Is price action trading the most insightful(& most accurate)?

[murray t turtle]

Surely price which is not trending cannot be predicted to become a trend, and neither can the duration or consistency of an existing trend be predicted. Unless you know of a way?

%%
NO, not predict it as you rightly hinted .
BUT a good trender like SPY+ you may find better; uptrending SPY closing above 200 day moving average , most likely will offer many profits .So even when wrong- like i thought the last move would take out +slam 200day moving average-it did not. But no problem anyway................................................................................................,

 

[tomorton]

%%
NO, not predict it as you rightly hinted .
BUT a good trender like SPY+ you may find better; uptrending SPY closing above 200 day moving average , most likely will offer many profits .So even when wrong- like i thought the last move would take out +slam 200day moving average-it did not. But no problem anyway................................................................................................,

OK, got to accept some markets trend more readily and for longer than others. But within those contexts, surely there isn't a way to predict a trend will soon start, or the next trend will be in the best 10% of the year for that market.

In that sense these things are unpredictable. Which makes for one of the hardest rules to follow in trading - if you're a trend-follower (in SPY or whatever), you have to follow all of them.

 

[murray t turtle]

OK, got to accept some markets trend more readily and for longer than others. But within those contexts, surely there isn't a way to predict a trend will soon start, or the next trend will be in the best 10% of the year for that market.

In that sense these things are unpredictable. Which makes for one of the hardest rules to follow in trading - if you're a trend-follower (in SPY or whatever), you have to follow all of them.

%%
SPY is a good benchmark. I record it+ print plenty of paper charts, rather than trade it much . BUT SPY is up >17% YTD , that tells me, most likely to be a very good year, average SPY, YTD is about 11% or 12%. Plus dividends+ most likely you can find something better. Good SPY volume for summer.; even IF it sells SEPT.......................................................................................

 

[comagnum]

Most of us active traders use price action., however the entry signal you choose to use has far less bearing on your performance than risk/trade mgmt & your mind set.

Novice traders obsess over the wrong things, trade identification is majoring in minors.

 

[Overnight]

It can't be almost impossible to predict a coming new trend, but we should be able to tell if a new trend starting has "legs".

The best indicator for that, if there is one, would be the simple trend channel break, averaged out over a few different timeframes. No need for complicated formulae based on the numbers of nature.

 

[MattZ]

I've only been trading for about a year now, but i have probably few thousand hours of staring at the charts behind me. Also worth mentioning i track mostly crypto. And i would say a day in crypto might equal to a week or maybe even a month in traditional markets, but the principles are the same. So you get to learn every trick in the book(read as: you get screwed), much faster.

I would highly recommend that when you study the markets (with whatever approach) stick to highly liquidated, regulated markets. Crypto (unfortunately) is not one of them because they are, in my opinion, fake volumes of algos trading between one another. If you do some research, you would see that just about five exchnages are potentially showing the right sizes. I am not even going to mention lower level coins that are a complete fake.

You seem to suggest that trading crypto holds the same principles as traditional and more mature markets. Again, only my opinion, but if you focus on other markets that have a "slower" pace, you could journal it, take corrective actions, and apply risk management that may serve you for the years to come. Also, the cost of execution on Crypto is tough to overcome if you are a short term trader.

I hope this helps.

 

[Reactive Analytics]

People trade using all sorts of indicators from moving averages to MACDs and RSI, and all of those might provide for a good and profitable trading strategy, but you don't really know what's actually happening.

Trading price action for me means using no indicators, only the naked chart. It consists of really in-depth knowledge of TA, that is; the candles and how they work, support&resistance levels(of all sorts) and tracking the market structure(lows&highs).

I also don't look at one chart only, but the market as a whole. Correlation and overall dynamics of the market are important. I don't look at volume, but i might use it as confluence, i find open interest far more interesting to see what's actually happening.

