the next Burry was just destroyed by this move?

Have no idea, that would be only a guess/speculation.

Would depend on how big one went against(short) in a specific sector,
when those position were open,
was it equities/options (if not, then what kind of derivative),
did he used the leverage,
what about his clients reactions (some intelligent people (at least i considered them to be intelligent) went nuts during the virus & that could have had an effect on his bet)

and most important, how much from those 2T were directed to save that sector.

And for all of this i have absolute 0 data,
(focusing on my own work, 100% ignoring the madness out there, ET is the only source for news atm)

thus - no idea.

There's CLO's born, maybe that will bring new movies.

 

[zdreg]

upward drift, for sure... Fed is printing and valuations are dirt cheap.

The Fed and central banks are the greatest creators of inflation that man has invented. That's why real estate continues to go up.

 

[Sekiyo]

Does price even really move? Of course price exists, but the facilitation of price, the ebb and flow of "current" cy, the fluidity of liquidity in the markets oceans where we traders like captains of ships scale the seas for tradewinds to navigate, so that our trades win.


Yeah overtime price trends upward which obviously makes sense for many reasons, that's not the debate. The debate is the PATH that price took to reach that upward trend, the distribution of the magnitude of the movement. Price clusters at the money and price really doesnt move the majority of the time, look at any chart, most underlying just drift aimlessly up, but up/down days are constantly equal.


Thoughts?

We know the price of everything,
But the value of nothing.


Of course price move,
There is a mean and a variance.


But I hear what you say,
Most of the time price is in drawdowns,
Markets and life in general, is tail dominated.


Meaning that once in a while there is signal,
Then then the rest is just noise around it.


Backwards history is crystal clear.
But forwards, there are a thousands paths.


One need to assess the potential,
The propensities, the distribution of a process.
What happens is just a fraction of what could happens.

 

[Sig]

Obviously life is an illusion, therefore price as something you observe must also be an illusion.

 

[schizo]

Does price even really move? Of course price exists, but the facilitation of price, the ebb and flow of "current" cy, the fluidity of liquidity in the markets oceans where we traders like captains of ships scale the seas for tradewinds to navigate, so that our trades win.

Yeah overtime price trends upward which obviously makes sense for many reasons, that's not the debate. The debate is the PATH that price took to reach that upward trend, the distribution of the magnitude of the movement. Price clusters at the money and price really doesnt move the majority of the time, look at any chart, most underlying just drift aimlessly up, but up/down days are constantly equal.

Thoughts?

"look at any chart, most underlying just drift aimlessly up/down..."

No, it doesn't meander aimlessly. It moves from one price magnet to another. You need to study price action, otherwise you will always remain a victim of price fluctuation, thinking it's all meaningless.