is now the best time to go short?

[bluematrix]

Quote from PlinytheTrader:

Hey i was just responding to your question of is this the BEST time to short. And i stick by my assertion that the BEST time to short any asset is when it actually is in a confirmed downtrend, and the market is in a massive up trend.

In reality though, I have the same views as you. This market is due for a pull back, but I am not going to try and call tops. Shorting in this market and then "praying" for the long awaited pull back is not my style of trading. So instead I will just wait for something to happen while sitting in cash. I am not going to buy anything at these levels, but I am also not going to try and go short against this irrational market. But if you have a set trading plan and have a set stop in place then go for it. Like I said you could look like a genius in the end.

shorting this market and calling a top are different things. i don't think anyone can call a top, it's just too random.

what I'm saying, is, there comes good times to short a market, even in a strong rally. my question was is todays level a good time to short? i.e. the next x points are to the upside or downside?

 

[PlinytheTrader]

Quote from S2007S:

The best time to go short is during a bear market???????????????


Hmmmmmmm

You dont know its a bear market until 20% is gone.....

A bear market is considered a drop of 20% or more, so basically you would have to wait until a 20% correction to finally go short these markets....by then it would probably jump 14%.

When this market falls its going to happen extremely quick, you will be unaware of the downside until its already happened, as for the upside in this market, all bull markets tire out, they dont last forever and this one has been going strong now for about 4+ years with gains of 140%++++ Do you really think there are 140% worth of gains in the next 4 years?

This sounds exactly like the rationale people have when they try to catch falling knives on crashing stocks. But what happens when there is no bounce or pullback, or when it does happen, you are so far out of the money, you need a 20% pull back just to get back to break even? There are plenty of threads on ET with people using the same rational who started shorting the market back at 1500 S&P. Now they need their 8-10% pull back just to cover their losses.

 

[PlinytheTrader]

Quote from bluematrix:

shorting this market and calling a top are different things. i don't think anyone can call a top, it's just too random.

what I'm saying, is, there comes good times to short a market, even in a strong rally. my question was is todays level a good time to short? i.e. the next x points are to the upside or downside?

Agreed, you can enter a good short without it actually being the proverbial top. I tend to think that at some point in the next 3-5 years, we will look back at these levels and just laugh, so that is why I agree that a longer term short is a good idea. However I have given up trying to understand this market and wouldn't' be surprised if it has a lot more room to run. Just look at the what the japanese markets have done since they started easing?

 

[Wide Tailz]

Quote from bluematrix:

it seems toppy.

Syntax error. "Seems" does not exist in the database of Trading Vocabulary.....

Strike 1

the question is, is it time to go long or short?

Evidently you do not trade based on tested rules, setups, exits or risk management parameterz.

Strike 2

are you long or short? based on those indicators i guss yes? and you think everyone, including the caveman should be long. and who's suppose to take the other side?

Long small caps, Ben Bernanke is taking the other side.

what will happen to all the cavemans gonig long for the last 50-70 points and how will they exit the trade with no impact all at the same time?

You are a very valuable contributor to this site because you share the prevailing opinion of suckerz worldwide. Cavemen know that you will try to out-think the situation and justify your feelings with intellectual gibberish. Then ask opinions of strangers, hoping to remove the discomfort you feel.

Strike 3

Feelings are for kids and moms, not price harnessing insects that have empirically calibrated sensors which tell them what to do at all times.....

 

[bluematrix]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

Syntax error. "Seems" does not exist in the database of Trading Vocabulary.....

Strike 1



Evidently you do not trade based on tested rules, setups, exits or risk management parameterz.

Strike 2



Long small caps, Ben Bernanke is taking the other side.



You are a very valuable contributor to this site because you share the prevailing opinion of suckerz worldwide. Cavemen know that you will try to out-think the situation and justify your feelings with intellectual gibberish. Then ask opinions of strangers, hoping to remove the discomfort you feel.

Strike 3

Feelings are for kids and moms, not price harnessing insects that have empirically calibrated sensors which tell them what to do at all times.....

from my experience on this site, if you post a thread like i have you're bound to get a response like this.. where the response focuses on little words, breaks sentences down and trys to make me look like an idiot.

I'm not talking about set-ups, I think we all have our own ways of trading be it technical or not.

I'm trying to see what the general sentiment is on ET as a international board and enjoy knowing/learning of other peoples perspective, such the guy above who is riding all the technical indicators that suggest he should be long, which is useful, but i had my own questions.

btw, saying ben takes the other side is really rubbish, let's face it they are not buying stocks. they are pushing risk takers into stocks but i don't remember they outright buying stocks. so to say they take the other side is just rubbish isn't it?

and who talked about representations of cavemen and mother emotions? it seems you get gratification wording yourself like you're the know it all and everyone else is a caveman if they don't follow your set-ups and grand plans.

now answer the question are u long or short at this level?