I've only been trading for about a year now, but i have probably few thousand hours of staring at the charts behind me. Also worth mentioning i track mostly crypto. And i would say a day in crypto might equal to a week or maybe even a month in traditional markets, but the principles are the same. So you get to learn every trick in the book(read as: you get screwed), much faster.

And even I, myself am surprised to the extent and reliability that the market moves can be predicted. So the question is, is PA trading, the most insightful and most accurate for predicting price moves? I believe so, and i also think that's how sophisticated trading bots work.

I also think predicting is the easy part. The hard one is to actually execute and trade properly, which i am struggling with at the moment. I don't think it can be done without a thorough trading plan/system. That's the good thing about moving average crossovers, MACDs, RSIs and what not... they are simple - you see a crossover, you buy.
The accuracy can also be a bad thing, because the fact is, you don't know what's actually going to happen and when you get on a streak and you think you know what's coming, you will bet big and blow it(speaking from experience lol).

Just a rant.. what are your thoughts? What would you attribute your trading success to(or lack thereof)? Is it based on good read on the market, having a good trading strategy, both, or something else?

Orbit, if I may offer a suggestion to consider. I don't know what chart environment you are using but try CVB Charts (Constant Volume Bar) charts along with your candlesticks. This gives you the advantage of using volume but you have it imbedded in the bars themselves so it doesn't became an extra distraction. Using them really smooths out the charts because it eliminates those huge news and reaction spikes.
RA

 

[Reactive Analytics]

People trade using all sorts of indicators from moving averages to MACDs and RSI, and all of those might provide for a good and profitable trading strategy, but you don't really know what's actually happening.

Trading price action for me means using no indicators, only the naked chart. It consists of really in-depth knowledge of TA, that is; the candles and how they work, support&resistance levels(of all sorts) and tracking the market structure(lows&highs).

I also don't look at one chart only, but the market as a whole. Correlation and overall dynamics of the market are important. I don't look at volume, but i might use it as confluence, i find open interest far more interesting to see what's actually happening.

I've only been trading for about a year now, but i have probably few thousand hours of staring at the charts behind me. Also worth mentioning i track mostly crypto. And i would say a day in crypto might equal to a week or maybe even a month in traditional markets, but the principles are the same. So you get to learn every trick in the book(read as: you get screwed), much faster.

And even I, myself am surprised to the extent and reliability that the market moves can be predicted. So the question is, is PA trading, the most insightful and most accurate for predicting price moves? I believe so, and i also think that's how sophisticated trading bots work.

I also think predicting is the easy part. The hard one is to actually execute and trade properly, which i am struggling with at the moment. I don't think it can be done without a thorough trading plan/system. That's the good thing about moving average crossovers, MACDs, RSIs and what not... they are simple - you see a crossover, you buy.
The accuracy can also be a bad thing, because the fact is, you don't know what's actually going to happen and when you get on a streak and you think you know what's coming, you will bet big and blow it(speaking from experience lol).

Just a rant.. what are your thoughts? What would you attribute your trading success to(or lack thereof)? Is it based on good read on the market, having a good trading strategy, both, or something else?

Orbit, one more thing. Don't think of what you are trying to achieve with PA trading as predicting so much as reacting. You want to react what is happening on the chart at any given moment to give you the greatest potential for profit until you see a specific reason to react again to either get out or reverse your position.

 

[Reactive Analytics]

And that is it in a nutshell.

I remember the joke about Elliot.
Man #1 - Do you know how to start a fight?
Man #2 - No, how?
Man #1 - Walk into an Elliot Wave seminar where they are discussing a chart and ask, "What wave are we on"? and walk out of the room. Immediately you will begin to hear glass break.

 

[Reactive Analytics]

Most of us active traders use price action., however the entry signal you choose to use has far less bearing on your performance than risk/trade mgmt & your mind set.

Novice traders obsess over the wrong things, trade identification is majoring in minors.

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It is so funny to read this post because it is extremely accurate. 15 years ago if you told someone that you trade only using price action you were thought to be wearing a tin foil hat and practicing pseudo science.