Is my career over?

Quote from eusdaiki:

Good effort on that trade... I´ve never traded bonds... I´ll give em a shot sometime...

Yeah I don´t ever try to do any trading based on math models... or statistics... I don´t even like applying elliot waves and fibbonnacci to the market... but it does entretain me to theorize and fit economic models to the market... it gives me something to do when the tape is not printing... and it sometimes helps me understand certain things that I see in the bahaviour of the market.
I think you´re right about illiquid markets... Im thinking that perhaps there isn´t such a thing as a perfectly efficient market, just like there isn´t such a thing as perfect competition... or perhaps we should go to the other extreme as to say that liquid markets are always efficient in a given moment in time, however they constantly become inefficient and are forced to correct themselves in the light of new information {therefore, ceteris paribus markets are efficient and it is imposible to make money in them... however there is no such thing as ceteris paribus in the markets for any time frame longer than an instant... creating an endless flow of oportunities to make money...}


I´ve actually found plenty of flaus in economic equilibrium models, like the ones used by the WTO to support free trade, mostly because they fail to acknowledge the fact that price is always changing.

As for chaos theory, the part of it that I´ve seen in the markets is the one that explain how random price movements in very short time frames can lead to predictable patterns, it happens all over nature, in your lungs, the shape of spiral galaxies, finantial markets, precipitation patterns... seemingly random events {chaos} can bring ordered patterns... this is also the part of the chaos theory that concerns fractals, and the part that links everything to the fibonnacci sequence. I dont believe in coincidences, specially in events that are unlike to be correlated... I belive that there is a relation beyond our understanding... and I dont think we´ll ever come to comprehend such knowledge... a true theory of everything, one that links finantials, biologicals, astronomy, physics and God knows what else. Kind of like the movie Pi.
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I agree with most of what you say. I don't know if markets are efficient. I tend toward believing that they are not.
 
It seems like you crashed and burned without really taking off. I always say your one trade away from your last trade. It takes a year to make money that is enough to support yourself financially in this profession. It seems like you never had the proper guidance to get yourself going in the right direction.
 
Quote from FITENOB:

truthseeker,

have you ever attempted at trading the spread
5/10 or 10/30 spread much more consistent over trying to scalp
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I've tried trading the FITE and NOB. I've even messed around with butterfly spreads (buy 5 year sell 10 year, buy 30 year) I always found myself risking a half to make a half. Basically a losers game. Upside potential is not that great in spreads. Spreading is basically a hedging strategy...low risk low reward. For some people, that style is perfect....just not for me.... I knew a guy that was trading 900 by 600 FITEs. I thought he was making his firm a shitload of money but at the end of the year they gave him a measly $30,000 bonus.....So even with large lot trading, the FITE doesn't seem to be a viable strategy. Now if you trade 900 lots in the 10 year outright, you can make MASSIVE amounts of $$$. Of course, there is considerably more risk in doing that but each trader has his/her own style that suits him/her.

Today I traded ZI for the first time. I saw it breaking out of its high of 11.875. I scaled up above that high and made a very good profit (sold at 12.143).

Lately, everything I touch has been turning to gold. This is where the old me comes in and says "put a 60 lot trade in when you feel very sure about something". I have to fight that. Though being maxed out completely when you are right can pay dividends, I can't handle the $1900 per tick move in bonds if I were to do that. Obviously, I would have to cut my loss at one tick if I were to do this. I will fight against this idea until the end. It is a very bad thing for me to be thinking about. When I get up to $40,000, I will increase my position size to 9 as planned. and THAT'S IT!!! This friday may bring me up there with employment....let's see how badly ADP did this time...

anyways, thanks for the response
 
Quote from jkortman:

It seems like you crashed and burned without really taking off. I always say your one trade away from your last trade. It takes a year to make money that is enough to support yourself financially in this profession. It seems like you never had the proper guidance to get yourself going in the right direction.
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Trading is a one-man show. The only guidance I need is from God. That said, I've made a good come back. I know that I have a long way to go before I am truly succesful. Believe it or not, I thank God for my losses; i feel I've learned so much from them.
 
Quote from TruthSeeker247:

Today I traded ZI for the first time. I saw it breaking out of its high of 11.875. I scaled up above that high and made a very good profit (sold at 12.143).
...
Lately, everything I touch has been turning to gold. This is where the old me comes in and says "put a 60 lot trade in when you feel very sure about something". I have to fight that.
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You REALLY don't want to be trading ZI if you have to struggle to fight that urge. Do yourself a favor and take it off your screen! :)
 
Quote from illiquid:

You REALLY don't want to be trading ZI if you have to struggle to fight that urge. Do yourself a favor and take it off your screen! :)
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ZI margins are too high for me to do anything too stupid anyways. I only bought it because I saw it breaking out. I generally do not buy or sell anything other than 30 year bonds (sometimes 2 year notes too). That's about it.

I should have made so much money today. I basically sat out the whole time out of fear.....now there's another issue I have to deal with.....

Should have bought on low employment. Everyone thinks this means the FED will not be raising rates come tuesday. But do we really have the FED figured out? All I know is that if they raise rates on Tuesday, I'm going to be instantly rich because I will immediately max out a short position in Bonds. I will only max myself out in rare cases like this......of course, I'll scale myself into a max position and cut losses if things do not go my way...we'll see what happens....
 
Down to just over $35,000 now. Today really sucked for bonds.....i guess I should have known that a a fed pause was already priced in hence the lack of upward movement in bonds today. I can't complain....I've done nothing but buy 30 years ove rhte last 5 or so weeks and I've made a hell of a lot of money doing it too.

I watched the currencies today also and was just bewildered at what I saw happen to EUR-USD and USD-JPY. Both pairs moved sharply in opposite directions on the fed pause yet 10 minutes later they went right back to where they were before the announcement.

Sometimes I really find it difficult to understand why markets move the way they do. I've seen bonds rally to highs only to go back to where they started at in the morning. I've seen this happen so many times. Now i see the same thing happening with currencies. Why go all the way up if you are just going to come right back down again? Is the market that bent toward screwing people who bought the highs? I'd love some opinions on this.
 
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