a new trader in this environment has the same chance to survive than in previous periods.
the issue is this : in the previous period everyone was a trader.. well at least they thought so.
it was a great time because so many thought that way. we had a nice pyramid scheme going (well mostly from the funds anyway, but traders helped).
we are still in the same game. only the level and direction is different. the game did not change.
but amateurs will get killed, that's for sure.
so a rookie must be very professional. use pro methods (as opposed to betting on sectors, hype or news). use good broker and software. and as others pointed out, know precisely in advance what he is supposed to do or not.
there must be training..
let me make a comparison : during the last part of the bull market, everyone could pretend he is a space shuttle pilot. and the thing was going up and up.
now, reality is back : you just can't jump in and fly this thing.
still, too many traders wannabe just expect they can do it (without any serious training, just reading a few books and use their 'instinct'). well, it does not work for the shuttle, it does not work for trading (everything being equal, of course trading is not rocket science).
still, can a new pilot become a shuttle pilot ? of course yes. even now.
a new trader can make a good living in this environment too. the recipe is the same : very good training, knowledge and practice, practice, practice. NASA has simulators too you know
tntneo