finally... a very intelligent point about spending and the economy... made on another thread about europe..
GDP is the wrong measure...
GDP is the wrong measure...
Quote from Ed Breen:
No, printing press wont work it would destroy the Euro and the common area economies just the same. It is the same as default but worse. I said the GDP was a lousy growth metric and I see you don't understand that becuase you assume you can raise GDP through monetary inflation and demand stimulus. You can do that with nominal GDP but you don't really grow and you destroy your continuing access to credit just the same as if you default. With no new money coming in and simply printing of Euro's to make common area sovereign loans you would end up with a destroyed (Hyperinflated Currency), which would destroy common area fixed asset values.
The problem with using GDP as a growth metric is that it is actually a spending metric. The only part of GDP that is related to real growth is the 'investment' componant. The consumption componant is not a growth measure. The government spending componant is not a growth measure. Using debt or monetary inflation to increase consumption and government spending at the expense of investment is the opposite of growth.
The reason that Europe has a growth proplem is because the ration of the 'investment componant' to GDP, Investment/GDP, has been declining for 50 years. Compare the investment/GDP in Germany with the investment/GDP of Italy over the past 50 years and you will see how Italy went flat. Consider that the investment/GDP ratio in China today is about 45%....in the U.S. it is about 15%....in the 1950's the U.S. investment/GDP used to be about 55%.
Europe does not need to reduce its debt/Nominal GDP....it needs to increase its Investment/GDP.
