Is it possible to time the market?

[janbillian]

@Steve Alexander : you made "only" 12% in a year when the S&P 500 tanked aka lost around 40%, now it's an annual return of 150% for you ?

Makes me wonder why you spend time in forums like these where small retail investors aka little people are present and don't work / consult top firms like Citadel Securities or D.E. Shaw, to name a few ?

 

[deaddog]

BUT ... most investors underperform "buy and hold", another words for most investors market timing does not add value but actually substract value .

Why do you think that happens?

 

[murray t turtle]

No, you could probably squeeze more from it if you tried harder.

%%
ITS possible, anything is possible ; but that last dime of profit tends to be waaaaaay to expensive\counterproductive. SPY actually has a management fee + bid\ ask spread, s that's another difference
Even the top 20% that outperform that benchmark\doing it for 10 years is a whole different deal..............................................................WONDER why they call it weather forecasting + not weather prediction??

 

[janbillian]

Why do you think that happens?

Serious question ? I'd say it's selfexplanatory.

 

[deaddog]

Serious question ? I'd say it's selfexplanatory.

Yes serious question. If you know why, there might be something in your control to prevent it or at least take advantage of it.

 

[Ackerman]

I think no. Especially now when everything is "shaking" and does not have a stable basis. Thus, the so-called mega millions rules work differently in a variety of countries, as I have read in this https://lottothrill.com/mega-millions/mega-millions-rules-and-odds/ article. We will see how everything will be in the future. I just hope there will be no Big War.

 

[Steve Alexander]

I've been timing the markets for over 50 years. I lost money the first 14 years. Since then, I have made a profit every year. The most recent 4 years I have made over 100% profit each year. Next year? We'll see.

 

[unconventional wisdom]

I think it’s possible but requires superhuman patience and an understanding of the length of life that is nearly impossible for us to comprehend. For mere mortals, a few lucky guesses can make a huge difference— and dollar-cost-averaging.