Is it time to go to cash? Ideas, Sentiment and timing thread.

J

jem

Goldman said today there will be zero growth in 2020.
When I was daytrader (profitable) many years ago... I learned to fade goldman.
On Nasdaq stocks you could watch them fade themselves.

But, I have no feel for short term market action now because I don't have any daytrading money on the line.

But I have to make some decisions about long term money.
Just to give you some of my sentiment.
I have been long in one account for years...
I have held through every pullback because I saw no fundamental reason to get out.

Now... I am concerned.
Honestly I have not been concerned about long term money for years.
Now I am.

That alone tells me it time to reconsider time frames and percentages.


So... I would like to everyone's opinion.

Is it different now?


1. all opinions welcome.
2. If you are profitable... feel free to identify profitability and normal time frame
3. If you wish to make calls... please do so... but inform us as to whether you are in the trade or not.

By the way nobody should take anyone's opinion here as gospel. This should all be money you are willing to risk.
 
3400 on froth (but good earnings/fundamentals) was the time to get out.
3000 on fear (but good earnings/fundamentals, albeit with *some* *inkling* of hurt on earnings/fundamentals for a quarter or two...) is NOT the time to get out. It is the buying opportunity of 2020.
 
Who would've thought a market that is completely fake with fake capital injections and record low earnings would fall through the floor at the first possible chance it could. (Dow 19,000 anyone? Where it should be?)

Maybe next time daddy Fed and Trump won't be so keen to prop up the market with fake value for the sake of politics.


I'm just going to hold what I have and store cash. Once earnings turn around I'll buy more. Until then I'm worried that supply chain disruption will have a multiple quarter negative effect on earnings.
 
Bulls are running to mama, Fed has to cut
Screen Shot 2020-02-27 at 3.57.07 PM.png
 
gaussian said:
Who would've thought a market that is completely fake with fake capital injections and record low earnings would fall through the floor at the first possible chance it could. (Dow 19,000 anyone? Where it should be?)
More...

Trumpy now has a cover. If the markets tank and the economy (US and world) goes into recession, it will get blamed on the virus. The electorate can't hold that against him.
 
jem said:
Is it different now?
More...

Well, the sequence of down days we've seen this week is indeed very different from prior corrections. This is a crash - not a normal correction.

Where to from here? No idea. But 20 % down takes us to 2715 on ES/SPX.
 
When everyone is in widespread panic mode, that is the time to be cool and collected. It might be a contradiction but, it isn't. Majority of traders are wrong most of the time because of several reasons: 1) they are too arrogant and does not respect the market and its risks, they have no risk management, 2) they believe they know more than the market, 3) they believe they are super traders and geniuses who knows more than the hedge funds, big traders who actually run the markets? So, if you did not practice any risk management, you probably, lost most of your monies thru your own doing. Too late to save what was lost. Learn to manage your monies you use for trading. What will bring this market up is the same people that brought it down. The big traders, hedge funds, big banks and big brokers who trade the stockmarket. They are the ones who have the monies to buy these same stocks. Most retail traders have already lost their heads. Study the stockcharts for signs of a reversal. That is the time to get back in. I am staying put and not making any moves. Total risk for me was 10% of my capital with 1 trade profitable, 1 trade slightly below water, 3 losing trades. Considering the carnage, I did okay.
 
I went to cash (mostly) in late Dec. Thought I had jumped the gun.
I've been buying MTUM and have a couple of others I'm looking to buy.
NET and PTON have held up pretty well here.
I don't know when, but one of these days we will get a "rip your face off rally".

Lowry's Research has a good white paper on stock market bottoms. You can d/l for free.

https://www.lowryresearch.com/Research/WhitePapers
 
Virus jumping the quarantine changed things. Really tough to call at this point IMO. There are probably already thousands of cases in the USA, so it's entirely possible things will escalate dramatically in the next 2-3 weeks, leading to mass production shutdowns, school closures, etc.

Eventually the acute phase will pass and you can bet CBs and governments around the world will be jamming the accelerator to the floor. The problem for U.S. markets is going to be the potential Sanders victory, which will weigh on things as we move into summer. So, perhaps all the liquidity will find somewhere else to go.
 
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