This thread has gotten a bit stupid as watching videos and talking about statistics and probability is really dumb compared to seeing something written down in black and white. I loath videos because of the time they consume compared to reading a PDF file. Plus, you can't "mark up" or comment on a video.
Is it possible to increase the mathematical expectation?
- Thread starter MrAgi1
- Start date
There is a way with those Forex prop firms like FTMO and MyForexFunds to give an example. They provide value for your money as you get additional room or Drawdown to trade with. Thus you do not need any positive expectancy just a good or few runups to make or extract some money out of those props. Just read about the rules and do your math here. The only way I know to increase your mathematical expectation with having only zero edge.
hahaha. U ask for maths and now it seems it gives you a headache. So be careful what you wish for next time. The video is just a glimpse. If u want to go in depth you need to take a college course on statistic or go to the library and read some books about statistics. But I know that gets boring. You want someone to spoon feed you. If u can’t handle a 10 minutes YouTube video, how are u gonna handle a book or a college course on statistics?
And as such, it's pretty much worthless.
I've got a masters degree in finance. Please just keep on feeding us worthless, time-consuming videos and quips. There is no meat to your responses.
Some of the stuff in this thread is interesting but the problem is finding enough uncorrelated bets with true independence. I just don't see how that is possible as a single individual, you would need a giant team.
Anything using coin flips and simulation to me is just nothing like what anyone is doing here. 10 independent uncorrelated bets in space is just so different than 10 dependent correlated bets in time.
I think the rebalancing strategies would work if you had a sports betting strategy and a stock trading strategy that you are rebalancing between the two. That would give you independence like two coins.
That one chart shows what happens with correlation and Parrondo’s Paradox. Correlation causes all of this to break down and basically match your intuition that none of this would work.
Anything using coin flips and simulation to me is just nothing like what anyone is doing here. 10 independent uncorrelated bets in space is just so different than 10 dependent correlated bets in time.
I think the rebalancing strategies would work if you had a sports betting strategy and a stock trading strategy that you are rebalancing between the two. That would give you independence like two coins.
That one chart shows what happens with correlation and Parrondo’s Paradox. Correlation causes all of this to break down and basically match your intuition that none of this would work.
No.
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Something To Think About...
Question: If you want to start betting on fair 50/50 coin flips, can you jiggle your bets around and have positive expectation (sometimes referred to as Edge)?
Answer: No.
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If you are engaged in professional gambling/trading/etc, think about:
Edge
Risk management
Opportunity cost
Values
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Haha.
What I wrote has been well proven and is a first principle.
Successful professional gamblers, casinos, and quant funds operate on the principles I just wrote on.
Scanning the posts of yours I can quickly find (your total posts are not available for all members to search for) I will say that you seem to be here to argue and troll over incorrect ideas that you already hold, rather than trying to learn.
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