 

[FreakofNature]

Short long term, long short term.

Sell near term puts and buy long term.

Use the near term gains to invest on the long term.

 

[brokerboy]

i don't think you have an once of common sense either and i am more bearish. you don't seem to have an idea of how things work. the bond market is the bubble the fed made so if you live off interest you are in a lot of trouble. the only game is the stock market because its moving up so that bond person is buying stocks for the div and hoping for a little cream with it. than of top of that companies are borrowing because interest is so low and doing stock buy backs. than you also have margin issues going on with hedge funds because the interest rate is so low its worth the risk. how is it rubbish?

Quote from bluematrix:



btw, saying ben takes the other side is really rubbish, let's face it they are not buying stocks. they are pushing risk takers into stocks but i don't remember they outright buying stocks. so to say they take the other side is just rubbish isn't it?

 

[bluematrix]

Quote from brokerboy:

i don't think you have an once of common sense either and i am more bearish. you don't seem to have an idea of how things work. the bond market is the bubble the fed made so if you live off interest you are in a lot of trouble. the only game is the stock market because its moving up so that bond person is buying stocks for the div and hoping for a little cream with it. than of top of that companies are borrowing because interest is so low and doing stock buy backs. than you also have margin issues going on with hedge funds because the interest rate is so low its worth the risk. how is it rubbish?

what on earth u on about?

I was reffering to Wide Tailz, that suggested Ben is taking the other side of every ES trade as all cavemen go long on it.

what i said is, i don't remember Ben saying they are buying stocks outright. yes they have forced risk takers into stocks (for that extra yield), but not buying stocks outright. hence to say Ben is taking the other side is utter bull shit isn't it? am i wrong? as the other side is just another risk taker, be it a Wide Tailz, a caveman, a bond manager who now is after equity divs and so on. but not the Fed - as far as i know they are buying treasuries and abs. is that clear? so basically the other side is just another party with limited means who doesn't have unlimited liquidity as Tailz suggested. i.e. buy everything and don't worry about the other side at all.

 

[brokerboy]

again by buying 85 billion per month and having 0% interest rate he is taking the other side. what do you think he is doing when adding a few trillion on his balance sheet and making bank savers 0 money? if you need a more real example he bought aig for scrap metal and juiced up the market than sold it for a big profit. he bought all the bad debts in the market that is taking the other side.

Quote from bluematrix:

what on earth u on about?

I was reffering to Wide Tailz, that suggested Ben is taking the other side of every ES trade as all cavemen go long on it.

what i said is, i don't remember Ben saying they are buying stocks outright. yes they have forced risk takers into stocks (for that extra yield), but not buying stocks outright. hence to say Ben is taking the other side is utter bull shit isn't it? am i wrong? as the other side is just another risk taker, be it a Wide Tailz, a caveman, a bond manager who now is after equity divs and so on. but not the Fed - as far as i know they are buying treasuries and abs. is that clear? so basically the other side is just another party with limited means who doesn't have unlimited liquidity as Tailz suggested. i.e. buy everything and don't worry about the other side at all.

 

[bluematrix]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

There is nothing crazy about current markets, its a normal bull market with a reasonable but not cheap P/E ( it was cheap in fall 2011 and people still posted these bs threads on here saying the market was overpriced and would crash ).

Why do you insist on calling a market "crazy" when by all normal historical measurements its not ? Were you too young to experience the late 1990s when internet companies with NO revenue were in a bubble ? This market is nothing like that, its people investing money in extremely profitable companies. Net inflows into equity based etfs/funds for example were huge recently. This is what pushes the market forward not the "fed".

Sure, if you think the current bull leg is pretty much over ( and its not a bad guess really ), then simply go flat. Get out of the market and wait. But PLEASE stop posting bs threads based on nothing substantial except pure EMOTION. If you don't understand the market get out. Wait until you do.

again I'm not talking P/Es, I'm talking rate of growth and possible pull backs in spx given that we've alerady had a 20% since november. It's crazy that if you look at the consistant buy of the dips, correlation to other asset classes, volatility and everything in full picture, then it's one of the rarest market environments. young or old, know economics in 98 to .com was actually in decent shape. if u look at macros, commoditys, everything u can think of relative to speed of equities, it's not such a 'normal' as u like to think of it. i'm no value investor looking at P/Es or etf inflows (who in my view are always late anyhow) but i'm talking ES and a possible pull-back. are we going up 50 points next week or down? that's the question.